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000
FXUS61 KILN 250613
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
213 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Clouds and
moisture will begin to move into the area tomorrow morning, and
chances for showers and storms will increase going through the
rest of the week, as occasional shortwave troughs move through the
mean southwesterly flow. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm, and are expected to remain above normal through the next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A broad low pressure in the high plains and an area of high
pressure across the Carolinas will continue to provide a weak
surface gradient across the Ohio Valley. This will result in light
southerly winds through the overnight period.

A weak mid level disturbance will approach the area by daybreak
Wednesday, allowing for clouds to begin to filter in. Expect that
temperatures will drop most rapidly during the first half of the
night, then plateau somewhat as clouds begin to move in. Temperatures will
bottom out in the mid 50s across the east where mostly clear
skies are expected for the majority of the overnight period. Lows
near 60 are expected across the Tri-State area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The general pattern for the next few days can be characterized by
broad ridging over the southeastern states, with general WSW flow
at the mid-levels from the desert southwest into the great lakes
states. At the surface, the pressure gradient will gradually
become tighter, but not markedly so -- surface winds will likely
remain in the 10-15 knot range (at most) on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Overall, with weak flow through the depth of the
atmosphere over the Ohio Valley, there remain no clear signals for
sustained or organized forcing. This makes the convective forecast
very reliant on weak mid-level shortwave troughs, which will
occasionally pass across the ridge, moving through the region from
WSW to ENE. PoPs have been kept in the 20-40 percent range through
the entire period, with the understanding that near-term and
first-period forecast updates will eventually need to raise these
chances on a short-term basis.

The first shortwave -- with a fair amount of timing agreement -- is
expected to move into the region on Wednesday morning. Instability
will only be beginning to increase, as this shortwave will also be
accompanied by some 925mb-850mb theta-e advection, paving the way
for an increase in boundary layer moisture through the next
several days. Initial activity is unlikely to contain thunder on
Wednesday morning, but building instability (MLCAPE ranging from
1500 J/kg in central Indiana to 500 J/kg in central Ohio) will
eventually support convective development. With the weak forcing
and slight capping, only marginal storm coverage is expected, with
little to no organization.

Instability will become more pronounced on Thursday, as surface
dewpoints increase into the mid 60s, and temperatures continue to
increase only below 700mb (leading to steeper lapse rates in the
mid-levels). However, NAM/GFS soundings indicate a likely cap at
around 875mb, which will make storm development difficult without
the help of some forcing. As has been mentioned, there is next to
zero certainty in timing of any shortwaves at this point in the
forecast, so any storm development is expected to remain isolated.
Wind flow is also expected to be at a near-minimum on Thursday,
which all adds up to too low of confidence to include any threat
for strong storms in the HWO -- when it remains a possibility that
the day could remain mostly dry for the ILN CWA. With that said,
the high amounts of instability being forecast (SBCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg) deserve a mention in this discussion, alongside
the acknowledgment that said instability may go mostly
unrealized.

Temperatures will continue a very gradual rise from Tuesday to
Wednesday to Thursday, as low-level warm advection allows for
increasing potential for warmth -- though additional moisture will
also lead to diurnal cloud development. The warmest temperatures
will continue to be forecast in the southeastern CWA, where cloud
influence is likely to be lower. It should be noted that these
temperature forecasts (lower 80s on Wednesday / lower-to-mid 80s
on Thursday) could be too high if areas of convection are able to
occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure sits off to our southeast while a mid-level
disturbance currently over lower Ohio Valley will head our
direction later this morning. The 25.00Z ILN sounding confirms a
very dry airmass near the surface, but southerly flow will
continue to draw increasing moisture into the region through the
day today. Mid level clouds will increase from the southwest
towards daybreak. Given the current dry airmass and expected
increase in cloud cover, opted not to include any BR at KLUK, but
cannot entirely rule out a brief period of minor, shallow BR
there before daybreak.

Aforementioned weak mid-level disturbance may provide enough lift
for spotty showers to affect western terminals after 11Z this
morning, as latest hi-res models continue to show. This activity
would weaken as it progresses northeastward toward the Columbus
terminals this afternoon. With only weak forcing, do not expect
more than scattered coverage, so have only gone with VCSH. Also
cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in
response to daytime heating, but have left out of TAFs due to low
confidence in timing and location. Winds through the TAF period
will be generally out of the south, increasing a bit this
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Kurz





000
FXUS61 KILN 242346
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
746 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Clouds and
moisture will begin to move into the area tomorrow morning, and
chances for showers and storms will increase going through the
rest of the week, as occasional shortwave troughs move through the
mean southwesterly flow. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm, and are expected to remain above normal through the next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure is now centered off the southeast coast,
with broad surface low pressure over the high plains. With this
kind of distance between pressure systems, the gradient in the low
levels is very weak, and winds will continue to be light (under
10 knots) and somewhat variable in direction.

The overnight period will begin with mostly clear and relatively
calm conditions, with the area still well ahead of the shortwave
moving through the middle Mississippi Valley tonight. With clouds
eventually moving in toward Wednesday morning, temperatures
tonight may drop somewhat quickly after sunset, but should steady
out after around 4 AM. Min temps in the upper 50s are expected,
which is a 4-8 degree rise from last night, but not as warm as
suggested by the GFS/MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The general pattern for the next few days can be characterized by
broad ridging over the southeastern states, with general WSW flow
at the mid-levels from the desert southwest into the great lakes
states. At the surface, the pressure gradient will gradually
become tighter, but not markedly so -- surface winds will likely
remain in the 10-15 knot range (at most) on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Overall, with weak flow through the depth of the
atmosphere over the Ohio Valley, there remain no clear signals for
sustained or organized forcing. This makes the convective forecast
very reliant on weak mid-level shortwave troughs, which will
occasionally pass across the ridge, moving through the region from
WSW to ENE. PoPs have been kept in the 20-40 percent range through
the entire period, with the understanding that near-term and
first-period forecast updates will eventually need to raise these
chances on a short-term basis.

The first shortwave -- with a fair amount of timing agreement -- is
expected to move into the region on Wednesday morning. Instability
will only be beginning to increase, as this shortwave will also be
accompanied by some 925mb-850mb theta-e advection, paving the way
for an increase in boundary layer moisture through the next
several days. Initial activity is unlikely to contain thunder on
Wednesday morning, but building instability (MLCAPE ranging from
1500 J/kg in central Indiana to 500 J/kg in central Ohio) will
eventually support convective development. With the weak forcing
and slight capping, only marginal storm coverage is expected, with
little to no organization.

Instability will become more pronounced on Thursday, as surface
dewpoints increase into the mid 60s, and temperatures continue to
increase only below 700mb (leading to steeper lapse rates in the
mid-levels). However, NAM/GFS soundings indicate a likely cap at
around 875mb, which will make storm development difficult without
the help of some forcing. As has been mentioned, there is next to
zero certainty in timing of any shortwaves at this point in the
forecast, so any storm development is expected to remain isolated.
Wind flow is also expected to be at a near-minimum on Thursday,
which all adds up to too low of confidence to include any threat
for strong storms in the HWO -- when it remains a possibility that
the day could remain mostly dry for the ILN CWA. With that said,
the high amounts of instability being forecast (SBCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg) deserve a mention in this discussion, alongside
the acknowledgment that said instability may go mostly
unrealized.

Temperatures will continue a very gradual rise from Tuesday to
Wednesday to Thursday, as low-level warm advection allows for
increasing potential for warmth -- though additional moisture will
also lead to diurnal cloud development. The warmest temperatures
will continue to be forecast in the southeastern CWA, where cloud
influence is likely to be lower. It should be noted that these
temperature forecasts (lower 80s on Wednesday / lower-to-mid 80s
on Thursday) could be too high if areas of convection are able to
occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to move away from the region,
allowing for a steadier, albeit light, southerly flow to become
established. A very weak midlevel disturbance will approach the
area by 12z, allowing for an increase in midlevel clouds
overnight (likely inhibiting development of BR at any of the
terminals). This disturbance may provide enough lift for spotty
shower activity to move through western TAF sites of KCVG, KLUK,
KDAY, and KILN in the 12-18z time frame. CAMs continue to differ
on extent of coverage of activity, so kept KCMH and KLCK dry for
now.

During peak diurnal heating after 18z, there may be scattered SHRA/TS
development across the area, but confidence doesn`t warrant
inclusion in the TAFs as of right now. Southerly winds will remain
light (around 10kts or less) through the period for all sites.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/KC
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS61 KILN 241757
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to move east of the region
through the TAF period. Meanwhile...a mid level disturbance to our
west will move east into the area on Wednesday. Moisture will
increase ahead of this feature in the form of mid level clouds at
first tonight. Forcing is weak with this system. However...there
could be enough lift for some spotty shower activity moving into
the western terminals around 12Z. On Wednesday...the combination
of the mid level feature and diurnal heating will result in some
scattered shower/perhaps thunderstorms...with coverage expected to
be low enough at this time to just carry a vcsh.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hickman





000
FXUS61 KILN 241511
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1111 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered southeast of the area
today, providing dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. A
few fair weather cu will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise
SKC conditions expected until a band of cirrus spreads in from the
west later this afternoon.

A mid-level disturbance may trigger some shower activity over the
lower Ohio Valley after 00Z Wednesday that could drift into our
area towards daybreak Wednesday. Not overly confident in the rain
potential at this time given the limited moisture and forcing,
but do expect an increase in low/mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Kurz





000
FXUS61 KILN 241053
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
653 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge, mainly sunny skies are expected today. As the
airmass continues to modify, expect highs a bit warmer than what
we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to possibly lower
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered southeast of the area
today, providing dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. A
few fair weather cu will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise
SKC conditions expected until a band of cirrus spreads in from the
west later this afternoon.

A mid-level disturbance may trigger some shower activity over the
lower Ohio Valley after 00Z Wednesday that could drift into our
area towards daybreak Wednesday. Not overly confident in the rain
potential at this time given the limited moisture and forcing,
but do expect an increase in low/mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Kurz





000
FXUS61 KILN 240558
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and
Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the
northern Great Lakes region. As it does, a series of upper level
disturbances will initiate showers and thunderstorms at times
through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern
Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. The fair wx Cu has dissipated and light
or calm winds are expected for the overnight period. With clear
skies, temperatures will drop into the lower 50s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high slowly moves east towards West Virginia Tuesday
evening with a generally light southerly flow in the Ohio Valley
found during this time. A mean upper level ridge is in place and a
shortwave is progged to muscle through it overnight Tuesday. An
increasing threat of showers will occur later overnight and into
Wednesday, when added daytime heating would help deeper convection
and thunderstorm development. Southerly flow over the region
beyond tuesday will be the main surface feature for this portion
of the forecast.

Models are showing a larger than usual variance in how they are
depicting the rain on tuesday night onward. European has an
initial shot of showers and decrease the threat during the day
Wednesday. NAM and SREF are consistent with earlier forecasts and
a swath of rain hitting northwest cwa starting in the predawn
hours and continuing into the overnight. GFS and European models
are not nearly as copious with the rainfall or its areal extent.

Tried to limit the showers and thunderstorms to the chance
category and could see more scattered activity beyond late Tuesday
night. Attm, it looks like the better chance for the H5 shortwave
to initiate thunderstorm activity occurs overnight Wednesday.
Models still give a wide range of solutions so confidence in the
timing/placement of these showers is quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended period begins with a broad ridge over the ern U.S. The fa
finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper
Great Lakes. Weak vort maxes in the increasing low level moisture
will push dewpoints into the mid 60s on Thursday. Scattered
convection will be possible as daytime heating creates summer like
instability over the region. Bumped highs up a few degrees to the
lower to mid 80s for Thursday.

The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for most terminals through the TAF
period with surface high pressure anchored over the region. The
only exception will be KLUK through sunrise...as clear skies,
calm winds, and some low-level moisture are resulting in shallow
BR there. Expect temporary reductions in visibility (down to 1/4
mile) to continue there through sunrise.

A bit of patchy fair weather cu will be possible during the day
on Tuesday, but otherwise SKC until cirrus gradually spreads in
from the west later in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will
remain below 10 knots through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Kurz





000
FXUS61 KILN 232333
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
733 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the region tonight and
Tuesday. A warm front will develop and lift northward into the
northern Great Lakes region. As it does, a series of upper level
disturbances will initiate showers and thunderstorms at times
through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will remain over the region and settle over southeastern
Ohio by daybreak Tuesday. Any fair wx cu will quickly dissipate
after sunset with light or calm winds expected overnight. This
will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s in the
northwest where some southerly flow may persist. Low temperatures in
the southeast will generally bottom out around 50...but there
could be a larger variance in sheltered areas that act as cold-air
drainage pools.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high slowly moves east towards West Virginia Tuesday
evening with a generally light southerly flow in the Ohio Valley
found during this time. A mean upper level ridge is in place and a
shortwave is progged to muscle through it overnight Tuesday. An
increasing threat of showers will occur later overnight and into
Wednesday, when added daytime heating would help deeper convection
and thunderstorm development. Southerly flow over the region
beyond tuesday will be the main surface feature for this portion
of the forecast.

Models are showing a larger than usual variance in how they are
depicting the rain on tuesday night onward. European has an
initial shot of showers and decrease the threat during the day
Wednesday. NAM and SREF are consistent with earlier forecasts and
a swath of rain hitting northwest cwa starting in the predawn
hours and continuing into the overnight. GFS and European models
are not nearly as copious with the rainfall or its areal extent.

Tried to limit the showers and thunderstorms to the chance
category and could see more scattered activity beyond late Tuesday
night. Attm, it looks like the better chance for the H5 shortwave
to initiate thunderstorm activity occurs overnight Wednesday.
Models still give a wide range of solutions so confidence in the
timing/placement of these showers is quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extended period begins with a broad ridge over the ern U.S. The fa
finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper
Great Lakes. Weak vort maxes in the increasing low level moisture
will push dewpoints into the mid 60s on Thursday. Scattered
convection will be possible as daytime heating creates summer like
instability over the region. Bumped highs up a few degrees to the
lower to mid 80s for Thursday.

The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over the region will allow for dry
conditions through the TAF period for all terminals. Expect that
Cu will quickly dissipate after sunset, allowing for SKC for all
sites through 12z.

Main concern overnight is expected development of BR/FG at KLUK.
With calm winds, expect that BR will affect KLUK with river
valley FG leading to reduced VSBYs later tonight. Low dewpoint
depressions may also develop at KCVG, but models continue to
differ on extent of low level moisture, so kept P6SM for now.

Expect that Cu will again develop across the area Tuesday
afternoon with cirrus gradually moving in from the west toward 00z
Wednesday. Southerly winds will remain light through the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...KC/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS61 KILN 231746
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and
Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A
series of upper level disturbances will then bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will be in place today. A weak upper level
disturbance will be generally east of the area. Cannot rule out a
sprinkle across extreme eastern portions of the region however
with dry air in place went with a dry forecast. Cu are expected
to develop today primarily over eastern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area. With a decent amount of sunshine today went
on the warm side or warmer than guidance for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridging will shift slowly east across the region
through Tuesday, before beginning to break down a bit Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated surface high
pressure will will gradually weaken as it shifts off to the east.
The airmass will remain fairly dry Monday night into Tuesday, so
expect mainly clear skies to persist. As the airmass continues to
modify, highs on Tuesday will push into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Some moisture will start to work over the ridge Tuesday
night so will allow for lower chance pops to move in from the
northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is
little if any instability at this point though so will limit any
pcpn to just showers. However, as we warm into the low 80s on
Wednesday, we will destabilize through the day, leading to a
chance of thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.

H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
and Friday.

The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.

Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the TAF sites
through the TAF period. Cu will develop for the afternoon hours
however expect clear skies for later this evening and into the
overnight hours across most of the area. River valley fog is
expected to develop again at KLUK. Additional cumulus will
develop during the day on Tuesday. Winds are expected to be light
and less than 10 knots through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Novak





000
FXUS61 KILN 231320
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
920 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and
Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A
series of upper level disturbances will then bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will be in place today. A weak upper level
disturbance will be generally east of the area. Cannot rule out a
sprinkle across extreme eastern portions of the region however
with dry air in place went with a dry forecast. Cu are expected
to develop today primarily over eastern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area. With a decent amount of sunshine today went
on the warm side or warmer than guidance for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridging will shift slowly east across the region
through Tuesday, before beginning to break down a bit Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated surface high
pressure will will gradually weaken as it shifts off to the east.
The airmass will remain fairly dry Monday night into Tuesday, so
expect mainly clear skies to persist. As the airmass continues to
modify, highs on Tuesday will push into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Some moisture will start to work over the ridge Tuesday
night so will allow for lower chance pops to move in from the
northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is
little if any instability at this point though so will limit any
pcpn to just showers. However, as we warm into the low 80s on
Wednesday, we will destabilize through the day, leading to a
chance of thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.

H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
and Friday.

The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.

Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through TAF period. Expect
only a few high based cu in the afternoon. Winds light and
variable. Should see a repeat of fog at KLUK tonight if not a
little more dense possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Padgett





000
FXUS61 KILN 231037
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and
Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A
series of upper level disturbances will then bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will build slowly southeast into our area through
this afternoon. With a relatively dry airmass in place, expect
mainly sunny skies across our west today, with perhaps some sct
cu across the east. Low level thermal fields will trend slightly
warmer through this afternoon so expect highs today similar or a
tad warmer than what we saw on Sunday, with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridging will shift slowly east across the region
through Tuesday, before beginning to break down a bit Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated surface high
pressure will will gradually weaken as it shifts off to the east.
The airmass will remain fairly dry Monday night into Tuesday, so
expect mainly clear skies to persist. As the airmass continues to
modify, highs on Tuesday will push into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Some moisture will start to work over the ridge Tuesday
night so will allow for lower chance pops to move in from the
northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is
little if any instability at this point though so will limit any
pcpn to just showers. However, as we warm into the low 80s on
Wednesday, we will destabilize through the day, leading to a
chance of thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.

H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
and Friday.

The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.

Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through TAF period. Expect
only a few high based cu in the afternoon. Winds light and
variable. Should see a repeat of fog at KLUK tonight if not a
little more dense possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Padgett





000
FXUS61 KILN 230512
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
112 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
A mid-atmospheric disturbance will cross the region early on
Wednesday and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. A warm
front will form over the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and lift
northward overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some debris from weakening convection over eastern Ohio will brush
by eastern counties through the rest of the evening. Beyond that
skies will be clear overnight. Forecast lows look reasonable at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the
east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central
Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface
high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and
then around 80 for Tuesday.

nighttime lows will drop to the lower 50s monday night with
generally clear skies. Tuesday night lows will have their
temperature falls hampered by increasing clouds from the system
coming in early Wednesday, as well as southerly surface flow
pulling in warmer air. Readings should still be in the
50s...possibly around 60 in the northwest where these factors will
be found for a longer period of time.

Tuesday night will also see an increasing chance for showers,
possibly a thunderstorm. This is more likely northwest of the I-71
corridor and specifically north of metropolitan Dayton. Attm, the
chances of rain at midnight are minimal, but increase rapidly as
daybreak approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.

H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
and Friday.

The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.

Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through TAF period. Still
some question about extent of fog at KLUK by sunrise. Expect some
to form but less than yesterday morning. Rest of area dry and just
a few clouds mainly some high based cumulus this afternoon. Winds
light mainly northeasterly flow becoming variable this this
evening.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Padgett





000
FXUS61 KILN 222010
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.
A mid-atmospheric disturbance will cross the region early on
Wednesday and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. A warm
front will form over the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and lift
northward overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered to isolated showers over the lower Scioto Valley and
Hocking Hills will continue to move south and out of the area
of concern. They should continue to sprout through daytime
heating for the remainder of the daylight hours and rapidly wane
with nightfall. An upper level trough will move south through the
CWA this late day and early evening as it rotates around the
southward-diving closed low aiming towards the Outer Banks
tonight. Surface high pressure and a general rise in H5 heights
will help keep a dry and clear airmass over the region
tonight, permitting low temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to
around 50 for one more night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the
east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central
Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface
high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and
then around 80 for Tuesday.

nighttime lows will drop to the lower 50s monday night with
generally clear skies. Tuesday night lows will have their
temperature falls hampered by increasing clouds from the system
coming in early Wednesday, as well as southerly surface flow
pulling in warmer air. Readings should still be in the
50s...possibly around 60 in the northwest where these factors will
be found for a longer period of time.

Tuesday night will also see an increasing chance for showers,
possibly a thunderstorm. This is more likely northwest of the I-71
corridor and specifically north of metropolitan Dayton. Attm, the
chances of rain at midnight are minimal, but increase rapidly as
daybreak approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.

H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
and Friday.

The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.

Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will keep some VFR clouds across the
area today. These clouds are expected to move out of the region
tonight. There will be isolated wind gusts around 20 knots this
afternoon however believe they will be isolated and therefore
decided to leave out of the TAFs. Winds will decrease this evening
and for the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected except for
VSBY reductions overnight at KLUK due to river valley fog. Cu will
begin to develop late in the TAF period on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Novak





000
FXUS61 KILN 221023
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be possible across the Scioto Valley this
afternoon as a low pressure system pushes off to the east. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Monday and Tuesday,
resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clear skies are in place across the area early this morning and
this has allowed for some areas of fog to develop, primarily
across southeast portions of our fa. With light winds, this could
become a bit more widespread through daybreak so will allow for
some patchy dense fog through mid morning across the south/east.

Short wave energy will drop down the back side of the east coast
upper level trough through this afternoon. This will combine with
some weak instabilities to result in a chance of a few showers
across mainly eastern portions of our FA this afternoon. Northerly
low level flow will lead to some continued weak CAA through the
day. With a little better cloud cover likely across the
east, will range highs from the upper 60s to around 70 in the
east to the lower 70s in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the
east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central
Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface
high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our
area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and
then the upper 70s for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The H5 ridge will begin to flatten Tuesday night as a S/W swings
along the Canadian-U.S. border. This will allow some scattered
convection to possibly reach the area late Tuesday night.

For the rest of the forecast period a spring like pattern sets up.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. A WSW flow at H5 will bring weak embedded vort
maxs in the flow helping to pop convection each day which will last
into each night. Right now went with 30 PoPs as there is not a clear
signal where higher pops can be narrowed down.

Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday into
Friday, with lower 80s possible every where on Saturday. Lows
should be mild, as they remain in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak s/w rotating around low will push south into fcst area this
morning. Mid clouds will increase with cu developing in the
afternoon. Isolated shra and possible thunder will stay mainly
away from TAF sites and thus not mentioned with low probability.
Dense fog at LUK should dissipate quickly this morning and then
return later tonight. Winds increasing to around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Padgett





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