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000
FXUS61 KILN 051959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE OHIO
VALLEY TO REMAIN IN A WARM AIR MASS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY EVIDENT ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...STRETCHING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN
THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE ENTIRE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH JUST BARELY.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING...WITH A REGIME OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY
WARM AIR BETWEEN 5KFT-10KFT. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE HAS POOLED
CLOSE TO THE FRONT (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S)...LEADING TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE) THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH NO SIGNS OF FOCUSED
FORCING (AND THE FRONT STILL BARELY MOVING)...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND MAINLY TO THE
NORTH (IN THE IWX/CLE FORECAST AREAS).

MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY. GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS ARE
INDICATING THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS
OVER THE REGION...AND THUS MAX TEMPS ARE BEING FORECAST ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE
SPOTTY AT BEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TO BE HONEST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE NOT ZERO FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDING EVERYWHERE (AND WEAK CAPPING AT MOST).
FORCING AGAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...KEEPING AWAY
ANY EXPECTATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS
SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT (PRIMARY OVER THE NWS CLE FORECAST AREA)
AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY...AND A 20-POP WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST
BURNS OFF BY 13Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 051959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE OHIO
VALLEY TO REMAIN IN A WARM AIR MASS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY EVIDENT ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...STRETCHING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN
THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE ENTIRE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH JUST BARELY.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING...WITH A REGIME OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY
WARM AIR BETWEEN 5KFT-10KFT. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE HAS POOLED
CLOSE TO THE FRONT (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S)...LEADING TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE) THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH NO SIGNS OF FOCUSED
FORCING (AND THE FRONT STILL BARELY MOVING)...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND MAINLY TO THE
NORTH (IN THE IWX/CLE FORECAST AREAS).

MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY. GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS ARE
INDICATING THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS
OVER THE REGION...AND THUS MAX TEMPS ARE BEING FORECAST ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE
SPOTTY AT BEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TO BE HONEST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE NOT ZERO FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDING EVERYWHERE (AND WEAK CAPPING AT MOST).
FORCING AGAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...KEEPING AWAY
ANY EXPECTATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS
SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT (PRIMARY OVER THE NWS CLE FORECAST AREA)
AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY...AND A 20-POP WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST
BURNS OFF BY 13Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 051748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE A
LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH
OUT AND PULL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWFA WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN SHIFT THE THREAT FOR
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE HELD ON TO A
LOW CHC POP ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW 84 OR
85 DEGREE VALUES IN THE NORMALLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST
BURNS OFF BY 13Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 051748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE A
LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH
OUT AND PULL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWFA WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN SHIFT THE THREAT FOR
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE HELD ON TO A
LOW CHC POP ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW 84 OR
85 DEGREE VALUES IN THE NORMALLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST
BURNS OFF BY 13Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 051343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE A
LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH
OUT AND PULL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWFA WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN SHIFT THE THREAT FOR
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE HELD ON TO A
LOW CHC POP ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW 84 OR
85 DEGREE VALUES IN THE NORMALLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN
WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING
IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK
THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 051343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
943 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE A
LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY START TO WASH
OUT AND PULL A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HIGH RES OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWFA WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN SHIFT THE THREAT FOR
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. HAVE HELD ON TO A
LOW CHC POP ACRS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE REMOVED THE THREAT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. REGION SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW 84 OR
85 DEGREE VALUES IN THE NORMALLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN
WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING
IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK
THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 051023
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WHILE THE LINE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE BEST AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN OHIO BUT SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CMH SHOW CAPE VALUES ~600 WITH PWATS UP
AROUND 1.24". GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE.
HIGH RES NCAR ENSEMBLE SUITE ALSO SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS CINCINNATI STILL LOOK LOW FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN
WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING
IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK
THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 051023
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WHILE THE LINE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE BEST AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN OHIO BUT SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CMH SHOW CAPE VALUES ~600 WITH PWATS UP
AROUND 1.24". GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE.
HIGH RES NCAR ENSEMBLE SUITE ALSO SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS CINCINNATI STILL LOOK LOW FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN
WEST/NORTH OF KDAY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS REDEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR...WITH ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING
IT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL OHIO. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THINK
THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS TO ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 050800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL
SLOWLY START TO WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WHILE THE LINE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE BEST AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN NORTHERN OHIO BUT SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CMH SHOW CAPE VALUES ~600 WITH PWATS UP
AROUND 1.24". GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE.
HIGH RES NCAR ENSEMBLE SUITE ALSO SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS CINCINNATI STILL LOOK LOW FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE AREA. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THE AREA WILL
BE RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PWATS DON`T COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY WITH ALSO A HINT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. ON
THURSDAY THE AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. THE LOW WILL THEN
RETROGRADE UNDERNEATH THE WEAK RIDGE FORMING A TEMPORARY REX
BLOCK WHICH WILL HELP TO BLOCK THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
QUICKLY WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW. THIS MEANS A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 FOR THE AREA OPENING THE WAY FOR POCKETS OF PVA TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO
FORECASTED TO RISE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND APPROACH 1.70" SUNDAY
EVENING (1 - 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER DUE TO THE LIFT AND MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EURO BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
PICKING UP THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW THEN PUSHES EAST
ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
NEVER MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DISLODGE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND SHEARS OUT. THIS SOLUTION
KEEPS THE AREA WARM AND HUMID. THE LATEST CANADIAN APPEARS TO
RESEMBLE THE ECMWF. HAVE KEPT GRIDS TRENDING TOWARDS THE CMC AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT
PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 050529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT
PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 050529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT
PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 050529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PCPN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CURRENT
PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND THUS ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
PRIMARILY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTHERN RIVER VALLEYS SO
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL










000
FXUS61 KILN 050237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KDAY SHORTLY AND CONTINUE
EAST TOWARDS KCMH/KLCK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
WEAKENING BEFORE GETTING THAT FAR. IT APPEARS THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. STILL A CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT KILN...BUT CINCINNATI TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 050237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SOME REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND INITIAL
ECHOES. TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KDAY SHORTLY AND CONTINUE
EAST TOWARDS KCMH/KLCK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
WEAKENING BEFORE GETTING THAT FAR. IT APPEARS THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. STILL A CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT KILN...BUT CINCINNATI TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 042345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EVENING UPDATE GENERALLY BLENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVED
VALUES AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE LOWER TEMPS ALONG AND N OF I-70
WHERE SHOWERS HAD JUST PASSED THROUGH. UPSTREAM CONVECTION NORTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS IS WEAKENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL HOLD
ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW THIS
EVENING. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE H5 VORT THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKER THAN THE STORM...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
NOTED OUTFLOW PUSHING S FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL INHIBIT A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST AND/OR UNSTABLE AIR.

KEPT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNCHANGED WITH A HEIGHTENED AREA OF
LIKELY POPS INCREASING ALONG I-70 FROM RICHMOND TO CMH AND THEN
CONCENTRATING MORE IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY BY LATE EVENING
AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING NNE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 042345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EVENING UPDATE GENERALLY BLENDED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO OBSERVED
VALUES AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE LOWER TEMPS ALONG AND N OF I-70
WHERE SHOWERS HAD JUST PASSED THROUGH. UPSTREAM CONVECTION NORTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS IS WEAKENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL HOLD
ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW THIS
EVENING. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE H5 VORT THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKER THAN THE STORM...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE
NOTED OUTFLOW PUSHING S FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL INHIBIT A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST AND/OR UNSTABLE AIR.

KEPT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS UNCHANGED WITH A HEIGHTENED AREA OF
LIKELY POPS INCREASING ALONG I-70 FROM RICHMOND TO CMH AND THEN
CONCENTRATING MORE IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY BY LATE EVENING
AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING NNE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...









000
FXUS61 KILN 042340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS
THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS
VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY
NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY
POP.

MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL
THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAKENING...EXPECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK TO BE IMPACTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
OCCUR AND IF THEY DO WHETHER THEY WOULD IMPACT KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
STILL ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 042340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS
THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS
VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY
NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY
POP.

MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL
THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAKENING...EXPECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK TO BE IMPACTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
OCCUR AND IF THEY DO WHETHER THEY WOULD IMPACT KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
STILL ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 042340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS
THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS
VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY
NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY
POP.

MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL
THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAKENING...EXPECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK TO BE IMPACTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO PERSISTENT SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS 12Z. COULD
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION. FURTHER
SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
OCCUR AND IF THEY DO WHETHER THEY WOULD IMPACT KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
STILL ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 042015
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS
THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS
VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY
NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY
POP.

MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL
THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 042015
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND STALL OUT IN NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS CROSSING EAST THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE WITH MANY AREAS ONLY GETTING ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
SOME EVEN LESS THAN THAT. REMOVED THUNDER FROM POPS THAT WERE LESS
THAN 25% AND ONLY PUT ISOLD THUNDER IN WHERE IT EXCEEDED THIS
VALUE. WEAK SURFACE FORCING WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE IS TOPPED BY
NEARLY ZONAL WLY FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FIELD. THIS DOES NOT TYPICALLY SUPPORT A THUNDER FORECAST BUT AS
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY MAY
POP.

MODELS DECREASE ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS
PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE SHIFTED THE FOCUS NORTHWARD BUT STILL FEEL
THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE PEELED BACK ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE SOME MORE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED AND BLENDED WELL WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESUME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. A
LARGER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL OCCUR HERE AS RAIN COOLED AIR
/OR AT LEAST CLOUDY SKIES/ WILL NOT PERMIT READINGS TO TOP OUT OF
THE MID 70S WHILE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND
HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
REACHING 80 DEGREES IN SPOTS.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN...THEY REMAIN NONZERO AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD MIX TO SPARK SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS NO LONGER IN PLAY...ANY
PRECIP WILL GO THE WAYSIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS...DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THURSDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO HOW IT IS HANDLING THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE DRIFTS
NW. THE GFS BRINGS IN ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO SOME OF ITS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE GETTING PULLED INTO THE REGION. THE
ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. CARRIED A 20 POP
IN SE INDIANA/NRN KY PER THE ECMWF TO COVER ANY ROUGE CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT TRY AND POP.

ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP DIES DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS REDEVELOPS PCPN FRIDAY. IT IS THE FARTHEST W WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS FUEL ITS CONVECTION. PREFER THE
DRIER ECMWF.

BY THE WEEKEND A CDFNT SLOW APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOCATIONS IN
THE W/NW WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ENTIRE FA TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ORIGINAL FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER THE REGION AS H5 TROF DIGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A STRONGER N-S
ORIENTED CDFNT WILL WORK TO TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY...KEEPING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PCPN ON MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 041808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 041808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 041808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 041808
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WORK INTO KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF CU SE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BETTER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG A BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE TAF SITES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 041530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1130 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 041530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1130 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND AREA OF FOCUS IS AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TO STAY GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SOME
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER
CONCERN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE RISE TO
BE SLOWER...AND EVEN FALL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FA...AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 041052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 041052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 041052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 041052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING
INTO INDIANA AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
WEAKENING THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT HEADS SOUTH.

KDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND HAVE THE CHANCE TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A STALLED
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KDAY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP COULD ARRIVE LATE
THIS MORNING.

KCMH/KLCK: THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. SHOWERS DO LOOK LIKELY THOUGH AS RAIN WILL SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

KILN/KCVG/KLUK: THESE TERMINALS ARE IN EVEN MORE IN QUESTION
WHETHER PRECIP WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. AS OF NOW... HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS AS THEY
REMAIN ON THE EDGE.



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 040748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML
CAPES IN THE 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING...WITH THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST CAPES JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WORKING INTO OUR
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SAGGING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS IS TO BRING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DOWN
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY UP ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE TODAY...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
FIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF SOME BETTER UPDRAFTS CAN GET
GOING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY BEING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE THEN LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60
DEGREES.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE
RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG
AGAIN AT KLUK. WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION IS ALSO HIGHER CURRENTLY THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
STILL CANT RULE OUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES THOUGH. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
MODELS WERE SHOWING RAINING REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ON
THE LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS APPEARS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH ONLY TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUPPORT THUNDER THOUGH. WILL
WAIT FOR NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT BEFORE INTRODUCING THUNDER AND/ OR RAIN TO THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 040532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG
AGAIN AT KLUK. WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION IS ALSO HIGHER CURRENTLY THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
STILL CANT RULE OUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES THOUGH. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
MODELS WERE SHOWING RAINING REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ON
THE LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS APPEARS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH ONLY TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUPPORT THUNDER THOUGH. WILL
WAIT FOR NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT BEFORE INTRODUCING THUNDER AND/ OR RAIN TO THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 032337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A REPEAT OF SHALLOW FOG AT KLUK FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AND SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25
KT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 032337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A REPEAT OF SHALLOW FOG AT KLUK FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AND SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25
KT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 032337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A REPEAT OF SHALLOW FOG AT KLUK FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AND SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25
KT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 032337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE REGION WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A REPEAT OF SHALLOW FOG AT KLUK FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME AND SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ONCE AGAIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25
KT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 032026
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILLING INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOW
AND MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 032026
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILLING INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOW
AND MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MAIN FORCING
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE REGION IN
NORTHEAST CANADA AND MOVING AWAY. THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FRONT
INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD POP ALONG
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER IN THE IMMEDIATE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD BE MORE DENSE AND IN
GREATER EXTENT IN NORTHERN CWA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD A BIT EACH DAY AS THEY RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
OHIO RIVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE FORECAST AS
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE OF THE MAV AND THE MET BLENDED WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST YIELDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. ON WEDNESDAY THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO RETARD CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. THE GFS HOWEVER POPS DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS
COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THERE
SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IN THE W MEANS
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 031802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 031802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 031802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 031802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BELIEVE GUSTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. DID ADD IN WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED IN SOME MVFR FOG TO KLUK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT MIGHT BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 031452
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1052 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT
20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO
BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH
THE LOWEST 200 MB.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 031452
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1052 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SW OF THE FA HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT
20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO
BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH
THE LOWEST 200 MB.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 031027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT
20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO
BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH
THE LOWEST 200 MB.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 031027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. VWP SHOWING WINDS AT
20 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
RAISED WINDS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME TAF SITES WILL ALSO
BE A TAD GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH
THE LOWEST 200 MB.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES









000
FXUS61 KILN 030754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT THEN
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT WITH MORE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE
FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES









000
FXUS61 KILN 030457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES









000
FXUS61 KILN 030457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES









000
FXUS61 KILN 030457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ONLY SOME DAYTIME
CU WITH PASSING CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030203
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 030203
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL A FEW CUMULUS AROUND BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 022325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 022325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 022325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT EACH DAY UNTIL A FRONT
DRAPES ITSELF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS
IT BUTTS INTO A WEAKLY ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND THE TWO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT TO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME FAIR WX CUMULUS IN THE REGION
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE WEAK COLD OR NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO BEYOND THEN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BUT SOME SOUTHERN PERTURBATIONS OF THE SHOWERS
NECESSITATE INCLUSION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT REALLY REACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE FOR THE FA. ZONAL H5 FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
EMBEDDED VORT MAXS WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 12Z
MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC BY THE OHIO RIVER. THE
CONVECTION COULD TRY AND WORK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT STILL KEPT NRN KY DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD PUSHING THE FRONT
NORTH WITH IT. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE N ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP. UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO STOP ANY
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY FRIDAY THE WRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. A FEW STORMS COULD WORK INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THE
SAME IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTER HIGHS
BETWEEN 75-80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY IN THE W MEANS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 70S. ERN LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO LOWER 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







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