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000
FXUS61 KILN 211142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT
A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART
THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS
OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS
SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE LATER KCVG TAF HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. BRIEF IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KILN IF THERE ARE ANY ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 211142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT
A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART
THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS
OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS
SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE LATER KCVG TAF HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. BRIEF IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KILN IF THERE ARE ANY ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210943
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT
A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART
THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS
OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS
SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210943
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT
A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART
THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE
INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS
OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS
SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVG H5 S/W HAS KICKED OFF SOME FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
THAT THESE ARE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES VISIBLE IN MUCH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TRI-STATE.

UPPED THE LOW TEMPS FRO TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVG H5 S/W HAS KICKED OFF SOME FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
THAT THESE ARE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES VISIBLE IN MUCH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TRI-STATE.

UPPED THE LOW TEMPS FRO TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVG H5 S/W HAS KICKED OFF SOME FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
THAT THESE ARE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES VISIBLE IN MUCH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TRI-STATE.

UPPED THE LOW TEMPS FRO TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FAST MOVG H5 S/W HAS KICKED OFF SOME FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
THAT THESE ARE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES VISIBLE IN MUCH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TRI-STATE.

UPPED THE LOW TEMPS FRO TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND
WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT
KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE
MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
937 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAST MOVG H5 S/W HAS KICKED OFF SOME FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
THAT THESE ARE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND SHOULD BE GONE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP...WITH CLEAR SKIES VISIBLE IN MUCH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THE
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TRI-STATE.

UPPED THE LOW TEMPS FRO TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION. A FEW HOLES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN IT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THEY HAVE FILLED BACK IN.

AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIP EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM CENTRAL KY WILL WORK INTO THE
TRI-STATE. EXPECT THE CVG/LUK TAFS TO BE THE FIRST TO GO VFR...IN
THE 08-09Z TIME RANGE. AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES THE DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD...ALLOWING KDAY TO EXPERIENCE THE VFR
CONDITIONS. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS WILL BE THE
LAST PLACE THE DRIER AIR WORK IN...SO EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO LINGER PAST 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE THICK AND EXTREMELY PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL
HAVE ONE MORE FORECAST PERIOD TO HANG AROUND. THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION AT AROUND 875MB. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS A GREATER PRESENCE
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE SHORTWAVE
ALREADY MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS PROVIDING
AN ENLIGHTENING PICTURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD. WHAT HAS BECOME EVIDENT TODAY IS THAT EROSION OF THESE
CLOUDS (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA) HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. WITH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB RIDGE...SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN...AND THIS WILL START TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
LARGELY PAY OFF. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...MIN TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
OBSERVED NUMBERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO...FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
COMING IN WITHOUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...SO IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT MOST OF THE OBSERVED RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION. A FEW HOLES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN IT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THEY HAVE FILLED BACK IN.

AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIP EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM CENTRAL KY WILL WORK INTO THE
TRI-STATE. EXPECT THE CVG/LUK TAFS TO BE THE FIRST TO GO VFR...IN
THE 08-09Z TIME RANGE. AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES THE DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD...ALLOWING KDAY TO EXPERIENCE THE VFR
CONDITIONS. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS WILL BE THE
LAST PLACE THE DRIER AIR WORK IN...SO EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO LINGER PAST 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE THICK AND EXTREMELY PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL
HAVE ONE MORE FORECAST PERIOD TO HANG AROUND. THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION AT AROUND 875MB. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS A GREATER PRESENCE
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE SHORTWAVE
ALREADY MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS PROVIDING
AN ENLIGHTENING PICTURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD. WHAT HAS BECOME EVIDENT TODAY IS THAT EROSION OF THESE
CLOUDS (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA) HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. WITH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB RIDGE...SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN...AND THIS WILL START TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
LARGELY PAY OFF. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...MIN TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
OBSERVED NUMBERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO...FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
COMING IN WITHOUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...SO IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT MOST OF THE OBSERVED RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION. A FEW HOLES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN IT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THEY HAVE FILLED BACK IN.

AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIP EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM CENTRAL KY WILL WORK INTO THE
TRI-STATE. EXPECT THE CVG/LUK TAFS TO BE THE FIRST TO GO VFR...IN
THE 08-09Z TIME RANGE. AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES THE DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD...ALLOWING KDAY TO EXPERIENCE THE VFR
CONDITIONS. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS WILL BE THE
LAST PLACE THE DRIER AIR WORK IN...SO EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS
TO LINGER PAST 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 202107
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE THICK AND EXTREMELY PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL
HAVE ONE MORE FORECAST PERIOD TO HANG AROUND. THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION AT AROUND 875MB. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS A GREATER PRESENCE
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE SHORTWAVE
ALREADY MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS PROVIDING
AN ENLIGHTENING PICTURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD. WHAT HAS BECOME EVIDENT TODAY IS THAT EROSION OF THESE
CLOUDS (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA) HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. WITH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB RIDGE...SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN...AND THIS WILL START TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
LARGELY PAY OFF. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...MIN TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
OBSERVED NUMBERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO...FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
COMING IN WITHOUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...SO IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT MOST OF THE OBSERVED RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAFS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT
POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE TREND THIS MONTH...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A CLEARING OF
MVFR CIGS EVEN WITH THE HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER CWA AND AXIS
EXTENDING SW OVER OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE HIGH POSITIONING...BUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT AS OF LATE.

WILL CHANGE THE OVC SKY CONDITION TO A BKN DECK LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT KCVG AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 202107
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
LOW MOVES AWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE THICK AND EXTREMELY PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL
HAVE ONE MORE FORECAST PERIOD TO HANG AROUND. THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A SHARP INVERSION AT AROUND 875MB. THE ONE
DIFFERENCE WITH THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS A GREATER PRESENCE
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A PRODUCT OF THE SHORTWAVE
ALREADY MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE CLEARING...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IS PROVIDING
AN ENLIGHTENING PICTURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD. WHAT HAS BECOME EVIDENT TODAY IS THAT EROSION OF THESE
CLOUDS (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA) HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. WITH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY NOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF AN 850MB RIDGE...SOME SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN...AND THIS WILL START TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
LARGELY PAY OFF. WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...MIN TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
OBSERVED NUMBERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO...FLURRIES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE
COMING IN WITHOUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...SO IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT MOST OF THE OBSERVED RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE
REGION...AND THE AXIS OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL SET UP A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHING MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE IMPACTS
FROM THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
SURFACE FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM
ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE 5-8 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (WHERE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE MORE QUICKLY).

AS MONDAY BEGINS...STRENGTHENING SSW 850MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ON THE NOSE OF THE
MOISTURE PUSH...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWING PROBABILITY PLOTS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z...AND WILL NOT
BE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY
STILL FAR OFF TO THE WEST. COMING OUT OF ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT ANY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ONLY A 20-PERCENT CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAKES THE SWITCH TO THE SOUTH (SSW AT 850MB AND SSE AT THE
SURFACE). A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOW EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS. WITH A SLOWING IN THE MODEL TRENDS FOR THE
PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...POPS WERE REDUCED FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
APPEARING LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  THE ECMWF IS FASTER...DEEPER...BUT MORE QUICK TO
TAKE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER...NOT AS
DEEP...AND ROTATES MORE OF A SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF/WPC BLEND IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL NORMALS IN CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS
FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AM EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF THE MENTION ATTM. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY
THURSDAY MORNING/CHRISTMAS.  CONSIDERING THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THEN COOL OFF TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAFS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT
POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE TREND THIS MONTH...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A CLEARING OF
MVFR CIGS EVEN WITH THE HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER CWA AND AXIS
EXTENDING SW OVER OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE HIGH POSITIONING...BUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT AS OF LATE.

WILL CHANGE THE OVC SKY CONDITION TO A BKN DECK LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT KCVG AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1126 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALL
BUT ENDED/EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
WILL SEE A LITTLE BREAK HERE OR THERE BUT BY NO MEANS CHANGE THE
OVERCAST NATURE OF THE SKY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THE TREND OF ENTRENCHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH...EVEN WITH A DECENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER THE IN/OH BORDER NEAR RICHMOND
TONIGHT.

LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY BY 1-3 DEG GIVEN THE SNOW OVER THE
SOUTH AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAFS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT
POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE TREND THIS MONTH...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A CLEARING OF
MVFR CIGS EVEN WITH THE HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER CWA AND AXIS
EXTENDING SW OVER OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE HIGH POSITIONING...BUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT AS OF LATE.

WILL CHANGE THE OVC SKY CONDITION TO A BKN DECK LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT KCVG AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1126 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALL
BUT ENDED/EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
WILL SEE A LITTLE BREAK HERE OR THERE BUT BY NO MEANS CHANGE THE
OVERCAST NATURE OF THE SKY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THE TREND OF ENTRENCHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH...EVEN WITH A DECENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER THE IN/OH BORDER NEAR RICHMOND
TONIGHT.

LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY BY 1-3 DEG GIVEN THE SNOW OVER THE
SOUTH AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAFS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT
POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

GIVEN THE TREND THIS MONTH...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A CLEARING OF
MVFR CIGS EVEN WITH THE HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER CWA AND AXIS
EXTENDING SW OVER OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE HIGH POSITIONING...BUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT AS OF LATE.

WILL CHANGE THE OVC SKY CONDITION TO A BKN DECK LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT KCVG AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 201136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TAF SITES. HAVE THIS LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY WORKING INTO KCVG AND
KLUK. KILN WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE ONLY
HAVE A VCSH MENTION THERE. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 201136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TAF SITES. HAVE THIS LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY WORKING INTO KCVG AND
KLUK. KILN WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE ONLY
HAVE A VCSH MENTION THERE. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 200941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 200941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS
LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 200525
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION...NEAR 900MB-875MB...HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING TONIGHT SHOWS MUCH OF THE
SAME...WITH THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY SHARP
INVERSION. THE ONLY EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
STANDPOINT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ILN CWA. THERE
ARE ALSO SIGNS OF SOME DISSIPATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF PUTTING A FORECAST TOGETHER...THE HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WHICH WILL PASS
COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW) ARE ALREADY MOVING IN.
THUS...EVEN WHERE SOME SLIGHT CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

THIS MAY BE A FEW TOO MANY WORDS TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 200525
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1225 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION...NEAR 900MB-875MB...HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING TONIGHT SHOWS MUCH OF THE
SAME...WITH THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY SHARP
INVERSION. THE ONLY EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
STANDPOINT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ILN CWA. THERE
ARE ALSO SIGNS OF SOME DISSIPATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF PUTTING A FORECAST TOGETHER...THE HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WHICH WILL PASS
COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW) ARE ALREADY MOVING IN.
THUS...EVEN WHERE SOME SLIGHT CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

THIS MAY BE A FEW TOO MANY WORDS TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG AND KLUK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 200243
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION...NEAR 900MB-875MB...HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING TONIGHT SHOWS MUCH OF THE
SAME...WITH THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY SHARP
INVERSION. THE ONLY EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
STANDPOINT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ILN CWA. THERE
ARE ALSO SIGNS OF SOME DISSIPATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF PUTTING A FORECAST TOGETHER...THE HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WHICH WILL PASS
COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW) ARE ALREADY MOVING IN.
THUS...EVEN WHERE SOME SLIGHT CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

THIS MAY BE A FEW TOO MANY WORDS TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND
THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 200243
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION...NEAR 900MB-875MB...HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING TONIGHT SHOWS MUCH OF THE
SAME...WITH THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY SHARP
INVERSION. THE ONLY EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
STANDPOINT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ILN CWA. THERE
ARE ALSO SIGNS OF SOME DISSIPATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF PUTTING A FORECAST TOGETHER...THE HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WHICH WILL PASS
COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW) ARE ALREADY MOVING IN.
THUS...EVEN WHERE SOME SLIGHT CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW
LEVELS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

THIS MAY BE A FEW TOO MANY WORDS TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND
THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 192303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND
THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 192303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND
THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP
ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH
CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 192114
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900 MB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESSIMISTIC TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC MVFR
CEILINGS. STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HAZE/MIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 192114
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN
SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S
FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.
IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY
LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900 MB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESSIMISTIC TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC MVFR
CEILINGS. STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HAZE/MIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 191747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA IS SHROUDED IN A COUPLE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYERS. 19.12Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900
MB...OR ABOUT 1 KFT THICK. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA...THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AS THEY REMAIN STUCK
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR...IT WOULD
APPEAR MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EROSION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900 MB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESSIMISTIC TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC MVFR
CEILINGS. STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HAZE/MIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 191747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA IS SHROUDED IN A COUPLE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYERS. 19.12Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900
MB...OR ABOUT 1 KFT THICK. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA...THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AS THEY REMAIN STUCK
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR...IT WOULD
APPEAR MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EROSION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900 MB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESSIMISTIC TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC MVFR
CEILINGS. STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HAZE/MIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 191455
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA IS SHROUDED IN A COUPLE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYERS. 19.12Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900
MB...OR ABOUT 1 KFT THICK. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA...THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AS THEY REMAIN STUCK
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR...IT WOULD
APPEAR MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EROSION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 191455
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA IS SHROUDED IN A COUPLE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYERS. 19.12Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900
MB...OR ABOUT 1 KFT THICK. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA...THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AS THEY REMAIN STUCK
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR...IT WOULD
APPEAR MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EROSION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 191147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 191147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 191141
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 191141
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR. KCVG AND
KLUK ARE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY GO VFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 190941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 190941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. AND BASED
ON RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE OVERCAST DECK WILL HOLD FIRM. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
DECK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDED HIGHS TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 190609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 190609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VSBYS AT KCMH WHERE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 182324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 182324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 182045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER.

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 181747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU







000
FXUS61 KILN 181521
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME THE DECK SHOULD
BREAK...BECOMING VFR....AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THIS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SVRL
MODELS BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE WITH A DECK OF VFR CIGS BTWN FL050 AND 070. HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH THE RAP SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. WHILE
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN TERMS OF
PCPN...FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE VARIABLE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS MENTION IN THE FCST.

W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HAYDU








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