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000
FXUS61 KILN 012009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA
AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO
DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB
CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
INTO MINNESOTA.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR
1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA
FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" -
1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL
LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 012009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA
AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO
DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB
CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
INTO MINNESOTA.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR
1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA
FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" -
1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL
LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KILN 012003
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA
AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO
DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB
CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
INTO MINNESOTA.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR
1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA
FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" -
1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL
LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KILN 012003
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
OVERNIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY... AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF CHICAGO IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS ALONG WITH THE NAM (ON OMEGA
AND QPF FIELDS). PWATS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LOW THOUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FORECASTING VALUES ONLY AROUND 1.00". SOUNDINGS ALSO
DON`T SHOW MUCH. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING EAST AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT 250 MB
CURRENT CONVERGENT FLOW WILL END AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
INTO MINNESOTA.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SLOWLY RISE NEAR
1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
FORECASTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LIFT (VIA OMEGA
FIELDS) AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT
FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE
SUNDAY AND APPROACH 17 DEGREES C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE GETS WRAPPED UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND TRENDED POPS HIGHER MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW FROM A SPLITTING JET MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME FROM THE FRONT BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK.
OMEGA VALUES ALSO LOOK WEAK NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWATS ~ 1.4" -
1.5"). WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE LLJ IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS. THE FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN SHIFTED THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL
LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE H5 TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 011734
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KILN 011734
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO




000
FXUS61 KILN 011734
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS...WITH BKN
CIRRUS INVADING CVG AND LUK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 011401
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 011401
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 011051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 011051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 011051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THEY SHIFT FROM WNW TO SW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 010839
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 010839
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS
VLY.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM-
WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON
THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO
BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF
MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40
POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING
WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO
THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 010530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 010530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 010042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT. WINDS TO REMAIN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...SO CONTINUED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR A KLUK IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





000
FXUS61 KILN 010042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT. WINDS TO REMAIN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...SO CONTINUED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR A KLUK IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR




000
FXUS61 KILN 010042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT. WINDS TO REMAIN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...SO CONTINUED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR A KLUK IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





000
FXUS61 KILN 010042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT. WINDS TO REMAIN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...SO CONTINUED WITH A PERIOD OF IFR A KLUK IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR




000
FXUS61 KILN 312016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT TO PUSH INTO NW OHIO EARLY AND THEN
DROP SE ACRS ILN/S FA AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY
THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LESS CU
OVER SW OHIO IN BETWEEN SFC TROF TO THE EAST AND FRONT PUSHING
ACRS NRN INDIANA. LOW END MODERATE INSTBY HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
STORMS TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HAVE LOW POPS...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO
THE LOWER/MID 60S SW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/KURZ/AR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 312016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT TO PUSH INTO NW OHIO EARLY AND THEN
DROP SE ACRS ILN/S FA AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY
THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LESS CU
OVER SW OHIO IN BETWEEN SFC TROF TO THE EAST AND FRONT PUSHING
ACRS NRN INDIANA. LOW END MODERATE INSTBY HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
STORMS TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
HAVE LOW POPS...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NE TO
THE LOWER/MID 60S SW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/KURZ/AR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ





000
FXUS61 KILN 311802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 311802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ





000
FXUS61 KILN 311802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 311802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD IS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO PICKING UP A BIT AND WILL GUST TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED A FEW STORMS THERE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED ACROSS
OUR AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PREDICTABILITY.

SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
WITH A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR BR AT KLUK BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ





000
FXUS61 KILN 311519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 311519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 311519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 311519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 311016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 311016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 311016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 311016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 310814
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 310814
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 310527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 310527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 310527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 310527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT




000
FXUS61 KILN 310033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SKC FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT MVFR
BR AT MORE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLUK/LILN. VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH WINDS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK MAY
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK IN AFTER 00Z. WITH SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE...A FEW MORE VFR LEVEL CU DURING FRIDAY THAN
WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR




000
FXUS61 KILN 310033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SKC FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT MVFR
BR AT MORE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLUK/LILN. VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH WINDS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK MAY
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK IN AFTER 00Z. WITH SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE...A FEW MORE VFR LEVEL CU DURING FRIDAY THAN
WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





000
FXUS61 KILN 302006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU
POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ





000
FXUS61 KILN 301803
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU
POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 301803
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU
POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ





000
FXUS61 KILN 301803
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU
POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR
BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...KURZ




000
FXUS61 KILN 301508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME
LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO
FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO LEAVE OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 301508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1108 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME
LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO
FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO LEAVE OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 301037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE
THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME
LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO
FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SURISE
TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
LEAVE OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 301037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE
THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME
LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO
FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SURISE
TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
LEAVE OUT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 300808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE
THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 300808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S IS FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WILL REPLACE
THE MUGGY LOWER 70S CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS
QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF
FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME
PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 300602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 300602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 300602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





000
FXUS61 KILN 300602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MEANWHILE FOG IS TRYING TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRYING AND THE FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE AT LUK/ILN WHERE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. SOME FEW OR
SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES




000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN
THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN
THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR




000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN
THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR




000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.

WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY.

ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN
THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





000
FXUS61 KILN 300027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
827 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA AND EVEN CLOSE TO 100 IN A FEW
SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI
VALLEYS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING FURTHER EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABLIZATION WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME STRONGER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO DUE TO THE HIGH
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. LOCAL FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD RISK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOME ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO PRIOR TO
THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY
USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN
THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE.
OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR





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