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000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT









000
FXUS61 KILN 290823
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A
COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE
HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 290214
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 282347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH.

WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...









000
FXUS61 KILN 282032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO
POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND
12Z.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW
RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL
ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A
HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT
RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE POP.

POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE
NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A
LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THE SE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY.

HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE
PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE
ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE
LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE
FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY
BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST
AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT
TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOMEWHAT MORE ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG IT. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS
WEAK...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH ALL LOCATIONS BECOMING VFR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH
STILL ALLOWED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AT KLUK. AS MID CLOUDS MOVE OUT
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD. COULD BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING BY THEN BUT THE CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. HIGH
RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD RESULT
IN A ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER SO MAY
NOT EVEN GET THUNDER IF ANY ECHOES DO DEVELOP. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS AFFECTING TERMINALS EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS
OCCURS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING AT KLUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. HIGH
RESOLUTION NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD RESULT
IN A ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER SO MAY
NOT EVEN GET THUNDER IF ANY ECHOES DO DEVELOP. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS AFFECTING TERMINALS EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE THIS
OCCURS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING AT KLUK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 281038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AND WILL
REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS LED TO SOME SPORADIC
STRATUS...MIST...AND FOG WHICH IS SHOWING TO BE VERY LOCALIZED IN
SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...KCVG SEEMS TO BE THE TERMINAL WITH THE WORSE
CONDITIONS. FOG/STRATUS IS DROPPING VALUES TO NEAR AIRPORT
MINIMUMS. BELIEVE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX TO
A SCT-BKN CUMULUS DECK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A POP UP SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 280815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...SETTLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY EVENING. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES
FOR STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS
RATHER NEGLIGIBLE AT THE MOMENT...WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.

BY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH. DRY AND
STABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO ZERO OR NEAR-ZERO INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY (ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TIERS OF COUNTIES)...INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO HELP DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW-END...WITH
AN EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED POP-UP / PULSE / SINGLE-CELL STORM
MODE. A 19Z KCVG NAM12 SOUNDING HAS WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LOWEST 20KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A REMARKABLY
SHEAR-FREE PROFILE THAT WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND STORM
ORGANIZATION VERY POOR. NONETHELESS...IF INSTABILITY REACHES THE
HIGHER END OF EXPECTATIONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 J/KG
SBCAPE)...SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.

WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL BE LESS THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DESPITE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BY A DEGREE OR
TWO...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD THUS STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
BE NECESSARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE NEBULOUS
FORCING...TIMING/LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT GOING TO BE AN
EXACT FORECAST. WITH SHEAR ON THE WEAK END OF THE SCALE AND
INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINALLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...STRONG STORMS APPEAR
FAIRLY UNLIKELY.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED...HELPING
TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY CWA-WIDE (WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS AT PEAK DIURNAL
TIMING IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY). WIND SUPPORT IS GOING TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (EVEN IF THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN).

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (SOMETHING THAT WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE BY SUNDAY). HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER...THERE
SHOULD BE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY
SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF
DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR
NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND
KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG.
MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND
THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 280151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 272357
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. HAVE SHRA MENTION AT KDAY HOWEVER HAVE NO MORE THAN
VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES KILN...KCVG...AND KLUK IN ADDITION TO SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 272040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPLITTING THE FA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM NE INDIANA INTO
NW OHIO. FARTHER S...CONVECTION IN CNTL KY IS JUST BRUSHING THE
NRN KY COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
INDIANA ALONG THE CDFNT IS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST SO FAR
AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE NRN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL TRY
AND WORK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED IT WILL BE WHEN IT
MAKES IT IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
WORKING EAST RIGHT NOW...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE. KEPT
POPS ON THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF...TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT RISING AGAIN INTO NRN
KY.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN LATE THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTION CHANCES
SHOULD END FROM THE NW. THE FRONT TRIES TO WASH OUT AS IT COMES
IN...SO ENDED THE PCPN CHANCES BY 06Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FRONT WORKING IN...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE NW. SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S FOR LOWS
THERE. DOWN THE SOUTH LOWER TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS FRONTAL SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN
HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME
BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ALONG THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE AN MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE SOUTH. QUESTION REMAINS
WHETHER STORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AS MCV HEADS
INTO THE REGION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS WAITING UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR MORE LINEAR FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SLOWLY
WEAKENING SHEAR ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING FOR BEST CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING THINKING THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
INDIANA SHORTLY AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN BEHIND IT SHOULD LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/KLCK. BUT FURTHER SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG AND/OR
STRATUS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOWER CATEGORY CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271512
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1112 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY. THUS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AN MCV WAS MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND HELP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WHAT HAS
BEEN TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LACK OF CONSENSUS IN CAMS
HAS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. RECENT HRRR
RUNS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP AND NSSL ARW RUNS THAT A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AND HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TO THIS
SCENARIO. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE DECREASING AS STORMS MOVE
IN. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE BOWING SEGMENTS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS BECOME FAIRLY
CALM...THOUGH THIS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES
AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL REMAIN
HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271512
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1112 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY. THUS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AN MCV WAS MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND HELP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WHAT HAS
BEEN TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LACK OF CONSENSUS IN CAMS
HAS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. RECENT HRRR
RUNS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP AND NSSL ARW RUNS THAT A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AND HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TO THIS
SCENARIO. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE DECREASING AS STORMS MOVE
IN. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE BOWING SEGMENTS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS BECOME FAIRLY
CALM...THOUGH THIS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES
AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL REMAIN
HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271512
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1112 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY. THUS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AN MCV WAS MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS WHILE A SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THIS MORNING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND HELP CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WHAT HAS
BEEN TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LACK OF CONSENSUS IN CAMS
HAS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. RECENT HRRR
RUNS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH NCEP AND NSSL ARW RUNS THAT A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AND HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TO THIS
SCENARIO. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE DECREASING AS STORMS MOVE
IN. NONETHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE BOWING SEGMENTS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS MIGHT BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS BECOME FAIRLY
CALM...THOUGH THIS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES
AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL REMAIN
HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS
MAY TRY TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. IN EITHER
CASE...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...ANY REMAINING STRATUS SHOULD THIN
AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FOR LATER TODAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD A MID LEVEL S/WV WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE IN ROADS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
ACHIEVE MODERATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN BASED ON
THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NWRN ZONES AND LIFT FROM THE S/WV WOULD BE
IN OUR NW. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/CAMS ARE THROWING A
CURVE BALL IN THAT THERE MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROF ENTERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NE TO SW CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV (FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW PUSHING
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY) TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.
IF THIS OCCURS...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION AND POSSIBLY POINTS DOWNSTREAM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE NW WHERE AGREEMENT IS HIGH FOR THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND 30 TO 40 POPS TOWARD THE TRI- STATE REGION. THE
LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR FAR SE ZONES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS DILIGENTLY
PLACED A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE...WITH
SCATTERED PATCHES OF MVFR STILL AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE EXACT TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS SLIGHTLY
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE 4PM-8PM TIME FRAME WILL PROBABLY BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS BLOCK OF TIME.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES.

CLEARING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS BECOME
FAIRLY CALM...THOUGH THIS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE CINCINNATI TAF
SITES AND FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL
REMAIN HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS
MAY TRY TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. IN EITHER
CASE...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...ANY REMAINING STRATUS SHOULD THIN
AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FOR LATER TODAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD A MID LEVEL S/WV WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE IN ROADS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
ACHIEVE MODERATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN BASED ON
THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NWRN ZONES AND LIFT FROM THE S/WV WOULD BE
IN OUR NW. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/CAMS ARE THROWING A
CURVE BALL IN THAT THERE MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROF ENTERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NE TO SW CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV (FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW PUSHING
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY) TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.
IF THIS OCCURS...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION AND POSSIBLY POINTS DOWNSTREAM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE NW WHERE AGREEMENT IS HIGH FOR THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND 30 TO 40 POPS TOWARD THE TRI- STATE REGION. THE
LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR FAR SE ZONES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS DILIGENTLY
PLACED A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS
MAY TRY TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. IN EITHER
CASE...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...ANY REMAINING STRATUS SHOULD THIN
AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FOR LATER TODAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD A MID LEVEL S/WV WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE IN ROADS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
ACHIEVE MODERATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN BASED ON
THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NWRN ZONES AND LIFT FROM THE S/WV WOULD BE
IN OUR NW. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/CAMS ARE THROWING A
CURVE BALL IN THAT THERE MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROF ENTERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NE TO SW CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV (FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW PUSHING
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY) TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.
IF THIS OCCURS...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION AND POSSIBLY POINTS DOWNSTREAM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE NW WHERE AGREEMENT IS HIGH FOR THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND 30 TO 40 POPS TOWARD THE TRI- STATE REGION. THE
LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR FAR SE ZONES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS DILIGENTLY
PLACED A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT...BECOMING POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
FRIDAY....ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS
MAY TRY TO MOVE A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. IN EITHER
CASE...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...ANY REMAINING STRATUS SHOULD THIN
AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FOR LATER TODAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD A MID LEVEL S/WV WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE IN ROADS INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
ACHIEVE MODERATE MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW END MODERATE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN BASED ON
THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NWRN ZONES AND LIFT FROM THE S/WV WOULD BE
IN OUR NW. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/CAMS ARE THROWING A
CURVE BALL IN THAT THERE MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROF ENTERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NE TO SW CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV (FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW PUSHING
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY) TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.
IF THIS OCCURS...THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION AND POSSIBLY POINTS DOWNSTREAM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS IN THE NW WHERE AGREEMENT IS HIGH FOR THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND 30 TO 40 POPS TOWARD THE TRI- STATE REGION. THE
LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR FAR SE ZONES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS DILIGENTLY
PLACED A GOOD PART OF OUR CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IT WILL BE WARM AND MODESTLY HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN EMPLOYED.

AS MID LEVEL S/WV EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. ONGOING
CONVECTION EARLY ON WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WANING
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY...INSTABILITY
DECREASES...AND THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THIS AREA WHILE POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REMAIN REMAIN
ON THE MUGGY SIDE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE
MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE ILL DEFINED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO INCH ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS
DRY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PEAK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.
MOST MODELS ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION ATTM.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE ENTIRE REGION. FORECAST AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN AN MID LVL RIDGE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
A MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
STATE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 270537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 270537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 270537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 270537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THICKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS CLOUDS...AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP TOO FAR...WITH WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE...BUT CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

THE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS). THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO A VCTS HAS BEEN USED FOR THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

CLEARING CONDITIONS (WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 262348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOIST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
EMBEDDED S/W PIVOTING THRU REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTBY LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
FOG WITH IFR AT KLUK AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE FOG/STATUS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
MENTION OF VCTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 262348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOIST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
EMBEDDED S/W PIVOTING THRU REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTBY LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
FOG WITH IFR AT KLUK AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE FOG/STATUS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
MENTION OF VCTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 262348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOIST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
EMBEDDED S/W PIVOTING THRU REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTBY LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
FOG WITH IFR AT KLUK AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE FOG/STATUS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
MENTION OF VCTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 262348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOIST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
EMBEDDED S/W PIVOTING THRU REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTBY LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
FOG WITH IFR AT KLUK AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE FOG/STATUS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
MENTION OF VCTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 262331
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
731 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 262331
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
731 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 262047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE
NOT VERY LOW. DUE TO THIS NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 262047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE
NOT VERY LOW. DUE TO THIS NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 262047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE
NOT VERY LOW. DUE TO THIS NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SEVERE THREAT WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 261805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HRRR AND RAP RUNS
BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE IN THIS REGARD TODAY...THERE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A
COUPLE OF BANDS/CLUSTERS AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. MAXIMUM IN
DCAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST OUT AHEAD OF ACTIVITY.
STILL MONITORING FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH A FEW SEVERE CELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER THIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WITH LESS COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS
FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 261805
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HRRR AND RAP RUNS
BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE IN THIS REGARD TODAY...THERE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A
COUPLE OF BANDS/CLUSTERS AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. MAXIMUM IN
DCAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST OUT AHEAD OF ACTIVITY.
STILL MONITORING FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH A FEW SEVERE CELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AFTER THIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND WITH LESS COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS
FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN
THE TAFS.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF
AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE
MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 261445
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDOW
OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS SEEN ON THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. STILL SOME QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE
TIMING ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS
BROADLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE SEEMINGLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALTHOUGH
THIS MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION MAY DIFFER DEPENDING ON HOW EARLIER
STORMS EVOLVE.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SEEM ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE TWO FACTORS DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
IN SYNC. NONETHELESS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

MAIN UPDATE WAS ADJUSTING TIMING OF POPS AND BUMPING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS
FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING
TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION
ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE PICKED A 3 HOUR TEMPO
WINDOW WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH
LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(DUE TO POTENTIAL STRATUS) MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 261445
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1045 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WINDOW
OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS SEEN ON THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. STILL SOME QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE
TIMING ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND THEN TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS
BROADLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE SEEMINGLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALTHOUGH
THIS MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION MAY DIFFER DEPENDING ON HOW EARLIER
STORMS EVOLVE.

FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SEEM ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE TWO FACTORS DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
IN SYNC. NONETHELESS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

MAIN UPDATE WAS ADJUSTING TIMING OF POPS AND BUMPING UP WINDS
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING AND THUS
FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING
TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION
ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE PICKED A 3 HOUR TEMPO
WINDOW WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH
LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(DUE TO POTENTIAL STRATUS) MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 261037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN PARKED IN PLACE TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY FIRMLY IN A
REGIME OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THE SLIGHTLY-NORTHWARD
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE FLOW AT A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A
REGIME OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
CONDITIONS FOR LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING JET STREAK (ENTRANCE
REGION) AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. COMBINED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER INDIANA / CENTRAL KENTUCKY / SW OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CROSSING THROUGH THE ILN CWA THROUGH
EARLY TO MID EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE STORM TIMING IS NAILED DOWN WITH
HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY...CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE
ADDED IN.

AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID 60S...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL...MODEL
AGREEMENT ON EXACT INSTABILITY VALUES IS HARD TO COME BY. ONE
THING THAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANY
TIME SOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT BUOYANCY DESPITE THE
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.
BLENDING SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1400
J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED (ADMITTEDLY A LITTLE WIDER OF A FORECAST
RANGE THAN IS IDEAL).

THE POSITION OF THE ILN CWA BETWEEN THE AREAS OF HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEAN THAT DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL...WITH 0-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW (IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN) COULD CAUSE SOME
CONCERN FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...0-1KM SHEAR
MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT (IN TERMS OF EITHER DIRECTION OR SPEED) TO
PRESENT AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
TAKEN AT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER (0-3KM)...THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SHIFT OF AROUND 30-40 DEGREES AND A
CHANGE OF 20-30 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. COMBINING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WHILE LARGE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION MAY BE A LITTLE BIT LACKING...INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND
CLUSTERS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POTENT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO MEET OR EXCEED THE FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF NEGATIVELY BUOYANT
DOWNDRAFTS. BASED ON THE SOMEWHAT-NARROW CAPE PROFILE...HIGH
FREEZING (14KFT) AND -20C (25KFT) LEVELS...AND A LACK OF EXPECTED
DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS...THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO BE A
LOWER-END RISK. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. AREAS OF LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS OR
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK...BUT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS POINT SIGNIFICANTLY TO A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
EVENT ON THE MESOSCALE. NCAR ENSEMBLE PLOTS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF
UPDRAFT HELICITY OR LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

COMBINING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE GREATEST SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR
LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4PM AND 9PM (THOUGH WEAKENING CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT). NONE OF THE OVERALL
PARAMETERS LOOK PARTICULARLY MORE FAVORABLE IN ONE SECTION OF THE
CWA OVER ANOTHER...AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PROJECTIONS FROM
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERSHOT IN TERMS OF
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THUS...THE THREAT WILL BE HANDLED
UNIFORMLY IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON A GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE AND IN A REGIME OF
DIURNALLY WEAKENING INSTABILITY. STILL...THE PATTERN OF GENERAL
MOIST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS (OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT
PROGRESSES AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING
AND THUS FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING
TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION
ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE PICKED A 3 HOUR TEMPO
WINDOW WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH
LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(DUE TO POTENTIAL STRATUS) MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 261037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE INTO
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN PARKED IN PLACE TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. ALL OF THESE FACTORS PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY FIRMLY IN A
REGIME OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT THE SLIGHTLY-NORTHWARD
POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE FLOW AT A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A
REGIME OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
CONDITIONS FOR LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING JET STREAK (ENTRANCE
REGION) AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. COMBINED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER INDIANA / CENTRAL KENTUCKY / SW OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CROSSING THROUGH THE ILN CWA THROUGH
EARLY TO MID EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND ONCE STORM TIMING IS NAILED DOWN WITH
HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY...CATEGORICAL POPS MAY BE
ADDED IN.

AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID 60S...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL...MODEL
AGREEMENT ON EXACT INSTABILITY VALUES IS HARD TO COME BY. ONE
THING THAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANY
TIME SOON...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT BUOYANCY DESPITE THE
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.
BLENDING SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...MLCAPE VALUES OF 800-1400
J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED (ADMITTEDLY A LITTLE WIDER OF A FORECAST
RANGE THAN IS IDEAL).

THE POSITION OF THE ILN CWA BETWEEN THE AREAS OF HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEAN THAT DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL...WITH 0-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW (IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN) COULD CAUSE SOME
CONCERN FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...0-1KM SHEAR
MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT (IN TERMS OF EITHER DIRECTION OR SPEED) TO
PRESENT AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
TAKEN AT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER (0-3KM)...THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SHIFT OF AROUND 30-40 DEGREES AND A
CHANGE OF 20-30 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. COMBINING THIS ALL
TOGETHER...THE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WHILE LARGE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION MAY BE A LITTLE BIT LACKING...INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND
CLUSTERS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POTENT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO MEET OR EXCEED THE FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF NEGATIVELY BUOYANT
DOWNDRAFTS. BASED ON THE SOMEWHAT-NARROW CAPE PROFILE...HIGH
FREEZING (14KFT) AND -20C (25KFT) LEVELS...AND A LACK OF EXPECTED
DISCRETE/ROTATING STORMS...THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO BE A
LOWER-END RISK. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. AREAS OF LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS OR
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE THE RISK...BUT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS POINT SIGNIFICANTLY TO A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
EVENT ON THE MESOSCALE. NCAR ENSEMBLE PLOTS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION OF
UPDRAFT HELICITY OR LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

COMBINING EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE GREATEST SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR
LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4PM AND 9PM (THOUGH WEAKENING CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT). NONE OF THE OVERALL
PARAMETERS LOOK PARTICULARLY MORE FAVORABLE IN ONE SECTION OF THE
CWA OVER ANOTHER...AND SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PROJECTIONS FROM
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERSHOT IN TERMS OF
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THUS...THE THREAT WILL BE HANDLED
UNIFORMLY IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON A GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE AND IN A REGIME OF
DIURNALLY WEAKENING INSTABILITY. STILL...THE PATTERN OF GENERAL
MOIST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS (OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY)...THIS TROUGH WILL BE WASHING OUT AS IT
PROGRESSES AHEAD. STILL...IT WILL LEAVE THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IN
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT...THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE LACKING
AND THUS FORCING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED. WHILE SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST...INSTABILITY SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING
2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA (AND UP TO 1500
J/KG ELSEWHERE). THUS...AMONG THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST...THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN A REGIME OF BUILDING
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A WEAK/NEBULOUS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. BY THURSDAY...THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONLY APPEARING TO BE A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BEGIN DRY AS WELL...THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING BACK
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...LEAVING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TO NOTE...THE GFS
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A VERY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE
SETTLING IN ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 60S. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...BUT CONVECTION AND CLOUDS (OR A LACK THEREOF)
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IN EITHER DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY
(TUESDAY) AND WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH WARM
ADVECTION KICKING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING
TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND EVOLUTION
ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE PICKED A 3 HOUR TEMPO
WINDOW WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT EACH
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH
LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
(DUE TO POTENTIAL STRATUS) MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z. HAVE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN







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