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000
FXUS61 KILN 130601
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE BY MORNING HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 130601
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE BY MORNING HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 130601
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL LIGHTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCVG AND KLUK. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE BY MORNING HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 130252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 130252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 130252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SNOW SQUALL EVENT ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS COMING TO AN
END...WITH THE FINAL HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW LEAVING LEWIS AND SCIOTO
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW LEGITIMATE EMBEDDED SQUALLS...PRODUCED QUICK ACCUMULATIONS
AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH). IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT HAS GONE PAST...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS (AND WIDESPREAD FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (EASTERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO). SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TRACE AMOUNTS THROUGH
MORNING.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT MIN TEMP OR SKY FORECASTS...AS
THESE APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY (AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FURTHER SOUTH) WILL
CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS
OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 122353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 122353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 122353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...GUSTY WNW WINDS (UP TO 30
KNOTS) AND BRIEF POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AFTER
THAT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN A LITTLE...AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CINCINNATI WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY...BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SOLID AGAIN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 122058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 122058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 122058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES EVENING AND THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THRU THE OHIO VLY EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF ENHANCED PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE FRONTS. EVENTUALLY FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT. 8H
TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEG C SETTLES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVSY ACRS THE NORTH AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ACRS THE SOUTH HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW OVER SE CANADA TO DIG SE INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SAT
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO NOSE IN SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -24 DEGREE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCED
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING TOWARD EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH
THRU THE MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 BELOW ZERO.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO/WV BY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM
THE ZERO DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY AHEAD OF INITIAL S/W WHICH TRACKS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY SUNDAY AND THEN THRU THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS S/W...FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTN. WILL SPREAD SNOW IN FROM THE THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH DURG
THE EARLY EVENING WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS MOST FAVORABLE. EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO 25
SOUTH...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH REDUCES
PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THE ILN AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVING
THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. STILL EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO AN INCH
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN WARMS AND CHANGES PRECIP TO RAIN BY MONDAY
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER WEATHER. WILL NEED TO WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A CLIPPER
THAT CURRENTLY IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REBOUND TO AROUND 50 MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY
DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.




&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 121801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.

THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN
CENTRAL OHIO.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF
INCH OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF
THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 121801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.

THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN
CENTRAL OHIO.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF
INCH OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF
THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 121801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.

THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN
CENTRAL OHIO.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF
INCH OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF
THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 121509
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1009 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.

THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN
CENTRAL OHIO.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF
INCH OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF
THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FLURRY IS POSSIBLE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 121147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME OF THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH.
THUS POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS IT DOES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. APPEARS THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SQUALL LIKE ALONG THE
FRONT.

EXPECT A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP
BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT...
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON
SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FLURRY IS POSSIBLE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 121147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME OF THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH.
THUS POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS IT DOES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. APPEARS THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SQUALL LIKE ALONG THE
FRONT.

EXPECT A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP
BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT...
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON
SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FLURRY IS POSSIBLE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK




000
FXUS61 KILN 121147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME OF THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH.
THUS POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS IT DOES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. APPEARS THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SQUALL LIKE ALONG THE
FRONT.

EXPECT A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP
BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT...
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON
SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FLURRY IS POSSIBLE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN START TO DECREASE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 120939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME OF THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH.
THUS POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS IT DOES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. APPEARS THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SQUALL LIKE ALONG THE
FRONT.

EXPECT A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP
BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT...
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON
SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG AND KLUK. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 120547
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND THUS ANY MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST UNTIL MORNING. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. IT IS BEING REPLACED FROM THE WEST BY A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
(CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA). MIN TEMPS APPEARED MOSTLY ON
TRACK...BUT BASED ON HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT LAST NIGHT...THESE
VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

SOME ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. THE
INITIAL WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK (AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) AND
IS LACKING IN MOISTURE. THE FORECAST FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS AND VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ZERO) STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR LATER IN THE
DAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 25
KNOTS...AND WITH INDICATIONS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INCREASED.
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG AND KLUK. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK





000
FXUS61 KILN 120225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND THUS ANY MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST UNTIL MORNING. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. IT IS BEING REPLACED FROM THE WEST BY A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
(CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA). MIN TEMPS APPEARED MOSTLY ON
TRACK...BUT BASED ON HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT LAST NIGHT...THESE
VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

SOME ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. THE
INITIAL WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK (AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) AND
IS LACKING IN MOISTURE. THE FORECAST FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS AND VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ZERO) STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR LATER IN THE
DAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 25
KNOTS...AND WITH INDICATIONS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INCREASED.
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 120225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND THUS ANY MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST UNTIL MORNING. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. IT IS BEING REPLACED FROM THE WEST BY A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
(CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA). MIN TEMPS APPEARED MOSTLY ON
TRACK...BUT BASED ON HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT LAST NIGHT...THESE
VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

SOME ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. THE
INITIAL WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK (AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) AND
IS LACKING IN MOISTURE. THE FORECAST FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS AND VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ZERO) STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR LATER IN THE
DAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 25
KNOTS...AND WITH INDICATIONS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INCREASED.
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 120225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND THUS ANY MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST UNTIL MORNING. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY ERODE AND
MOVE NORTHEAST. IT IS BEING REPLACED FROM THE WEST BY A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
(CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA). MIN TEMPS APPEARED MOSTLY ON
TRACK...BUT BASED ON HOW THINGS PLAYED OUT LAST NIGHT...THESE
VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

SOME ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW. THE
INITIAL WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK (AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST) AND
IS LACKING IN MOISTURE. THE FORECAST FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS AND VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ZERO) STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR LATER IN THE
DAY...AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE DAY...FROM LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 25
KNOTS...AND WITH INDICATIONS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO INCREASED.
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 00Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 112308
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
608 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 112308
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
608 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 112308
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
608 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES AT KCMH/KLCK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THICK STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH...TURNING TO THE WEST AS THEY
BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY (20-25 KNOTS).

VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 112052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL END THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION PROVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH TO GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY AND THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAKER EMBEDDED S/W IN
THE FLOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN WAA
PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID LEVEL S/W TO DROP
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA
PATTERN EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FAVORABLE FETCH
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15
MPH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

8H TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END EARLY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL DROP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ILN AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO START MONDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY OF
LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES GIVE LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED ON WEDNESDAY BY A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGHS IN THE
30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY INCREASE TO THE 40S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z.

SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 111754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z.

SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 111754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z.

SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 111754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z.

SHALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FEW FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TONIGHT...CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CEILINGS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DROP
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT 12 K FT TO 8 K FT. WITH WEAK WAA/LIFT...CEILINGS
WILL DROP TOWARD 5 K FT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. COVERAGE SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 111501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 111501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 111103
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN RISE ABOVE ZERO BY
MID MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY (ESP TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST) AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION.
THERE ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUN TODAY WITH A WEAK
STRATO CU FIELD POSSIBLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH
GFS/EURO AND NAM ALL FORECASTING 850 TEMPS OF -18 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KILN 111103
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN RISE ABOVE ZERO BY
MID MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY (ESP TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST) AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION.
THERE ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUN TODAY WITH A WEAK
STRATO CU FIELD POSSIBLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH
GFS/EURO AND NAM ALL FORECASTING 850 TEMPS OF -18 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 111103
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN RISE ABOVE ZERO BY
MID MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY (ESP TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST) AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION.
THERE ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUN TODAY WITH A WEAK
STRATO CU FIELD POSSIBLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH
GFS/EURO AND NAM ALL FORECASTING 850 TEMPS OF -18 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 110939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN RISE ABOVE ZERO BY
MID MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY (ESP TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST) AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION.
THERE ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUN TODAY WITH A WEAK
STRATO CU FIELD POSSIBLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH
GFS/EURO AND NAM ALL FORECASTING 850 TEMPS OF -18 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG
ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION
OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO
ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 110558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER
BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN
RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY
INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD
TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG
ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION
OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO
ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 110558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER
BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN
RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY
INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD
TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG
ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION
OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO
ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL




000
FXUS61 KILN 110558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER
BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN
RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY
INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD
TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG
ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION
OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO
ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 110216
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
916 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER
BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN
RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY
INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD
TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KILN/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPEND AT
LEAST SOME TIME IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY IN
THE FORECAST...SOME FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL OHIO
AIRPORT LOCATIONS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 102302
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KILN/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPEND AT
LEAST SOME TIME IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY IN
THE FORECAST...SOME FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL OHIO
AIRPORT LOCATIONS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




000
FXUS61 KILN 102302
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KILN/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPEND AT
LEAST SOME TIME IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY IN
THE FORECAST...SOME FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL OHIO
AIRPORT LOCATIONS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 102302
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KILN/KCMH/KLCK THROUGH THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME.

VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPEND AT
LEAST SOME TIME IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY IN
THE FORECAST...SOME FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL OHIO
AIRPORT LOCATIONS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS





000
FXUS61 KILN 102147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 102147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 102147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 101804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 101804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 101804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 101743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ053-062-072-079>081.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 101743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ053-062-072-079>081.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN




000
FXUS61 KILN 101743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST AS WELL...TAPERING OFF TO A FEW FLURRIES. MVFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO A FEW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE DIURNAL
ASPECT GONE...CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 15Z TO 18Z DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG/KLCK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ053-062-072-079>081.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN





000
FXUS61 KILN 101512
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1012 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY
SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TO A FEW
FLURRIES. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN WW.Y TO EXPIRE BUT
HAVE EXTENDED SOME COUNTIES THAT WERE SLATED TO DROP OFF AT 10 AM
TO 1 PM AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE EASTERN WW.Y WILL EXPIRE AT
6 PM. JUST LIKE THE WEST...EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW FLURRIES
TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH SNOW COVER AND CLOUDS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THEY DO APPEAR TO BE BEGINNING TO LOWER BACK DOWN TOWARD MVFR AS
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL IFR AND LOWER VSBYS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOME IFR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMH/KLCK.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ053-062-072-079>081.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 101142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES. LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ON THE GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT
INDICATING THAT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SATURATION THICKNESS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT KCMH IS AROUND
200 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHILE AT KCVG SATURATION
IS ONLY AROUND 100 MB THICK AND DOESN`T ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGH RES MODELS FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND SO HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES AT ALL HERE.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY AROUND 20
DEGREES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN
-16 AND -18 DEGREES C WITH LOW LEVEL 1000/ 900 MB THICKNESSES
AROUND 810 M.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THEY DO APPEAR TO BE BEGINNING TO LOWER BACK DOWN TOWARD MVFR AS
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL IFR AND LOWER VSBYS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOME IFR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMH/KLCK.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 101142
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES. LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ON THE GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT
INDICATING THAT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SATURATION THICKNESS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT KCMH IS AROUND
200 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHILE AT KCVG SATURATION
IS ONLY AROUND 100 MB THICK AND DOESN`T ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGH RES MODELS FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND SO HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES AT ALL HERE.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY AROUND 20
DEGREES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN
-16 AND -18 DEGREES C WITH LOW LEVEL 1000/ 900 MB THICKNESSES
AROUND 810 M.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THEY DO APPEAR TO BE BEGINNING TO LOWER BACK DOWN TOWARD MVFR AS
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL IFR AND LOWER VSBYS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF SOME IFR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND ESPECIALLY AT KCMH/KLCK.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL





000
FXUS61 KILN 100915
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES. LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ON THE GFS AND NAM BEGIN TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT
INDICATING THAT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
SATURATION THICKNESS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT KCMH IS AROUND
200 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHILE AT KCVG SATURATION
IS ONLY AROUND 100 MB THICK AND DOESN`T ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGH RES MODELS FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. CURRENT POPS SHOW THIS TREND SO HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES AT ALL HERE.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY AROUND 20
DEGREES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN
-16 AND -18 DEGREES C WITH LOW LEVEL 1000/ 900 MB THICKNESSES
AROUND 810 M.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW PACK AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO MOSTLY CALM (ESP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER) WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS AND THE SNOW PACK LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS LOOKS LIKELY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CLIP OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BOUNCE AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS
RATHER WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER
NEAR -10 FROM AROUND 900 MB TO NEAR 650 MB (VIA GFS AND NAM). THIS
IS JUST WARMER THAN THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (-12
TO -18 DEGREES C). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MORE THAN COVER THIS AT
THIS TIME DO TO LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND RATHER POOR
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON SATURDAY WITH COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE.  THE COMBINATION LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF MIX IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SNOW
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. CIGS HAVE BUMPED UP INTO VFR
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH SOUTH EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES DUE TO THE SNOW SHOWERS.
CIGS WILL ALSO DROP BACK DOWN INTO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY AND
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL





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