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000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...BUT MADE THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS TRY
AND WORK BACK IN. WENT 0-5 ABOVE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND OVER TO THE MIAMI
VALLEY. LOCATIONS FROM CINCINNATI SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD STAY IN
THE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY
DROPPING SE THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO KENTUCKY WILL STAY TO THE SW
OF THE FA...SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE TRI-STATE
REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN INTO THE
H5 TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE WILL TAKE IT
DOWN TO THE SW OF CVG...SO THE BEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW TAFS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP ANY PCPN SW OF
CVG...SO LEFT THE TAF DRY. DID TAKE CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT AT
CVG...BUT LEFT A MID DECK AT LUK ALONG WITH ILN AND DAY.

AS THE SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST DEEPENS IT COULD THROW SOME LOW
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE ERN TAFS ON TUESDAY. BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO CMH/LCK
AROUND 14Z. WASNT AS CONFIDENT IN THE MVFR CIGS REACHING ILN...SO
ONLY WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFT 20Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 262120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE
EAST. UPSTREAM...A WEAK AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
IS WEAKENING JUST AS QUICKLY...AND IS FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH SOMEWHAT-FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
HELP SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST
AREA...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE ILN CWA APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
RECEIVE MUCH PRECIPITATION. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS INSERTED INTO
THE GRIDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CINCINNATI.

ALONG THE PATH OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN AT
THE HIGH END OF THE SCALE. HOWEVER...925MB/850MB MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WITH WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A SOLID AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES...AND OUTLYING OR LOW AREAS MAY GET WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND GENERALLY WEAK ADVECTION PATTERNS SETTING UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES...TUESDAY MAY END UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO
FORECAST A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP SOME VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THE ENTIRE MODEL SUITE HAS TAKEN A
DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DROP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...BUT EVEN A
SIMPLE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN...THOUGH MAINLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS). AT 925MB...A RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE TO CROSS EAST
THROUGH THE REGION...BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM NNE TO
SSW. THOUGH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE USED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN ON A TYPICAL
DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW PACK AND SNOW-LACK CUTTING
ACROSS THE CWA...IF ANY WARM ADVECTION CAN COMBINE WITH THE
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE FINAL NUMBERS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE
GRIDS...AND A MODEL BLEND WAS USED TO GET THE NUMBERS INTO
REASONABLE POSITION. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY COLD VALUES IN THE
CANADIAN MODEL WERE DISCARDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS STILL DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO
AFFECT THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHT SLOWER AND LITTLE MORE SHARPER WITH THE
SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE GFS
TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS
COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX...SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS NORTH. MINOR SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COLD START...ANY FREEZING
RAIN WILL POSE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MENTIONED THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING. PCPN SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 261750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 261750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRONOUNCED DRY PUNCH IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWER MVFR CLOUD DECK OUT
OF WESTERN TAF SITES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
BACKBUILDING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THAT WILL KEEP THE LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT
IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM MICHIGAN
SHOULD KEEP WESTERN TAF SITES AWAY FROM LOW STRATUS CIGS TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION ON NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BREAK SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING AT THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS THE STACKED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST
WRAPS AROUND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS










000
FXUS61 KILN 261505
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 261427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 261427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 261156
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS
ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ACTIVITY
ENDS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW HAS ALREADY CEASED.

CLOUD FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEN MID CLOUDS FROM
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 261156
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS
ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ACTIVITY
ENDS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW HAS ALREADY CEASED.

CLOUD FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEN MID CLOUDS FROM
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 260951
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS
ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ACTIVITY
ENDS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW HAS ALREADY CEASED.

CLOUD FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEN MID CLOUDS FROM
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ056-065-073-074.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-052>055-062>064-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 260951
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS
ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ACTIVITY
ENDS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW HAS ALREADY CEASED.

CLOUD FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEN MID CLOUDS FROM
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ056-065-073-074.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-052>055-062>064-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 260556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ042>046-051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ056-065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 260556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ042>046-051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ056-065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 260320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TAFS. RAIN-SNOW LINE WAS
NORTH OF KDAY-KCMH LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN BUT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THEM IN THE PAST FEW HOURS CHANGING THE PCPN TO SNOW. NRN TAFS
WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE SRN TAFS...THE 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE IT REACHING CVG-LUK-KILN AROUND 05Z. RAIN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO MVFR AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z IN THE W....BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z IN THE E.

WINDS WILL TURN NLY AT 13-15KT AND WILL GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR WORKS IN FORM THE N. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.

LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS AROUND 18Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 260320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID WEEK BEFORE
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 1304 1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM THE RAP IS
HANDLING THE CHANGEOVER NICELY. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE PCPN IN THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND THE BACKEDGE OF APPROACHING
NE MERCER COUNTY. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN THE PCPN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME SNOW NUMBERS AND CHANGEOVER
TIMING. DID SPEED UP THE ENDING OF THE SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

COLDER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE N A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
KNOCKED A DEGREE OR SO OFF PREVIOUS LOWS TONIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TAFS. RAIN-SNOW LINE WAS
NORTH OF KDAY-KCMH LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN BUT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THEM IN THE PAST FEW HOURS CHANGING THE PCPN TO SNOW. NRN TAFS
WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE SRN TAFS...THE 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE IT REACHING CVG-LUK-KILN AROUND 05Z. RAIN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO MVFR AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z IN THE W....BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z IN THE E.

WINDS WILL TURN NLY AT 13-15KT AND WILL GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR WORKS IN FORM THE N. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.

LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS AROUND 18Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 260022
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TAFS. RAIN-SNOW LINE WAS
NORTH OF KDAY-KCMH LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN BUT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THEM IN THE PAST FEW HOURS CHANGING THE PCPN TO SNOW. NRN TAFS
WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE SRN TAFS...THE 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE IT REACHING CVG-LUK-KILN AROUND 05Z. RAIN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO MVFR AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z IN THE W....BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z IN THE E.

WINDS WILL TURN NLY AT 13-15KT AND WILL GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR WORKS IN FORM THE N. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.

LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS AROUND 18Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 260022
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNTIES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TAFS. RAIN-SNOW LINE WAS
NORTH OF KDAY-KCMH LINE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN BUT HAS SAGGED SOUTH
OF THEM IN THE PAST FEW HOURS CHANGING THE PCPN TO SNOW. NRN TAFS
WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE SRN TAFS...THE 1000-850MB CRITICAL THICKNESS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE IT REACHING CVG-LUK-KILN AROUND 05Z. RAIN WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO MVFR AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 08Z IN THE W....BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z IN THE E.

WINDS WILL TURN NLY AT 13-15KT AND WILL GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD AIR WORKS IN FORM THE N. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY.

LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...SCATTERING OUT IN THE WRN TAFS AROUND 18Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 252148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 252148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 252148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 252148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR MID
WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STEADIER AT JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...A SLOWER
TRANSITION OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN ESPECIALLY THE NW FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOW ENE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEGINNING IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AND THEN NOT UNTIL
NEAR 03Z-04Z FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SNOW TOTALS IN
THE EAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE SLOWER DEPARTURE AND ANTICIPATED
LINGERING MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

WITH THIS VERY SLOW TRANSITION DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
PERIOD...WILL BE A VERY TIGHT N/S GRADIENT FROM 2" TO 4" FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH ISOLATED 5" TOTALS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLIFICATION AND THEREFOR SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...HAVE LINGERED SNOW ACCMULATIONS A LITTLE IN AREAS
S/E OF COLUMBUS WITH ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z AS WELL AS
ADDING A COUPLE OF COUNITES. SHOULD REMAIN A RUSH HOUR IMPACT IN
ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

LINGERING NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IN MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA...THEN WEAK SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE WEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. ONLY LOCATION TO
RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE IN THE FAR NW AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM ADVANCING WEAK S/WV FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO A WEAK
S/WV DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY JUST GRAZE OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A TANDEM OF S/WVS TO AFFECT THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND SHARPER WITH THE SECOND S/WV WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER.
HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
WARM SOME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A RACE
BETWEEN HOW FAST IT WARMS COMPARED TO WHEN THE ONSET OF PCPN BEGINS.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME MIXED PCPN
(-FZRA/-PL/-SN) EARLY ON BEFORE IT BECOMES RAIN/SNOW MIXED NORTH AND
RAIN SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS FOUR DAYS OUT
AND IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE CHANGING THERMAL FIELDS EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN/SNOW WORDING ATTM. PCPN SHOULD
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH PUSHES AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. WILL FORECAST
A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>055-060>064-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ056-065-
     073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 251749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 251749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 251653
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 251653
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 251152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 251152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 250947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 250947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 250947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 250947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 250613
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, AREAS IN
THE S AND W HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID CLOUDS WORKING E
TOWARDS THE AREA...SO SKY SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. HAVE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH.

00Z NAM HAS TRICKLED IN ALONG WITH SOME RAP AND HRRR AND THEY HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TOMORROW. SO
BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 250613
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, AREAS IN
THE S AND W HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID CLOUDS WORKING E
TOWARDS THE AREA...SO SKY SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. HAVE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH.

00Z NAM HAS TRICKLED IN ALONG WITH SOME RAP AND HRRR AND THEY HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TOMORROW. SO
BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO HAVE CIGS BECOME
VFR. ALTHOUGH CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR...MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES.

STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE TAF SITES RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AS THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE AREA CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ICE PELLETS AT KDAY FOR A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ICE PELLETS MIXING IN...LIMITED
MENTION TO A ONE HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT KDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 250255
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, AREAS IN
THE S AND W HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID CLOUDS WORKING E
TOWARDS THE AREA...SO SKY SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. HAVE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH.

00Z NAM HAS TRICKLED IN ALONG WITH SOME RAP AND HRRR AND THEY HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TOMORROW. SO
BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SERIES OF MVFR DECK CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION.
CVG/LUK/ILN HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT...BUT CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA HEADING BACK IN. IT WILL BE CLOSE IF CVG/LUK SEE MVFR
CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL WORK
IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING BACK OUT. FOR THE NRN
TAFS MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER ALL NIGHT LONG.

AFT 12Z SUNDAY...THE SRN TAFS WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
16-18Z. NRN TAFS WHICH WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL SEE THEM
FALL TOWARD IFR AS PCPN WORKS IN AROUND 15Z. ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN AT ALL THE TAFS THRU 21Z.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT DAY/CMH-LCK AROUND 21Z...DROPPING CIGS
AND VSBYS. THE SRN TAFS PROBABLY WONT SEE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250255
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, AREAS IN
THE S AND W HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MID CLOUDS WORKING E
TOWARDS THE AREA...SO SKY SHOULD GO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. HAVE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH.

00Z NAM HAS TRICKLED IN ALONG WITH SOME RAP AND HRRR AND THEY HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN TOMORROW. SO
BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN AT THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

PREVIOUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SERIES OF MVFR DECK CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION.
CVG/LUK/ILN HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT...BUT CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA HEADING BACK IN. IT WILL BE CLOSE IF CVG/LUK SEE MVFR
CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL WORK
IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING BACK OUT. FOR THE NRN
TAFS MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER ALL NIGHT LONG.

AFT 12Z SUNDAY...THE SRN TAFS WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
16-18Z. NRN TAFS WHICH WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL SEE THEM
FALL TOWARD IFR AS PCPN WORKS IN AROUND 15Z. ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN AT ALL THE TAFS THRU 21Z.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT DAY/CMH-LCK AROUND 21Z...DROPPING CIGS
AND VSBYS. THE SRN TAFS PROBABLY WONT SEE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 250042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM INDIANA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
LOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW EXISTS FROM
LAST NIGHTS TRICKY SNOW EVENT AND WHERE CLEARING MAY LAST THE
LONGEST. FOR NOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 30 TO LOW 30S. WHILE
BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
AREA...ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SERIES OF MVFR DECK CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION.
CVG/LUK/ILN HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT...BUT CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA HEADING BACK IN. IT WILL BE CLOSE IF CVG/LUK SEE MVFR
CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL WORK
IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING BACK OUT. FOR THE NRN
TAFS MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER ALL NIGHT LONG.

AFT 12Z SUNDAY...THE SRN TAFS WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
16-18Z. NRN TAFS WHICH WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL SEE THEM
FALL TOWARD IFR AS PCPN WORKS IN AROUND 15Z. ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN AT ALL THE TAFS THRU 21Z.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT DAY/CMH-LCK AROUND 21Z...DROPPING CIGS
AND VSBYS. THE SRN TAFS PROBABLY WONT SEE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM INDIANA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
LOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW EXISTS FROM
LAST NIGHTS TRICKY SNOW EVENT AND WHERE CLEARING MAY LAST THE
LONGEST. FOR NOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 30 TO LOW 30S. WHILE
BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
AREA...ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SERIES OF MVFR DECK CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION.
CVG/LUK/ILN HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT...BUT CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA HEADING BACK IN. IT WILL BE CLOSE IF CVG/LUK SEE MVFR
CIGS LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL WORK
IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING BACK OUT. FOR THE NRN
TAFS MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER ALL NIGHT LONG.

AFT 12Z SUNDAY...THE SRN TAFS WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
16-18Z. NRN TAFS WHICH WILL HAVE LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL SEE THEM
FALL TOWARD IFR AS PCPN WORKS IN AROUND 15Z. ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS RAIN AT ALL THE TAFS THRU 21Z.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT DAY/CMH-LCK AROUND 21Z...DROPPING CIGS
AND VSBYS. THE SRN TAFS PROBABLY WONT SEE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
UNTIL AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY THEN THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 242138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM INDIANA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
LOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW EXISTS FROM
LAST NIGHTS TRICKY SNOW EVENT AND WHERE CLEARING MAY LAST THE
LONGEST. FOR NOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 30 TO LOW 30S. WHILE
BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
AREA...ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.



&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD
GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 242138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING WORKING IN FROM INDIANA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
LOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A FRESH BLANKET OF SNOW EXISTS FROM
LAST NIGHTS TRICKY SNOW EVENT AND WHERE CLEARING MAY LAST THE
LONGEST. FOR NOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 30 TO LOW 30S. WHILE
BRINGING IN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
AREA...ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY SNOW FORECAST WITH SOME DIGGING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ONLY LOCATION TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SNOW BEING THE FAR NW. THE S/WV STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO FCST AREA. PRECIP IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE SLOWED ONSET SLIGHTLY...AND DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
OHIO...BEGAN SNOW ADVISORY AT 15Z/10AM. MOST LOCATIONS IN ADVISORY
WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES WITH SOME 6 INCH AMOUNTS...BUT THE TRICK IS IN
THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS GFS/ECMWF CONVERGING ON TRACK...WITH NAM WARMER AND SLOWER
WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
KDAY/KILN...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY NOT TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
7PM SUNDAY...WHICH IS BEHIND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IN THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY...WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EARLIER COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW
HERE...ALONG WITH HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH SNOW AT ONSET TO BE A 10:1 RATIO...THEN AS THE COLD AIR
DIGS INTO ESPECIALLY THE UPPER GREAT MIAMI VALLEY AND ST. MARYS
BASIN...RATIOS MORE IN THE 14:1 WITH THE COLDER AIR.

HAVE CONTINUED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TACTIC OF A BLEND OF MODEL 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT...AND THEN BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY HAS THE SYSTEM RETREATING WITH JUST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA YIELDING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TOTAL.

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK S/WV WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER WITH ITS PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST
WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE FARTHER EAST. HAVE GONE WITH THE LATTER WHICH
KEEPS CONTINUITY. THIS CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODIFY SOME BY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS.
A LEAD S/WV FOLLOWED BY A STRONG S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. PCPN SHOULD ENCROACH THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY. HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY PCPN ONSET WILL DETERMINE PCPN TYPE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THIS SYSTEM IS (GIVEN THAT IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT MIXED PCPN TYPE THIS FAR OUT). THE ENTIRE
REGION WILL LIKELY GO OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME THURSDAY AFTN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE PCPN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
BEFORE ENDING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF ATTM WHICH IS FASTER AND PUSHES AN
ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.



&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD
GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241714
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1214 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW-SE TODAY EVEN AS MUCH
OF CENTRAL OHIO STAYS UNDERNEATH A STRATUS DECK FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST CWA HAD ME CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE BY 5-7 DEGREES TODAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST GENERALLY THE SAME WRT MAX TEMPS AS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN BEFORE IT CLOUDS BACK UP.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE BECOMING MORE SPARING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL
OHIO. WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS AND
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TODAY. ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
COMING IN OVERNIGHT...DID NOT WANT A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY BUT
GIVEN THE NATURE OF TONIGHTS EVENT THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP TODAY
WEATHER-FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD
GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK










000
FXUS61 KILN 241714
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1214 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW-SE TODAY EVEN AS MUCH
OF CENTRAL OHIO STAYS UNDERNEATH A STRATUS DECK FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST CWA HAD ME CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE BY 5-7 DEGREES TODAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST GENERALLY THE SAME WRT MAX TEMPS AS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN BEFORE IT CLOUDS BACK UP.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE BECOMING MORE SPARING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL
OHIO. WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS AND
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TODAY. ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
COMING IN OVERNIGHT...DID NOT WANT A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY BUT
GIVEN THE NATURE OF TONIGHTS EVENT THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP TODAY
WEATHER-FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD
GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK











000
FXUS61 KILN 241151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MORNING. BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS WORK DOWN INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE THESE MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK WHERE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO KCVG AND KLUK HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THE ADDITIONAL MVFR
CIGS AT THOSE LOCATIONS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL WORK THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KCMH AND KLCK. LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH FOR NOW. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SUNDAY. ADDED IN RAIN MENTION AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MORNING. BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS WORK DOWN INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE THESE MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK WHERE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO KCVG AND KLUK HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THE ADDITIONAL MVFR
CIGS AT THOSE LOCATIONS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL WORK THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KCMH AND KLCK. LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH FOR NOW. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SUNDAY. ADDED IN RAIN MENTION AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 240948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MORNING. BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS JUST NW OF THE
TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH
VFR CIGS AT KCVG AND KLUK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO KCVG UNTIL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAFS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 240948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MORNING. BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS JUST NW OF THE
TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH
VFR CIGS AT KCVG AND KLUK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO KCVG UNTIL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAFS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 240617
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
117 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTIES. SNOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE OR SO DROP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT
DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU
THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT
NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK.

NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU
THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH
OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO
NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO
SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS
TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S.
HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON
MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS JUST NW OF THE
TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH
VFR CIGS AT KCVG AND KLUK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO KCVG UNTIL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAFS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK







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