Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KILN 272014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHRA/TSRA FINALLY POPPING IN MOSTLY THE SOUTEHRN FCST
AREA...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF COLUMBUS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH TRU LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THOUGH ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
AFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE...RANGING FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO CLOSE
TO 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND
ASSOC S/WV WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE RIDGE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SO WHILE THE RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE RECENT CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY AS THEN INCREASING INSTABILITY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD AREA. BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MAINLY THE WEST...AND THEN SOME
EVIDENCE ON THE NAM/GFS YIELDS LL CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT LIFTING NE
FROM KY INTO SOUTHERN OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE NOT TOO
FAR OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION...BUT THEY WERE PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER
WITH SOME OF THE S/WV ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT SOLUTION OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE DAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY.
LOOKS LIKE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE MID MS
VLY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND
PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS
TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS.

CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME
OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS.

AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO
REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 272014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHRA/TSRA FINALLY POPPING IN MOSTLY THE SOUTEHRN FCST
AREA...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF COLUMBUS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH TRU LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THOUGH ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
AFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE...RANGING FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO CLOSE
TO 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND
ASSOC S/WV WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE RIDGE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SO WHILE THE RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE RECENT CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY AS THEN INCREASING INSTABILITY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD AREA. BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MAINLY THE WEST...AND THEN SOME
EVIDENCE ON THE NAM/GFS YIELDS LL CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT LIFTING NE
FROM KY INTO SOUTHERN OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE NOT TOO
FAR OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION...BUT THEY WERE PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER
WITH SOME OF THE S/WV ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT SOLUTION OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE DAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY.
LOOKS LIKE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE MID MS
VLY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND
PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS
TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS.

CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME
OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS.

AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO
REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT ACROSS NRN OHIO/NRN INDIANA ATTM IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTION THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE HAS BEEN FALLING
ABOUT AS IT CHANGES FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED.

SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FNT PUSHES INTO THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE HIT.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDED THE PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS.

CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME
OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS.

AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO
REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT ACROSS NRN OHIO/NRN INDIANA ATTM IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTION THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE HAS BEEN FALLING
ABOUT AS IT CHANGES FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED.

SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FNT PUSHES INTO THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE HIT.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDED THE PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS.

CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME
OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS.

AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO
REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271428
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT ACROSS NRN OHIO/NRN INDIANA ATTM IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTION THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE HAS BEEN FALLING
ABOUT AS IT CHANGES FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED.

SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FNT PUSHES INTO THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE HIT.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDED THE PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CATEGORY.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
EARLY BUT THIS IS NOT BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE TO THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE
PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT
EACH TAF SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND THEN
LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE
LIGHT NE FLOW. HAVE A MENTION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK AND KILN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR









000
FXUS61 KILN 271428
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT ACROSS NRN OHIO/NRN INDIANA ATTM IS FCST TO SAG SWD INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTION THAT POPPED UP AROUND SUNRISE HAS BEEN FALLING
ABOUT AS IT CHANGES FROM ELEVATED TO SURFACE BASED.

SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FNT PUSHES INTO THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING IN FAVOR OF THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE HIT.

WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDED THE PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CATEGORY.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
EARLY BUT THIS IS NOT BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE TO THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE
PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT
EACH TAF SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND THEN
LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE
LIGHT NE FLOW. HAVE A MENTION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK AND KILN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 271040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN FWA AND OKK.
THE SLOW MOVING CLUSTER COULD REACH WEST CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING SO INCREASED POPS THERE THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES COULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COME INTO PHASE...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND TRIGGERING
CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS
HAS KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR CATEGORY.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
EARLY BUT THIS IS NOT BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL
NATURE TO THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE
PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED AT
EACH TAF SITE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND THEN
LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE
LIGHT NE FLOW. HAVE A MENTION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK AND KILN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 270820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO TO
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN FWA AND OKK.
THE SLOW MOVING CLUSTER COULD REACH WEST CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING SO INCREASED POPS THERE THROUGH MID MORNING.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES COULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COME INTO PHASE...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND TRIGGERING
CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH
COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC
BLEND.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL
BE OBSERVED.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
TOWARD SUNRISE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR
LESS TODAY AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 270640
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT STABILIZED. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE PRIMARILY DRY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN
THE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL
BE OBSERVED.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
TOWARD SUNRISE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR
LESS TODAY AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 270640
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT STABILIZED. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE PRIMARILY DRY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN
THE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL
BE OBSERVED.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN
TOWARD SUNRISE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR
LESS TODAY AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 270117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT STABILIZED. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE PRIMARILY DRY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN
THE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAF SITES
DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALMOST ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALREADY WORKED OVER
EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD HINDER
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AT KILN/KCVG AND IFR VSBYS
AT KLUK.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS FOR THOSE SITES
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...KURZ








000
FXUS61 KILN 270117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
917 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT STABILIZED. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL
SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE PRIMARILY DRY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN
THE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO SOME LOWER
CHANCE POPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAF SITES
DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALMOST ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALREADY WORKED OVER
EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD HINDER
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AT KILN/KCVG AND IFR VSBYS
AT KLUK.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS FOR THOSE SITES
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...KURZ









000
FXUS61 KILN 270004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW OF
THE MCS ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS ENCOUNTERED THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE MCS...THEY ADDED
TO IT AND WERE BRIEFLY SEVERE OVER MERCER COUNTY. THE COMBINED
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE AHEAD OF THE DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN A COLD POOL...HAMPERING ANY FUTURE STORMS TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN A 35-40 MPH WIND THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE SETTING SUN AND COLD POOL
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WITH THIS BEING SAID...THE LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE HARD TO
DISTINGUISH FROM THE OUTFLOW BUT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAF SITES
DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALMOST ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALREADY WORKED OVER
EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD HINDER
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AT KILN/KCVG AND IFR VSBYS
AT KLUK.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS FOR THOSE SITES
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...KURZ







000
FXUS61 KILN 270004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW OF
THE MCS ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS ENCOUNTERED THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE MCS...THEY ADDED
TO IT AND WERE BRIEFLY SEVERE OVER MERCER COUNTY. THE COMBINED
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE AHEAD OF THE DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN A COLD POOL...HAMPERING ANY FUTURE STORMS TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN A 35-40 MPH WIND THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE SETTING SUN AND COLD POOL
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WITH THIS BEING SAID...THE LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE HARD TO
DISTINGUISH FROM THE OUTFLOW BUT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAF SITES
DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALMOST ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALREADY WORKED OVER
EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD HINDER
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AT KILN/KCVG AND IFR VSBYS
AT KLUK.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS FOR THOSE SITES
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...KURZ








000
FXUS61 KILN 262158
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
558 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW OF
THE MCS ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS ENCOUNTERED THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE MCS...THEY ADDED
TO IT AND WERE BRIEFLY SEVERE OVER MERCER COUNTY. THE COMBINED
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE AHEAD OF THE DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN A COLD POOL...HAMPERING ANY FUTURE STORMS TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN A 35-40 MPH WIND THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE SETTING SUN AND COLD POOL
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WITH THIS BEING SAID...THE LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE HARD TO
DISTINGUISH FROM THE OUTFLOW BUT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGS
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 262158
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
558 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW OF
THE MCS ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
STORMS ENCOUNTERED THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM THE MCS...THEY ADDED
TO IT AND WERE BRIEFLY SEVERE OVER MERCER COUNTY. THE COMBINED
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO RACE AHEAD OF THE DISCRETE CELLS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN A COLD POOL...HAMPERING ANY FUTURE STORMS TO
PRODUCE MORE THAN A 35-40 MPH WIND THROUGH THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE SETTING SUN AND COLD POOL
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

WITH THIS BEING SAID...THE LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL BE HARD TO
DISTINGUISH FROM THE OUTFLOW BUT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGS
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES










000
FXUS61 KILN 262004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE A LINE OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BUTTS INTO THE ESTABLISHED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. THE FOCUS OF THESE STORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA...BUT THE LINGERING COLD FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGS
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 262004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE A LINE OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BUTTS INTO THE ESTABLISHED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. THE FOCUS OF THESE STORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA...BUT THE LINGERING COLD FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGS
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA
IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED
POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71.

PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGA
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA
IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED
POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71.

PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGA
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 261424
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA
IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED
POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71.

PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WAS THINNING OUT OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED SO AT THIS TIME
HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 261424
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FA
IN NORTHEAST INDIANA. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE BRINGING CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SE INTO THE FA. UPPED
POPS A LITTLE IN THE NW AND BROUGHT SLIGHT CHC POPS A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FA...DOWN TO AROUND I-71.

PREVIOUS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOK ON-TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WAS THINNING OUT OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED SO AT THIS TIME
HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 261048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTER AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL WORK TOGETHER TO PRODUCE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS SCENARIO WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
AND WEST OF DAYTON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 COMBINING WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE MID 90S IN WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE SUB ADVISORY HEAT INDICES
IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WAS THINNING OUT OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE
NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED SO AT THIS TIME
HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.



OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
OVER THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTER AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL WORK TOGETHER TO PRODUCE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS SCENARIO WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
AND WEST OF DAYTON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 COMBINING WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE MID 90S IN WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE SUB ADVISORY HEAT INDICES
IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO THIN TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW
AND THINNING CLOUDS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK/KILN WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FCST.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MID/UPR
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W
ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO
THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260627
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
227 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...OFFERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA
HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA
MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING
THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO THIN TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW
AND THINNING CLOUDS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK/KILN WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FCST.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MID/UPR
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W
ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO
THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260627
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
227 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...OFFERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA
HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA
MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING
THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO THIN TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW
AND THINNING CLOUDS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK/KILN WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FCST.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MID/UPR
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W
ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO
THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA
HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA
MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING
THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN
INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER
FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 260033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA
HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA
MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING
THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN
INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER
FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 252343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE FA HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE BEFORE HAVING THE STORMS DISSIPATE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN
INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER
FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 252343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE FA HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE BEFORE HAVING THE STORMS DISSIPATE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CU SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHRA NEAR KCVG. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENING AND PUSHING SOUTH IN
INDIANA SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD CHANCE OF RIVER
FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 252201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE FA HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE BEFORE HAVING THE STORMS DISSIPATE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 252201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF
STORMS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS FEATURE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE FA HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAVE IT STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER. INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA THIS EVENING FOR AWHILE BEFORE HAVING THE STORMS DISSIPATE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252108
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252108
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE  MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 251754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS
AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN:

STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC
BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 251754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS
AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN:

STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC
BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME
MVFR FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RIVER FOG AT KLUK WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THAT FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 251303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS
AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN:

STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC
BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR THAT DEVELOPED IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. SKY COVER WILL
CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO SKC 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR VFR AND SOUTH WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 251303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB WAS GENERATING CLOUDS
AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AS WELL AS ADD A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES FOR THIS AFTN:

STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL SFC
BASED/MIXED LAYER INSTBY TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY SHOWER
OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR THAT DEVELOPED IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. SKY COVER WILL
CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO SKC 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR VFR AND SOUTH WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 251100
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL INSTBY
TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR THAT DEVELOPED IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. SKY COVER WILL
CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO SKC 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR VFR AND SOUTH WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 251100
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL INSTBY
TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR THAT DEVELOPED IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. SKY COVER WILL
CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY POINT TO SKC 00Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOOK FOR VFR AND SOUTH WINDS AT
CVG AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 250903
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL INSTBY
TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR MAY DEVELOP IN A HUMID AIRMASS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 250903
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND ACROSS
THEN ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THRU THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL INSTBY
TO DEVELOP INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ISOLD AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE WEST.

VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR SW.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S ACRS FAR SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME
HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED  OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NRN PORTION BEING FLATTENED AS WESTERLIES AND
ASSOCIATED S/W TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTBY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP ALL
BUT WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO DRY WHERE WILL
ALLOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NE TO
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE SW. HEAT INDICES OVER THE FAR WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT TUESDAY
AFTN.

MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE THE THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
WED. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LAYS OUT MORE E-W TO DROP SOUTH
THRU ILN/S FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST ACRS NW HALF OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE WEDNESDAY ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH A RIBBON OF MODERATE
INSTBY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. HIGHS WED EXPECT TO
RANGE FROM MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR MAY DEVELOP IN A HUMID AIRMASS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 250528
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND GENERALLY JUST EXPECT
SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR MAY DEVELOP IN A HUMID AIRMASS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 250528
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND GENERALLY JUST EXPECT
SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST...PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. BR MAY DEVELOP IN A HUMID AIRMASS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY...WITH CUMULUS FORMING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 250013
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND GENERALLY JUST EXPECT
SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE
DOMINANT RIDGE. CU HAS DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING SOME
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KLUK. SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND FEW CLOUDS FOR DAYTIME MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT











000
FXUS61 KILN 250013
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND GENERALLY JUST EXPECT
SOME HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE
DOMINANT RIDGE. CU HAS DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING SOME
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KLUK. SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND FEW CLOUDS FOR DAYTIME MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT










000
FXUS61 KILN 242356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED. THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL BE THAT BIG OF AN
ISSUE. STILL HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER LIMITED THE MENTION TO PATCHY FOG DUE TO
SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE
DOMINANT RIDGE. CU HAS DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING SOME
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KLUK. SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND FEW CLOUDS FOR DAYTIME MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 242356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED. THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL BE THAT BIG OF AN
ISSUE. STILL HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER LIMITED THE MENTION TO PATCHY FOG DUE TO
SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 90S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE
DOMINANT RIDGE. CU HAS DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING SOME
MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KLUK. SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND FEW CLOUDS FOR DAYTIME MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities