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000
FXUS61 KILN 261733
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA HAS BEEN
SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION TO SLOW/STOP THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH PERHAPS THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS DECK
BEGINNING TO CU UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER SO EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ONLY IN THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 30S...INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME SMALL SIGNS OF
EROSION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS AREA MAY
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION MORE TO A SC/CU FIELD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. THE BEST SHOT OF THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT KCVG/KLUK
AND WILL TRY TO SCATTER THEM OUT FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 925 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THERE IS
STILL SOME STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH A GENERAL MVFR
CIG FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 261339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA HAS BEEN
SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION TO SLOW/STOP THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH PERHAPS THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS DECK
BEGINNING TO CU UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER SO EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ONLY IN THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 30S...INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ERN EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER INDIANA INTO NW OH...THAT ARE
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRIFTED EWD A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
PUSHING INTO KDAY AND KCMH. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
PRETTY STEADY STATE AS THEY STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. THE TOUGHER FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE
CLOUDS THERE ARE ABOUT 1K HIGHER THAN THE DECK TO THE WEST. SO
WILL THE CLOUDS RETREAT AWAY FROM CMH/LCK LATER THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND FORECASTED THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH THAT
IT WILL WORK OUT.


AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAFS...THE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK OVER ALL THE TAFS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261339
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA HAS BEEN
SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS EASTWARD EXPANSION TO SLOW/STOP THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH PERHAPS THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS DECK
BEGINNING TO CU UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER SO EXPECT HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ONLY IN THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 30S...INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ERN EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER INDIANA INTO NW OH...THAT ARE
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRIFTED EWD A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
PUSHING INTO KDAY AND KCMH. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
PRETTY STEADY STATE AS THEY STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. THE TOUGHER FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE
CLOUDS THERE ARE ABOUT 1K HIGHER THAN THE DECK TO THE WEST. SO
WILL THE CLOUDS RETREAT AWAY FROM CMH/LCK LATER THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND FORECASTED THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH THAT
IT WILL WORK OUT.


AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAFS...THE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK OVER ALL THE TAFS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 261138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ERN EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER INDIANA INTO NW OH...THAT ARE
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRIFTED EWD A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
PUSHING INTO KDAY AND KCMH. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
PRETTY STEADY STATE AS THEY STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. THE TOUGHER FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE
CLOUDS THERE ARE ABOUT 1K HIGHER THAN THE DECK TO THE WEST. SO
WILL THE CLOUDS RETREAT AWAY FROM CMH/LCK LATER THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND FORECASTED THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH THAT
IT WILL WORK OUT.


AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAFS...THE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK OVER ALL THE TAFS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 261138
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ERN EDGE OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER INDIANA INTO NW OH...THAT ARE
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRIFTED EWD A LITTLE OVERNIGHT
PUSHING INTO KDAY AND KCMH. MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF CLOUDS
PRETTY STEADY STATE AS THEY STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. THE TOUGHER FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE
CLOUDS THERE ARE ABOUT 1K HIGHER THAN THE DECK TO THE WEST. SO
WILL THE CLOUDS RETREAT AWAY FROM CMH/LCK LATER THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND FORECASTED THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH THAT
IT WILL WORK OUT.


AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF ALL THE TAFS...THE MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK OVER ALL THE TAFS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 260920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 260920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 260626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 260626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 260252
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
952 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
LATEST RAP AND NAM-WRF SUGGEST THAT INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A STRONG UPR LVL JET COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL SPREAD PCPN NORTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THIS PCPN SHIELD
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR FAR SE ZONES BY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES WILL BE CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT
MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DIFFICULT CLOUD
FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS IS MORE SO AT KDAY...THEN
LIKELY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY STARTING OUT
AROUND 2200 FEET BUT THEN DROPPING TO 1600 FEET. FOR THE OTHER
SITES...IT IS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY BUT THICK CLOUD HEIGHTS BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 2500 FEET WILL REDEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT CEILINGS HERE COULD DIP
BELOW 2000 FEET BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE THIS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
MIST/FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE IF LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM EASTERN SYSTEM.
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS A NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 252120
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z NAM
SUGGEST THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY OR START TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE PLENTY OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARDS AND ADD TO THE SKY
COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER
GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORMER COULD AFFECT
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS KEEP IT
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
THOUGH AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND THEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THEN MAKE THE TURN EAST NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY START TO BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
DIMINISHING.

FOR THE MOST PART USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERA TUES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARMER NUMBERS WERE FAVORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. FOR NOW...ANY PRECIPITATION
(LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW) APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY
THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED
BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND
THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE
A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 251406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
906 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250926
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 250926
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 250611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE
REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE
INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS
DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER
PAST 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 250301
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NRN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY VARY FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 242335
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 242335
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED WIND GUSTS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION WILL SEE SCT TO BKN
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 4 K TO 5 K RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AT KDAY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR
AT KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 242201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND
THE FRONT...KEEPING FAIRLY STRONG WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH
PART OF THE FA PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 242125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...KEEPING STRONG WINDS GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE SOMEWHAT MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FA
PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE
EFFECTS FROM A POTENT COASTAL LOW WILL PROBABLY STAY EAST OF THE
ILN AREA. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE SCOOTING SOUTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH UP TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY 10 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE
AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY
AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 240259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 240002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 240002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 232117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS









000
FXUS61 KILN 232117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








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