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000
FXUS61 KILN 011739
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD OUR FA AND WE DESTABILIZE A
BIT MORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS THREAT
WITH A VCTS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND START TO LOSE THE
DIURNAL HEATING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES MODELS...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWER/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THOUGH...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
VFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VCSH AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
WILL NOT HIT THE BR/FG RESTRICTIONS QUITE AS HARD TONIGHT...BUT
THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MVFR TO IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KILN 011739
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD OUR FA AND WE DESTABILIZE A
BIT MORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS THREAT
WITH A VCTS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND START TO LOSE THE
DIURNAL HEATING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES MODELS...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
SHOWER/POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THOUGH...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
VFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A VCSH AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
WILL NOT HIT THE BR/FG RESTRICTIONS QUITE AS HARD TONIGHT...BUT
THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR MVFR TO IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 011327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG SHOULD LIFT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE TAFS
UNDER THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW
ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 011327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WORK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE LOW. FLOW ALOFT IS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG SHOULD LIFT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE TAFS
UNDER THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW
ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 011039
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND
INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A
VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG SHOULD LIFT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE TAFS
UNDER THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW
ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 011039
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND
INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A
VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED FOG SHOULD LIFT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE TAFS
UNDER THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
BROKEN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW
ENUF TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD GO SCATTERED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 010843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND
INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A
VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 010843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND
INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A
VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 010550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 010550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 010550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 010550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 010139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH IMPACTS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEYOND ABOUT
01Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS ALSO APPEARING PROBABLE.

ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BE MVFR...BUT
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS...THE OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 010139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH IMPACTS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEYOND ABOUT
01Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS ALSO APPEARING PROBABLE.

ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BE MVFR...BUT
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS...THE OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 312324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
724 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH IMPACTS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEYOND ABOUT
01Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS ALSO APPEARING PROBABLE.

ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BE MVFR...BUT
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS...THE OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 312324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
724 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH IMPACTS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEYOND ABOUT
01Z. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS ALSO APPEARING PROBABLE.

ONCE THE FOG LIFTS...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BE MVFR...BUT
SHOULD BE VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS...THE OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 312008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 312008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 311759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 311759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 311759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 311759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 311508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT
TODAY AND RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...
TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS/RAY





000
FXUS61 KILN 311508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN
THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH FURTHER MIXING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS TO BE THE CASE. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT 20 POP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED OTHER HOURLY
GRIDS AS APPROPRIATE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT
TODAY AND RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...
TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES/RAY
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS/RAY




000
FXUS61 KILN 311054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT TODAY AND
RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER
VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 311054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT TODAY AND
RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER
VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 311054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT TODAY AND
RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER
VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 311054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY.
REGION SHOULD BE WORKED OVER TODAY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH IN TAFS FROM 18-0Z TODAY THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE. NOT SEEING ANY PARTICULAR LAYER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A CIG TO FORM IN
TODAY...GENERALLY KEPT CIGS SCT OR AT THE WORST - VFR BKN.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST <6KT TODAY AND
RELAX TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY WILL SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER
VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 310824
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 310824
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE OVERALL TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS FOR A H5 RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS DIRTY PATTERN WILL ALLOW ENERGY TO SLIP ACROSS THE AREA TO
INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
AREA. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WILL CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS
THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DIRTY PATTERN UNDER THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST 20 POPS FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS...MID TO UPPER 80S BY DAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING
EAST INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
ACT TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD
CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 310621
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 310621
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 310621
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 310621
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORMS HAVE ENDED THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SKIES HAVE ALSO SHOWN
A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. H5 LOW IS RETROGRADING WEST
TOWARDS INDIANAPOLIS TODAY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY FROM ERN KY. MODELS WERE
SHOWING A GOOD BIT LESS QPF IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WHICH SEEMS A FAIR REPRESENTATION GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS
WORKED OVER AND A DEFINITIVE MOISTURE MAXIMA ON ANY LEVEL IS NOT
BEING SHOWN TODAY. ONE DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT 4KFT MOISTURE IS A
BIT DEEPER OVER KCMH/LCK LATER TODAY.

VCSH IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME TODAY WAS ALREADY IN FCST AND THIS IS
STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH I WOULD NOT HAVE INTRODUCED IT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
TODAY.

WIND FIELDS ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND RELAX
TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG...TRENDING TO A LOWER VSBY REDUCTION TOWARDS MORNING...BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 310159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MVFR (TO POSSIBLY
IFR) VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR MORNING.

STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY APPEAR A LITTLE LESS THAN THEY WERE
TODAY...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 310159
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD SINCE ABOUT 630PM...WITH
CONVECTION SHUNTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE SLOW MOTIONS HAVE
MANAGED TO KEEP SOME OF THESE CELLS PRODUCING PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS) BUT THE THREAT
FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH AROUND 09Z...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO MIN
TEMPS WERE DROPPED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MVFR (TO POSSIBLY
IFR) VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR MORNING.

STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY APPEAR A LITTLE LESS THAN THEY WERE
TODAY...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 302332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MVFR (TO POSSIBLY
IFR) VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR MORNING.

STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY APPEAR A LITTLE LESS THAN THEY WERE
TODAY...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 302332
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD TREND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MVFR (TO POSSIBLY
IFR) VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR MORNING.

STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY APPEAR A LITTLE LESS THAN THEY WERE
TODAY...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VCSH IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 301925
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301925
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 301925
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 301925
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301806
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 301806
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301806
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301806
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 301509
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AGAIN DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA COMBINES WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF IT. LIFR FOG AT KLUK WILL LIFT THIS MORNING
AND OTHER TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
DAYBREAK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER
TODAY AND FOCUS THEM ON ONE OR MORE OF A FEW A NARROW LINES
RUNNING SW-NE...MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A THUNDERSTORM WHEN AND IF THE DEVELOP OVER
OR UPSTREAM OF A TAF SITE. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 0Z AND HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD
ALLOW A DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 301043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING WEAKEN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE LATER IN THE DAY AS H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/W.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AGAIN DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA COMBINES WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF IT. LIFR FOG AT KLUK WILL LIFT THIS MORNING
AND OTHER TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
DAYBREAK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER
TODAY AND FOCUS THEM ON ONE OR MORE OF A FEW A NARROW LINES
RUNNING SW-NE...MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A THUNDERSTORM WHEN AND IF THE DEVELOP OVER
OR UPSTREAM OF A TAF SITE. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 0Z AND HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD
ALLOW A DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 301043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING WEAKEN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE LATER IN THE DAY AS H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/W.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AGAIN DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA COMBINES WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF IT. LIFR FOG AT KLUK WILL LIFT THIS MORNING
AND OTHER TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
DAYBREAK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER
TODAY AND FOCUS THEM ON ONE OR MORE OF A FEW A NARROW LINES
RUNNING SW-NE...MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A THUNDERSTORM WHEN AND IF THE DEVELOP OVER
OR UPSTREAM OF A TAF SITE. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 0Z AND HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD
ALLOW A DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 300845
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING WEAKEN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE LATER IN THE DAY AS H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/W.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 300845
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING WEAKEN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE LATER IN THE DAY AS H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/W.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 300622
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 300622
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS




000
FXUS61 KILN 300622
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
222 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS





000
FXUS61 KILN 300131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 300131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 292309
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 292309
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 292005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN THE LOW
AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. GIVEN
THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS EMPLOYED
IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 292005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN THE LOW
AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. GIVEN
THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ONLY VCTS WAS EMPLOYED
IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN




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