000
FXUS61 KILN 181405
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A SLOW MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY. INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY IN AN ARC ROUGHLY FROM DAY TO VTA TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING FORCING
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE CHANCE OF PCPN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE ERN/SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 18.00Z GFS AND THE 18.00Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPR LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
S/WV RIDGING TO BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE LINGERING TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. S/WV RIDGE IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD PREVENT PCPN THERE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE
REGION AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE
FAR NW WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE UPR
LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACRS WRN
AND NRN LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA IS UNDER A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE AVERAGE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW BR WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO FORM TODAY WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DECREASE
IN A REGIME OF CALM WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
000
FXUS61 KILN 181032
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A SLOW MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR
TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING FORCING WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE CHANCE OF PCPN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE ERN/SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 18.00Z GFS AND THE 18.00Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPR LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
S/WV RIDGING TO BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE LINGERING TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. S/WV RIDGE IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD PREVENT PCPN THERE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE
REGION AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE
FAR NW WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE UPR
LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACRS WRN
AND NRN LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE FOR GENERALLY-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND INSIGNIFICANT
TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH MVFR CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE LOCATED
NOT FAR AWAY IN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...VFR CEILINGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS COMING
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THE STORMS SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING CAPABLE OF SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FORECAST MOST NOTABLY AT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...WITH A LOWER AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN
KDAY/KILN...AND EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR COLUMBUS.
TONIGHT...MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED THAN THIS PAST OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES. IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR KCVG/KLUK...WITH MVFR MIST
ELSEWHERE. THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO GET
INTO SOME LARGER-SCALE LOWER CEILINGS (PERHAPS MVFR
CATEGORY)...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180800
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A SLOW MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR
TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING FORCING WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE CHANCE OF PCPN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE ERN/SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 18.00Z GFS AND THE 18.00Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
UPR LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
S/WV RIDGING TO BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE LINGERING TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. S/WV RIDGE IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD PREVENT PCPN THERE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE
REGION AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE
FAR NW WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE UPR
LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACRS WRN
AND NRN LOCALES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
FOR GENERALLY-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...AND KLUK WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN THE IFR CATEGORY AS
USUAL. NEAR SUNRISE...THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AT THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES WILL BE LOWERING SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE
MVFR THRESHOLD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS COMING
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. BECAUSE OF THAT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST THIS
SPECIFICALLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE CINCINNATI
TAF SITES...AND LESS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK/HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180525
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO
SW OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE INSTBY THIS AFTN. THESE
STORMS MOVED NORTH AND HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTBY...LEAVING SOME SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS
THE NORTH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
NORTH BEFORE FALLING APART.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO SRN OHIO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM
WRN TN VLY INTO OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. CONTINUED TO GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
FOR GENERALLY-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNLIKELY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE...AND KLUK WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN THE IFR CATEGORY AS
USUAL. NEAR SUNRISE...THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AT THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES WILL BE LOWERING SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE
MVFR THRESHOLD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS COMING
AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
DISORGANIZED. BECAUSE OF THAT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO FORECAST THIS
SPECIFICALLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE CINCINNATI
TAF SITES...AND LESS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 180236
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1036 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED INTO
SW OHIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE INSTBY THIS AFTN. THESE
STORMS MOVED NORTH AND HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTBY...LEAVING SOME SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS
THE NORTH. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
NORTH BEFORE FALLING APART.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO SRN OHIO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE FROM
WRN TN VLY INTO OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. CONTINUED TO GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NR
IND TO CVG WHICH PROVIDED A FAVORABLE AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
BLYR CAPES AROUND 1R00 J/KG. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH BLYR CAPES DROPPING BELOW 1000
J/KG. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NRN TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL S/W OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO THE OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
SOME MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE A MENTION
OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AT KCVG/KLUK AND THEN
SAT MORNING AT KILN AND KDAY. WITH MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS DURG THE AFTN. BEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KILN 172349
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER THERE DOES SEEM TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND.
SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NR
IND TO CVG WHICH PROVIDED A FAVORABLE AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
BLYR CAPES AROUND 1R00 J/KG. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH BLYR CAPES DROPPING BELOW 1000
J/KG. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE NRN TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL S/W OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NE INTO THE OHIO OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
SOME MVFR BR LATER TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE A MENTION
OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AT KCVG/KLUK AND THEN
SAT MORNING AT KILN AND KDAY. WITH MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS DURG THE AFTN. BEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KILN 172312
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
712 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER THERE DOES SEEM TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND.
SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER MOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT UP INTO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN IS ROTATING UP
ACROSS KENTUCKY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CLOUDS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CU FIELD FARTHER
NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KMIE TO AROUND KILN AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THIS LINE TOO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO
SEE THEM DIE OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR BR LATER
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MANY BREAKS EXIST IN THE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 172031
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE LIFTING NORTH.
APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER
MOS FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO CONVECTION. BUT DO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO VARY
MUCH FROM A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT UP INTO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN IS ROTATING UP
ACROSS KENTUCKY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CLOUDS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CU FIELD FARTHER
NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KMIE TO AROUND KILN AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THIS LINE TOO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO
SEE THEM DIE OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR BR LATER
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MANY BREAKS EXIST IN THE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 171758
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINGERING DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN AREA OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE. FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
THOUGH...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 17.00Z GFS AND THE 16.12Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO DEPICT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL LOW THAN THE NAM/CMC. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOW PUSH INTO THE
OUR REGION...HUGGING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE AND INTERACT
WITH THIS UPR LVL FEATURE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
PERHAPS AN UPTICK ACRS THE FAR SWRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. ON SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPR LOW ACRS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THERE WITH DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS A WAVE WHILE IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID LVL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT...PEAKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO MORE OF A DIURNAL CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT UP INTO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN IS ROTATING UP
ACROSS KENTUCKY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
CLOUDS...THE AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE CU FIELD FARTHER
NORTH...STRETCHING FROM NEAR KMIE TO AROUND KILN AND WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THIS LINE TOO. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO
SEE THEM DIE OFF THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO
BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR BR LATER
TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES TOO...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MANY BREAKS EXIST IN THE CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 171341
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINGERING DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN AREA OF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE. FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK
THOUGH...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 17.00Z GFS AND THE 16.12Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO DEPICT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL LOW THAN THE NAM/CMC. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOW PUSH INTO THE
OUR REGION...HUGGING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE AND INTERACT
WITH THIS UPR LVL FEATURE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
PERHAPS AN UPTICK ACRS THE FAR SWRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. ON SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPR LOW ACRS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THERE WITH DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS A WAVE WHILE IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID LVL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT...PEAKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG...AS WELL AS
LOW CEILINGS (IN SOME CASES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS). GIVEN THE
THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE...THESE POOR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE IN AN OVERLY RAPID FASHION. THUS...LIFTING TO VFR
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN IN THE TAFS UNTIL 15Z...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP SLOWLY AND
PERHAPS EXTEND EVEN A LITTLE BEYOND THAT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE COMPUTER MODELS...PREVAILING SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECTK
DAY/KILN...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY. THE COLUMBUS TAF
SITES WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PREDICTED AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER THAT ANYTHING WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THERE. ALTHOUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS CURRENTLY DRY IN THE TAFS...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH VFR LOW AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THIS PAST OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP.
MVFR CONDITIONS (IFR AT KLUK) HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT HAS BEEN THIS MORNING...IF
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 171056
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SIZABLE AREA OF FOG HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND AMPLE GROUND/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH AND PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN
CWFA.
OTHERWISE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACRS THE NRN CWFA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE AN UPR LVL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FORCING TODAY IS WEAK SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...PEAKING DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AM EXPECTING THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS THE SRN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EXISTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD AND RAIN DEPENDENT...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 17.00Z GFS AND THE 16.12Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO DEPICT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL LOW THAN THE NAM/CMC. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOW PUSH INTO THE
OUR REGION...HUGGING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE AND INTERACT
WITH THIS UPR LVL FEATURE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
PERHAPS AN UPTICK ACRS THE FAR SWRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. ON SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPR LOW ACRS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THERE WITH DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS A WAVE WHILE IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID LVL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT...PEAKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COPIOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG...AS WELL AS
LOW CEILINGS (IN SOME CASES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS). GIVEN THE
THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE...THESE POOR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE IN AN OVERLY RAPID FASHION. THUS...LIFTING TO VFR
CONDITIONS HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN IN THE TAFS UNTIL 15Z...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP SLOWLY AND
PERHAPS EXTEND EVEN A LITTLE BEYOND THAT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE COMPUTER MODELS...PREVAILING SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECTK
DAY/KILN...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY. THE COLUMBUS TAF
SITES WILL BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PREDICTED AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER THAT ANYTHING WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THERE. ALTHOUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS CURRENTLY DRY IN THE TAFS...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH VFR LOW AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL
TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THIS PAST OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP.
MVFR CONDITIONS (IFR AT KLUK) HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT HAS BEEN THIS MORNING...IF
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170833
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
433 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SIZABLE AREA OF FOG HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND AMPLE GROUND/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH AND PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN
CWFA.
OTHERWISE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACRS THE NRN CWFA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...WHILE AN UPR LVL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FORCING TODAY IS WEAK SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...PEAKING DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AM EXPECTING THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS THE SRN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EXISTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD AND RAIN DEPENDENT...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 17.00Z GFS AND THE 16.12Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS THEY SEEM TO DEPICT THE MOVEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL LOW THAN THE NAM/CMC. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WELL.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN UPR LVL LOW WILL SLOW PUSH INTO THE
OUR REGION...HUGGING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE AND INTERACT
WITH THIS UPR LVL FEATURE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
PERHAPS AN UPTICK ACRS THE FAR SWRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. ON SATURDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPR LOW ACRS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THERE WITH DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND OPEN UP AS A WAVE WHILE IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID LVL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHILE THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT...PEAKING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 80S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW IN
CONFIDENCE...WITH NUMEROUS COMPLICATIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
AVIATION.
OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED OVER THE AREA...WITH MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS
(INCLUDING THE ILN AND LUK TAF SITES) SHOWING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THE COLUMBUS
TAF SITES...WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE TAFS
ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ONLY
MVFR AT KDAY.
THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY...A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...WHERE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING FOR
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR
RAIN/STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR CINCINNATI.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170618
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
218 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE...THE MIAMI
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. ELSEWHERE...FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE EXPANDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS...SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT THE PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION. WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW IN
CONFIDENCE...WITH NUMEROUS COMPLICATIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
AVIATION.
OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED OVER THE AREA...WITH MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS
(INCLUDING THE ILN AND LUK TAF SITES) SHOWING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THE COLUMBUS
TAF SITES...WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE TAFS
ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ONLY
MVFR AT KDAY.
THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY...A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...WHERE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING FOR
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR
RAIN/STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR CINCINNATI.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ053>056-
062>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170541
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE AS WELL. WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW IN
CONFIDENCE...WITH NUMEROUS COMPLICATIONS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
AVIATION.
OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...FOG SEEMS
TO BE FAVORED OVER THE AREA...WITH MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS
(INCLUDING THE ILN AND LUK TAF SITES) SHOWING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THE COLUMBUS
TAF SITES...WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SO...THE TAFS
ARE RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH ONLY
MVFR AT KDAY.
THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY...A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...WHERE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST. TIMING FOR
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR
RAIN/STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR CINCINNATI.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 162350
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE AS WELL. WITH
LIGHT WINDS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT
HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST
LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. APPEARS THAT FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT KCVG KLUK AND KILN WHERE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND RAIN OCCURRED AT OR NEAR THE STATIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
BUT HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER TO
IFR AT THIS POINT. DRIER AIR WILL SAG TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS
WHICH WERE ALSO NORTH OF TODAYS RAINFALL. SO EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THERE. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS
HIGHEST. BUT PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY EARLIER IN THE DAY.
JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KILN 162058
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD CONGEALED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THAT AREA AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. INITIAL UPDRAFTS WERE STRONG BUT
SHORT LIVED. INSTEAD REPEATED HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER NEAR A
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. IF CLOUDS BREAK LATER
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN
TODAY. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL AREA HAS
BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SO THINK THE MAIN AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE
ON KCVG/KLUK WILL BE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE ARE ALSO STARTING
TO SEE SOME SPOTTY REDEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN AREA OF
BETTER CLEARING BETWEEN KCVG/KDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THUNDER THREAT TO SOME OF THE
MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL JUST COVER WITH A VCSH AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WEAKENING/SHIFTING THE PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND WITH
AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE OVERNIGHT...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME BR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 161812
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ALONG
IT. THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AT THE MOMENT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THIS WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ML CAPES PUSHING UP INTO THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW
STORMS CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO
GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL AREA HAS
BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SO THINK THE MAIN AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE
ON KCVG/KLUK WILL BE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE ARE ALSO STARTING
TO SEE SOME SPOTTY REDEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN AREA OF
BETTER CLEARING BETWEEN KCVG/KDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THUNDER THREAT TO SOME OF THE
MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL JUST COVER WITH A VCSH AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WEAKENING/SHIFTING THE PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND WITH
AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE OVERNIGHT...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME BR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 161403
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ALONG
IT. THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AT THE MOMENT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND THIS WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ML CAPES PUSHING UP INTO THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW
STORMS CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL
SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO
GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE PORTIONS FA THIS
MORNING AS A FNT SAGS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LATEST MESO
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OR WORK E EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING.
THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN HOURS...SCT TSTM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TAFS. ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCT SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS AFT 18Z. DUE TO LACK
OF INSTABILITY IN THE NE...KEPT ONLY VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
ENDING. CARRIED THE AFTER VCTS UNTIL 02Z. SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING DEWPOINT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
FOG BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WENT WITH MVFR FOG AT LUK FOR NOW.
DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE PCPN FALL...OTHER LOCATIONS COULD BE
IMPACTED BY FOG.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 161038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAS LOST A LOT OF THE
LIGHTNING THAT WAS WITH IT EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT ONCE DAYLIGHT HITS THE COLUMN THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD BIT MORE ENERGY ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
LULL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE AREA IS
UNDER...REMOVING POPS AT ANY LOCATION IS NOT THE PRUDENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE PORTIONS FA THIS
MORNING AS A FNT SAGS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LATEST MESO
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE STORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OR WORK E EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING.
THEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN HOURS...SCT TSTM
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TAFS. ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCT SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS AFT 18Z. DUE TO LACK
OF INSTABILITY IN THE NE...KEPT ONLY VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
ENDING. CARRIED THE AFTER VCTS UNTIL 02Z. SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING DEWPOINT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
FOG BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WENT WITH MVFR FOG AT LUK FOR NOW.
DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE PCPN FALL...OTHER LOCATIONS COULD BE
IMPACTED BY FOG.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 160803
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR HAS LOST A LOT OF THE
LIGHTNING THAT WAS WITH IT EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT ONCE DAYLIGHT HITS THE COLUMN THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD BIT MORE ENERGY ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE
LULL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE AREA IS
UNDER...REMOVING POPS AT ANY LOCATION IS NOT THE PRUDENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH NO ONE
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A WASHOUT...OR PARTICULARLY DRY EITHER.
ZONE OF BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TONIGHT
TO THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH NO DISTINCT FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO KEY THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY BROAD LOWER LEVEL OF CONVERGENCE IN
A RECEPTIVE ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE NRN TAFS
ATTM. FINER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT NRN TAFS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE
WANING AND PULLING EAST.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TAFS. ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCT SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS AFT 18Z. DUE TO LACK
OF INSTABILITY IN THE NE...KEPT ONLY VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 160548
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS SAME EAST TO
WEST CORRIDOR AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INDIANA AND OHIO ZONES AND TAPERED THEM OFF FARTHER SOUTH AS
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHILE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT IS WORKING THROUGH THE NRN TAFS
ATTM. FINER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT NRN TAFS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE
WANING AND PULLING EAST.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TAFS. ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO BE SCT SO ONLY WENT WITH VCTS AFT 18Z. DUE TO LACK
OF INSTABILITY IN THE NE...KEPT ONLY VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 160153
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
953 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS SAME EAST TO
WEST CORRIDOR AND AREAS JUST SOUTH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INDIANA AND OHIO ZONES AND TAPERED THEM OFF FARTHER SOUTH AS
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHILE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE
FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ANY AT ALL) INTO THE TAF SITES. AMENDMENTS WILL
BE LIKELY. A FRONT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED
OFF...WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT AS OF THIS WRITING. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POINTS BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENT AXIS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING...AS A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. KDAY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS. ATTEMPTED TO TIME A VCTS
GROUP INTO ALL THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WANING TOWARD DAWN.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST
OF COLUMBUS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK VERSUS A VCTS
AT OTHER TAF SITES. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT
IN THE VICINITY...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KILN 152354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BY AND LARGE DISSIPATED. BUT
MANY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT ON HOW THIS MAY EVOLVE. IT
DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. SO HAVE KEPT A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS (IF ANY AT ALL) INTO THE TAF SITES. AMENDMENTS WILL
BE LIKELY. A FRONT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INDIANA. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED
OFF...WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT AS OF THIS WRITING. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POINTS BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND A
CONVERGENT AXIS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING...AS A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. KDAY APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS. ATTEMPTED TO TIME A VCTS
GROUP INTO ALL THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WANING TOWARD DAWN.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE MORNING...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST
OF COLUMBUS...SO ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH AT KCMH/KLCK VERSUS A VCTS
AT OTHER TAF SITES. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT
IN THE VICINITY...BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KILN 152034
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BY AND LARGE DISSIPATED. BUT
MANY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT ON HOW THIS MAY EVOLVE. IT
DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. SO HAVE KEPT A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE PCPN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EVEN THOSE SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING A CAP. AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH....WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF
THE INSTABILITY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH BETWEEN
THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND WILL TREND TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN
PCPN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SOME POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 151809
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LINGER BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OUR FA. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS VERY WARM WITH 19 DEGREES CELSIUS
AT 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 90S...BUT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO AROUND 14-15
DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST OF MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES UP INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A CAP THROUGH
AT EAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW SOON CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE LATER TODAY...IF AT ALL. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING TO GET GOING WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH AND PRETTY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN
DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT RAMP UP THE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 0Z AND ONLY NUDGED THEM
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG IT. IF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE
SOUTHERLY I COULD SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AS 925 WINDS ARE ALMOST DUE WEST AND
IT IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAT PROVIDES MOST OF THE
CONVERGENCE THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO USE TO GET
INITIATED...LET ALONE DEEPEN TO SEVERE LIMITS.
FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A NARROW FOCUS IN THIS
AREA...SPILLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AT TIMES.
NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS BEING SHOWN TO PUSH THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE CATEGORICAL PERIOD AT THIS TIME NOR INDICATE A REAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITS TO BE REACHED.
THE MOIST AIRMASS AND PROXIMITY OF THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS MILD TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS AFTER TODAY TO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE. AT THIS POINT EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE PCPN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EVEN THOSE SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING A CAP. AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH....WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF
THE INSTABILITY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH BETWEEN
THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND WILL TREND TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN
PCPN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SOME POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
| 
