Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KILN 301959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF ILLINOIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS OHIO. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM
MISSOURI LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW MOVES TO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE ILN FA.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO WARM FRONTAL
LOCATION...WITH 6 AM READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT
AND INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT
WILL CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70 THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CARRYING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 70S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE ATTAINED...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DELTA THETA E VALUES EXCEEDING 20 KELVIN...AND WITH A POTENT MID
LEVEL JET AIDING STORM TOP DIVERGENCE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES TO PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH AN INITIAL SFC WAVE PUSHING EAST EARLY
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL TROF LAGGING.
ALL NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HOLD ONTO PCPN LONGER...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACRS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM 60 NORTH TO 65 SOUTH.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION
TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY.

TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH.  READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO WAA/MOIST
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.

FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN RIPPLE EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
03Z AND 08Z. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND REGION BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES PREDOMINATING IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH SUNRISE.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOW LIFT MIST/LOW CEILINGS BACK
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE INT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF ILLINOIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS OHIO. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM
MISSOURI LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW MOVES TO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE ILN FA.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO WARM FRONTAL
LOCATION...WITH 6 AM READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT
AND INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT
WILL CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ROUGHLY ALONG
I-70 THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CARRYING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 70S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE ATTAINED...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DELTA THETA E VALUES EXCEEDING 20 KELVIN...AND WITH A POTENT MID
LEVEL JET AIDING STORM TOP DIVERGENCE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES TO PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH AN INITIAL SFC WAVE PUSHING EAST EARLY
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL TROF LAGGING.
ALL NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HOLD ONTO PCPN LONGER...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACRS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM 60 NORTH TO 65 SOUTH.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION
TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY.

TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH.  READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO WAA/MOIST
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.

FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN RIPPLE EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
03Z AND 08Z. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND REGION BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES PREDOMINATING IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH SUNRISE.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOW LIFT MIST/LOW CEILINGS BACK
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE INT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT COMES CLOSE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST CWFA...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH EXPECTED. SPC SWODY1 HAS OUR FAR SRN/SWRN CWFA IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH JUST A SMALL PORTION IN THE
FAR SWRN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANYTHING...WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...I.E...LOW LCLS...IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES THAT
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ARE LOW (2 PERCENT PER
SPC)...ANY ROTATING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED DUE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF HELICITY AND LOW
LCLS FOR AN ISOLATED SPIN UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUTED TODAY GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS...BUT WILL SHOW SOME
WARMING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHERE THE WARM FRONT
NEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS...INCLUDING
CAMS...DIFFER ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT VALUES BASED ON ILN SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...ANOTHER KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HOW IT AFFECTS
FFG VALUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND HOW
WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ACRS OUR SRN CWFA
HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS FA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO WAA/MOIST
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.

FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE
REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN RIPPLE EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
03Z AND 08Z. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND REGION BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES PREDOMINATING IN THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH SUNRISE.

ON SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOW LIFT MIST/LOW CEILINGS BACK
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE INT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 301523
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1123 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT COMES CLOSE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST CWFA...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH EXPECTED. SPC SWODY1 HAS OUR FAR SRN/SWRN CWFA IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH JUST A SMALL PORTION IN THE
FAR SWRN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANYTHING...WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...I.E...LOW LCLS...IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES THAT
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ARE LOW (2 PERCENT PER
SPC)...ANY ROTATING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED DUE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF HELICITY AND LOW
LCLS FOR AN ISOLATED SPIN UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUTED TODAY GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS...BUT WILL SHOW SOME
WARMING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHERE THE WARM FRONT
NEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS...INCLUDING
CAMS...DIFFER ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT VALUES BASED ON ILN SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...ANOTHER KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HOW IT AFFECTS
FFG VALUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND HOW
WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ACRS OUR SRN CWFA
HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS FA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CMH/LCK AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID MORNING WHILE
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST RETURNS MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING. SOME
IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING AND DRYING AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES EAST.
WILL BE A LULL IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTING. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR NOW BUT SCATTERED THUNDER COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING NEAR OHIO
RIVER IN BETTER INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 301042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK IN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT BAND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE
SW COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MEASURE PCPN BEFORE IT
DOES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FA AFTER
SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THIS PCPN A
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THE AREA TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY AS THE WRMFNT DOESNT REACH THE SRN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ACT TO HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. BACKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIAMI VALLEY...TO THE MID 60S IN
NORTHERN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BE DECREASING
AS THE FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CMH/LCK AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID MORNING WHILE
APRROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST RETURNS MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING. SOME
IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING AND DRYING AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES EAST.
WILL BE A LULL IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTING. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR NOW BUT SCATTERED THUNDER COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING NEAR OHIO
RIVER IN BETTER INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 300811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK IN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT BAND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE
SW COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MEASURE PCPN BEFORE IT
DOES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FA AFTER
SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THIS PCPN A
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THE AREA TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY AS THE WRMFNT DOESNT REACH THE SRN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ACT TO HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. BACKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIAMI VALLEY...TO THE MID 60S IN
NORTHERN KY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BE DECREASING
AS THE FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR WITH SOME MID CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
CVG/LUK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO MVFR
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF IFR BY EVENING. EAST WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 300539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHILE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDE NORTH.

EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY 6 AM...WITH PRECIP HOLDING
OFF. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH UP
THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR WITH SOME MID CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
CVG/LUK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO MVFR
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF IFR BY EVENING. EAST WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 300141
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY WHEN THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHILE LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY RECEDE NORTH.

EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY 6 AM...WITH PRECIP HOLDING
OFF. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH UP
THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY WHEN A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ENTERING ILLINOIS. WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDER WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO
THE IFR RANGE...AND CEILINGS MVFR. EAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AT CVG AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CIRCULATES AROUND THE LOW ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW IFR TO
PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 292356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER.
WHERE THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO FEATURE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOME OF THIS HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WARMING UP COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY WHEN A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ENTERING ILLINOIS. WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDER WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO
THE IFR RANGE...AND CEILINGS MVFR. EAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AT CVG AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CIRCULATES AROUND THE LOW ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY ALLOW IFR TO
PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 291953
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER.
WHERE THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO FEATURE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOME OF THIS HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WARMING UP COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS61 KILN 291933
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS61 KILN 291933
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS61 KILN 291825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS61 KILN 291508
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1108 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL TRY AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WEAK CAA
SHOULD ALLOW REFORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK CAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CU ACROSS THE
OH AND KY BORDER WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME LIFTING CIGS
HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS61 KILN 291331
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL TRY AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WEAK CAA
SHOULD ALLOW REFORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK CAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL
RETURN CLOUDS AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CVG/LUK AREA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 291031
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL TRY AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WEAK CAA
SHOULD ALLOW REFORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK CAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL
RETURN CLOUDS AND RAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CVG/LUK AREA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 290831
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL TRY AND BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WEAK CAA
SHOULD ALLOW REFORMATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK CAA...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREA. MAINLY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. CVG/LUK ON EDGE BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN LIFT AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR WILL RETURN FRIDAY EVENING UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST THEN EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 290526
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE FRONT HAS ENDED AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. THIS HAS LEFT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO AREA. MAINLY IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG. CVG/LUK ON EDGE BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN LIFT AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR WILL RETURN FRIDAY EVENING UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST THEN EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...PADGETT





000
FXUS61 KILN 290155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE FRONT HAS ENDED AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. THIS HAS LEFT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIMINISHING CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR A WARM FRONT IS MOVING
EAST OF TAF SITES. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FORM AND LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT ACCORDING
TO MODELS. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO FALL TO IFR IN BR. VFR MAY THEN
RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT CMH
AND LCK WHERE MVFR MAY PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 282353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PIVOT UP INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES IN
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A DECREASING
TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH FAIRLY LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
ALSO WITH SOME DRIER ALOFT...THE MAX DELTA THETA E IS FAIRLY HIGH
SO SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. FFG IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREA...WITH 1 HOUR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THEY
DO INCREASE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
WITH PWS PUSHING UP IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS...THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIMINISHING CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR A WARM FRONT IS MOVING
EAST OF TAF SITES. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FORM AND LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT ACCORDING
TO MODELS. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO FALL TO IFR IN BR. VFR MAY THEN
RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT CMH
AND LCK WHERE MVFR MAY PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 282353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PIVOT UP INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES IN
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A DECREASING
TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH FAIRLY LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
ALSO WITH SOME DRIER ALOFT...THE MAX DELTA THETA E IS FAIRLY HIGH
SO SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. FFG IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREA...WITH 1 HOUR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THEY
DO INCREASE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
WITH PWS PUSHING UP IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS...THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIMINISHING CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR A WARM FRONT IS MOVING
EAST OF TAF SITES. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FORM AND LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT ACCORDING
TO MODELS. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO FALL TO IFR IN BR. VFR MAY THEN
RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT CMH
AND LCK WHERE MVFR MAY PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 282016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PIVOT UP INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES IN
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A DECREASING
TREND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORT WAVE. WITH FAIRLY LOW WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
ALSO WITH SOME DRIER ALOFT...THE MAX DELTA THETA E IS FAIRLY HIGH
SO SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. FFG IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREA...WITH 1 HOUR VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT THEY
DO INCREASE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
WITH PWS PUSHING UP IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS...THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE
CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SRN INDIANA TO RIPPLE EAST THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION. HAVE USED VCTS TO IDENTIFY THE BEST PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE SFC WAVE...
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
TO DEVELOP ACRS ALL TAF SITES.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS61 KILN 281754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPR MS VLY TO OPEN UP AND RIDE OVER THE
SE US RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL S/W VORT LOBE TO
PIVOT EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INITIAL
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO WEAKENING AND SHUD CONTINUE
TO FALL APART. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY ACRS SRN OHIO TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ILN/S 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS YIELDING DELTA
THETA-E VALUES OF 20 DEG C.

EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK SFC WAVE LONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN IN THE UNSTBL
AIRMASS. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 7500
FEET...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO WITH THE PRIME
TIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

GOOD GRADIENT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...TO
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SRN INDIANA TO RIPPLE EAST THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION. HAVE USED VCTS TO IDENTIFY THE BEST PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE SFC WAVE...
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
TO DEVELOP ACRS ALL TAF SITES.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS61 KILN 281449
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1049 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPR MS VLY TO OPEN UP AND RIDE OVER THE
SE US RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL S/W VORT LOBE TO
PIVOT EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INITIAL
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO WEAKENING AND SHUD CONTINUE
TO FALL APART. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY ACRS SRN OHIO TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ILN/S 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS YIELDING DELTA
THETA-E VALUES OF 20 DEG C.

EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK SFC WAVE LONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN IN THE UNSTBL
AIRMASS. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 7500
FEET...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO WITH THE PRIME
TIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

GOOD GRADIENT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...TO
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IFR COULD DEVELOP THERE THIS MORNING. BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO STAYED WITH MVFR BELOW 2000 FT.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...AN EAST-WEST
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING IT TO STALL
BEFORE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY - KCMH/KLCK. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CEILING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE FURTHER NORTH MVFR WILL
PERSIST. STAYED WITH VC DESIGNATION FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT MAY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP. IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KILN 281449
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1049 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPR MS VLY TO OPEN UP AND RIDE OVER THE
SE US RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL S/W VORT LOBE TO
PIVOT EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INITIAL
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO WEAKENING AND SHUD CONTINUE
TO FALL APART. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY ACRS SRN OHIO TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ILN/S 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS YIELDING DELTA
THETA-E VALUES OF 20 DEG C.

EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK SFC WAVE LONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN IN THE UNSTBL
AIRMASS. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 7500
FEET...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO WITH THE PRIME
TIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

GOOD GRADIENT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...TO
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IFR COULD DEVELOP THERE THIS MORNING. BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO STAYED WITH MVFR BELOW 2000 FT.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...AN EAST-WEST
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING IT TO STALL
BEFORE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY - KCMH/KLCK. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CEILING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE FURTHER NORTH MVFR WILL
PERSIST. STAYED WITH VC DESIGNATION FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT MAY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP. IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KILN 281051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IFR COULD DEVELOP THERE THIS MORNING. BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO STAYED WITH MVFR BELOW 2000 FT.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...AN EAST-WEST
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING IT TO STALL
BEFORE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY - KCMH/KLCK. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CEILING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE FURTHER NORTH MVFR WILL
PERSIST. STAYED WITH VC DESIGNATION FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT MAY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP. IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KILN 280839
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. ONCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS THE CEILINGS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LAG BETWEEN THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND THE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NORTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BUT LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER ANY OF THE TERMINALS WOULD BE
IMPACTED. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH VC. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BACK TO IFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KILN 280554
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDWEST IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL
AFFECT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. THIS FORCING WILL BE OFFSET BY
WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STILL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE
IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

EXPECT WEAKENED CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA BY 6 AM AS PER LATEST HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING
THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A
WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE
GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS.

ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR
THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR
THE MOST PART EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. ONCE
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS THE CEILINGS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LAG BETWEEN THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND THE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING NORTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BUT LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER ANY OF THE TERMINALS WOULD BE
IMPACTED. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH VC. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BACK TO IFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...





000
FXUS61 KILN 280201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDWEST IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL
AFFECT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. THIS FORCING WILL BE OFFSET BY
WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STILL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE
IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

EXPECT WEAKENED CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA BY 6 AM AS PER LATEST HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING
THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A
WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE
GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS.

ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR
THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT LYING ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ADVERSELY INFLUENCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT NORTHERN SITES ILN DAY CMH AND LCK. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT CVG AND LUK...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN THERE SOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE
SOUTH. THOUGH ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION HELPS TO FURTHER MOISTEN LOW LEVELS.

A RETURN TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND 14Z WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR MAY BE ATTAINED AROUND 18Z AT
CVG AND LUK...WHILE ILN DAY CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR PERSIST TO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WITH FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS POINT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE NEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 280201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDWEST IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL
AFFECT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. THIS FORCING WILL BE OFFSET BY
WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STILL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE
IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

EXPECT WEAKENED CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA BY 6 AM AS PER LATEST HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING
THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A
WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE
GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS.

ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR
THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT LYING ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ADVERSELY INFLUENCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT NORTHERN SITES ILN DAY CMH AND LCK. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT CVG AND LUK...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN THERE SOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE
SOUTH. THOUGH ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION HELPS TO FURTHER MOISTEN LOW LEVELS.

A RETURN TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND 14Z WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR MAY BE ATTAINED AROUND 18Z AT
CVG AND LUK...WHILE ILN DAY CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR PERSIST TO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WITH FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS POINT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE NEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





000
FXUS61 KILN 280000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
800 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
QUICKLY BACK TO SOUTHERN OHIO. FOR THIS FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE IT SLOWLY BREAKING APART AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST AND
SPLITTING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE FIRST
BATCH OF RAIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE ALSO
IS SOME LEFT OVER DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB. THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN LOOKS TO COME THIS EVENING. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE
BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL
MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT
250 MB LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
THIS EVENING WITH THE ILN CWA JUST EAST OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. A HAND ANALYSIS AT 250 MB FROM 12Z REVEALED GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHICH IS FORECASTED TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO
BE ABOVE 1.50" VIA THE NAM AND GFS (NEAR THE MAX DAILY VALUE).
OMEGA VALUES ALSO SHOW STRONG LIFT MOVING OVERHEAD AROUND 3Z.
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. K
INDEX VALUES ALSO RISE TO AROUND 37 AT CVG. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH AS SOUNDINGS AT CMH
SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO PICK UP IN SPEED AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE ABOVE SPC HAS PUT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IN GENERAL HIGH RES MODELS HAS
THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 10 PM
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING
THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A
WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE
GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS.

ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR
THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT LYING ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ADVERSELY INFLUENCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT NORTHERN SITES ILN DAY CMH AND LCK. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT CVG AND LUK...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN THERE SOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE
SOUTH. THOUGH ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS
CONVECTION HELPS TO FURTHER MOISTEN LOW LEVELS.

A RETURN TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND 14Z WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR MAY BE ATTAINED AROUND 18Z AT
CVG AND LUK...WHILE ILN DAY CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR PERSIST TO
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WITH FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS POINT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE NEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities