000
FXUS61 KILN 190557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BASED ON RECENT OBS...COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND HEADING SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER
LAKE ERIE TODAY. CLOUDS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SRN TAFS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD. EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
KLUK THIS MORNING AS RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. KEPT THE FOG MVFR
FOR NOW.
WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER AND SOME SCT
VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 190158
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER AND IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BASED ON RECENT OBS...COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND HEADING SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND HAVE
BEEN GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS EVENING. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO
000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SECOND...AN UPR LVL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...BUT BEST ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPR
LVL WX DISTURBANCE. ALL IN ALL...HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ATTM
AND WILL SEE IF COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WITH
MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR OUR SWRN
CWFA GIVEN THE REASON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO
000
FXUS61 KILN 182008
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SECOND...AN UPR LVL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...BUT BEST ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPR
LVL WX DISTURBANCE. ALL IN ALL...HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ATTM
AND WILL SEE IF COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WITH
MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR OUR SWRN
CWFA GIVEN THE REASON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY A LITTLE TOUGH TO DISCERN BUT BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES...IT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND TO AROUND COLUMBUS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO IN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO ALONG THIS LINE. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING INTO
A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDS AND PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS MAY HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
A DEGREE. VORT MAX DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KCVG/KLUK
TAF SITES. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE VORT AND ALSO LOSE THE INSTABILITY. WITH SOME
LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY PRIMARILY
MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 181737
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...VORT MAX OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
GIVEN CURRENT PCPN/CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
ATTM. MID AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT TODAY BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE
RIDGE BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW
SLIGHT CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIMEFRAME REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS.
SFC FRONT TO LAY OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A
LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY A LITTLE TOUGH TO DISCERN BUT BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES...IT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND TO AROUND COLUMBUS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO IN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO ALONG THIS LINE. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. HOWEVER...IT IS MOVING INTO
A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUDS AND PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS MAY HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
A DEGREE. VORT MAX DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM WILL
PIVOT DOWN INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KCVG/KLUK
TAF SITES. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE VORT AND ALSO LOSE THE INSTABILITY. WITH SOME
LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY PRIMARILY
MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL
000
FXUS61 KILN 181324
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
924 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING
STORMS IS PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...VORT MAX OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
GIVEN CURRENT PCPN/CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
ATTM. MID AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT TODAY BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE
RIDGE BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW
SLIGHT CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH SOME EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIMEFRAME REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS.
SFC FRONT TO LAY OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A
LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS ENERGY WORKS THROUGH
THE FAST FLOW ACROSS SRN OH/IN AND INTO KY. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS SUPPORT SLIPS E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THAT THIS
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES.
THE A SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHC
OF TSTM THIS AFTN INTO EVENING LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...SO PUT A TEMPO IN THE CVG/LUK TAFS AROUND 00Z FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE SECOND S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT
THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z AND SCT OUT THE CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE SOUTHERN TAFS...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT LUK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 181035
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO KEY OFF OF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MIX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS
BARELY DISCERNABLE...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND A MID LEVEL PUSH WILL LET UPDRAFTS ACCELERATE
QUICKLY LATER TODAY. WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY
STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS TO
SUPPORT A WET MICROBURST PATTERN...POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
BEFORE THE STORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT...OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO LAST LONG IN ANY ONE LOCATION BUT HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND A QUICK RAMP-UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL ARE REAL THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS ENERGY WORKS THROUGH
THE FAST FLOW ACROSS SRN OH/IN AND INTO KY. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS SUPPORT SLIPS E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THAT THIS
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES.
THE A SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS TOWARDS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHC
OF TSTM THIS AFTN INTO EVENING LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...SO PUT A TEMPO IN THE CVG/LUK TAFS AROUND 00Z FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE SECOND S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT
THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z AND SCT OUT THE CLOUDS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE SOUTHERN TAFS...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT LUK.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 180813
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
DRAPE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND USHER IN DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO KEY OFF OF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL MIX WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS
BARELY DISCERNABLE...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPROUT IN AN ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND A MID LEVEL PUSH WILL LET UPDRAFTS ACCELERATE
QUICKLY LATER TODAY. WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY
STRONG...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS TO
SUPPORT A WET MICROBURST PATTERN...POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
BEFORE THE STORMS RAIN THEMSELVES OUT...OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS
INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO LAST LONG IN ANY ONE LOCATION BUT HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND A QUICK RAMP-UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL ARE REAL THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE RAMPING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA. THREAT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THIS TIME...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INFILTRATE THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING AFTER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS...GENERALLY
AROUND 80 AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF TWO H5 S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD IS SWINGING ACROSS KY ATTM. THIS ENERGY IS HELPING TO
DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND SRN OHIO. BEST LIFT FROM THIS
S/W WILL WORK E QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION IS WANING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION
BETWEEN AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS
STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MIGHT BE AROUND 00Z AS
THE BEST LIFT FROM THE S/W MOVES. THAT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT TO ADD
A TEMPO RIGHT NOW. FOR THE 30 HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE
MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 180557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST OF TWO H5 S/W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TAFS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD IS SWINGING ACROSS KY ATTM. THIS ENERGY IS HELPING TO
DRIVE THE CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND SRN OHIO. BEST LIFT FROM THIS
S/W WILL WORK E QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION IS WANING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS BRING SECOND S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION
BETWEEN AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND A STALLED FRONT WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS
STARTING AT 18Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MIGHT BE AROUND 00Z AS
THE BEST LIFT FROM THE S/W MOVES. THAT IS A LITTLE FAR OUT TO ADD
A TEMPO RIGHT NOW. FOR THE 30 HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE
MOVING PAST BY 06Z...SO BROUGHT THE PCPN TO AN END AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
000
FXUS61 KILN 180147
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.
ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 172302
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA IS PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG EVIDENT...ISOLATED TSRA COULD FORM THIS EVENING IN OUR
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MAJOR FORCING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CELLS FROM BECOMING NUMEROUS.
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...AND THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 64.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY NOON TUESDAY AS ONE SHORT
WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.
ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 172028
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST AREA IS PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG EVIDENT...ISOLATED TSRA COULD FORM THIS EVENING IN OUR
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MAJOR FORCING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CELLS FROM BECOMING NUMEROUS.
THAT WILL CHANCE LATER TONIGHT WHEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...AND THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 64.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY NOON TUESDAY AS ONE SHORT
WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.
SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION...FORMING A
SCT-TO-BKN CUMULUS DECK AT LEVELS HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY
19Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND THEN DURING THE EVENING
AT THE CINCINNATI LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...SO A VCSH WILL BE USED IN THE
FORECAST. SOME MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER (AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY AFTER THE 18Z END
OF THE REGULAR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 171743
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING ACROSS THE CWA. IN
FACT...INSTABILITY FORECASTS NOW APPEAR TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY FEATURES
TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING THAT
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND
PROBABLY RATHER ISOLATED.
ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH HAS BEEN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...A STRATUS DECK HAS HELD IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN SKY GRIDS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...AS WELL AS A DROP IN MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. THE
STRATUS DOES SEEM TO BE ERODING...BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO FILL IN THE GAPS A BIT BY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP HERE AND THERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS KY AND SRN OH AS CAPES CLIMB OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TODAY...SO THINGS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. PUT
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT THE REST OF THE FA DRY TODAY.
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIRTY PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED H5 S/W MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT THAT IS STALLED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AND A SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS DROP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THRU THE FLOW TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ON TUE BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.
THOUGHT ABOUT GOING LIKELY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON WEDNESDAY.
WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUE...DUE TO THE INCREASED PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER. LIMITED THE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WORKING IN THE
FROM THE N...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATUS HAS GENERALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION...FORMING A
SCT-TO-BKN CUMULUS DECK AT LEVELS HOVERING VERY CLOSE TO THE
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY
19Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND THEN DURING THE EVENING
AT THE CINCINNATI LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...SO A VCSH WILL BE USED IN THE
FORECAST. SOME MVFR MIST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
DEVELOPMENT.
TOMORROW...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER (AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY AFTER THE 18Z END
OF THE REGULAR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KILN 171441
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING ACROSS THE CWA. IN
FACT...INSTABILITY FORECASTS NOW APPEAR TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY FEATURES
TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING THAT
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND
PROBABLY RATHER ISOLATED.
ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH HAS BEEN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...A STRATUS DECK HAS HELD IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN SKY GRIDS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...AS WELL AS A DROP IN MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. THE
STRATUS DOES SEEM TO BE ERODING...BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO FILL IN THE GAPS A BIT BY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP HERE AND THERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS KY AND SRN OH AS CAPES CLIMB OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TODAY...SO THINGS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. PUT
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT THE REST OF THE FA DRY TODAY.
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIRTY PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED H5 S/W MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT THAT IS STALLED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AND A SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS DROP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THRU THE FLOW TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ON TUE BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.
THOUGHT ABOUT GOING LIKELY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON WEDNESDAY.
WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUE...DUE TO THE INCREASED PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER. LIMITED THE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WORKING IN THE
FROM THE N...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS OVER THE REGION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS
IFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECK IS NOTED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A GROUPING OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPROUTING NORTH
OF I-70 ALONG A NARROW LINE AND APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THIS AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT
FOR A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE LARGER
THREAT FOR THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAF SITES...GENERALLY IN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...AND TRIGGERED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE FOUND OVER THE REGION AT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH NO TRIGGER TO INDICATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OR AREAS OF SHOWERS...TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE MORE REACTIVE THAN
PROACTIVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 171055
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP HERE AND THERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS KY AND SRN OH AS CAPES CLIMB OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TODAY...SO THINGS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. PUT
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT THE REST OF THE FA DRY TODAY.
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIRTY PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED H5 S/W MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT THAT IS STALLED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AND A SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS DROP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THRU THE FLOW TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ON TUE BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.
THOUGHT ABOUT GOING LIKELY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON WEDNESDAY.
WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUE...DUE TO THE INCREASED PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER. LIMITED THE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WORKING IN THE
FROM THE N...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS OVER THE REGION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS
IFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECK IS NOTED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A GROUPING OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPROUTING NORTH
OF I-70 ALONG A NARROW LINE AND APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THIS AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT
FOR A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE LARGER
THREAT FOR THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAF SITES...GENERALLY IN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...AND TRIGGERED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE FOUND OVER THE REGION AT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH NO TRIGGER TO INDICATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OR AREAS OF SHOWERS...TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE MORE REACTIVE THAN
PROACTIVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170834
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP HERE AND THERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS KY AND SRN OH AS CAPES CLIMB OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TODAY...SO THINGS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. PUT
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT THE REST OF THE FA DRY TODAY.
A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIRTY PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED H5 S/W MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT THAT IS STALLED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AND A SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS DROP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THRU THE FLOW TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ON TUE BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.
THOUGHT ABOUT GOING LIKELY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON WEDNESDAY.
WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUE...DUE TO THE INCREASED PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER. LIMITED THE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WORKING IN THE
FROM THE N...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WILMINGTON APPEARS TO BE
PRIMARILY GROUND BASED WHILE THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
ARE IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE. GROUND BASED STRATUS WILL SEE VSBYS DROP
QUICKLY AND CONDITIONS AT KCVG AND KILN COULD BE LIFR OR LOWER
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT
FOR A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE LARGER
THREAT FOR THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAF SITES...GENERALLY IN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...AND TRIGGERED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE FOUND OVER THE REGION AT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH NO TRIGGER TO INDICATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OR AREAS OF SHOWERS...TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE MORE REACTIVE THAN
PROACTIVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170609
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACRS THE CWFA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TURN INTO STRATUS
AND/OR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS MAY BECOME...SO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MODELS PREDICT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY...AND
MOISTURE. THIS WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH FLOW
VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH THRU OHIO ON
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OFFER TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WILMINGTON APPEARS TO BE
PRIMARILY GROUND BASED WHILE THE CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70
ARE IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE. GROUND BASED STRATUS WILL SEE VSBYS DROP
QUICKLY AND CONDITIONS AT KCVG AND KILN COULD BE LIFR OR LOWER
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT
FOR A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE LARGER
THREAT FOR THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAF SITES...GENERALLY IN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...AND TRIGGERED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE FOUND OVER THE REGION AT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH NO TRIGGER TO INDICATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OR AREAS OF SHOWERS...TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE MORE REACTIVE THAN
PROACTIVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 170129
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
929 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACRS THE CWFA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TURN INTO STRATUS
AND/OR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS MAY BECOME...SO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MODELS PREDICT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY...AND
MOISTURE. THIS WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH FLOW
VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH THRU OHIO ON
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OFFER TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH
AS WELL. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MAY ALLOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THIS THREAT IN THE TAFS.
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. AS
SUCH...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP AT OR BELOW 500 FEET (EXCEPT FOR KLUK
WHICH IS IN THE RIVER VALLEY) WITH VSBYS IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE.
IF MORE STRATUS FORMS...FOG FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT BECOME
DENSE. HOWEVER...IF LESS STRATUS FORMS...FOG AND VSBYS MAY BECOME
MORE OF A BIGGER ISSUE.
ON MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OHIO RIVER. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BEING REPLACED BY VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT OF A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE OHIO. GIVEN THE SMALL THREAT...HAVE KEPT THE KCVG/KLUK TAFS
DRY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HOW SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS
BRING A LITTLE HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF HAS BEEN LEFT
DRY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 162309
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. SOME STRONGER CELLS SOUTH OF THE RIVER ARE
RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED CELLS ARE POPPING UP TO THE NORTH OF DAY AND
CMH IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE MID 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MODELS PREDICT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY...AND
MOISTURE. THIS WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH FLOW
VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH THRU OHIO ON
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OFFER TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH
AS WELL. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MAY ALLOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF STRATUS
AND/OR FOG. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THIS THREAT IN THE TAFS.
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. AS
SUCH...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP AT OR BELOW 500 FEET (EXCEPT FOR KLUK
WHICH IS IN THE RIVER VALLEY) WITH VSBYS IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE.
IF MORE STRATUS FORMS...FOG FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT BECOME
DENSE. HOWEVER...IF LESS STRATUS FORMS...FOG AND VSBYS MAY BECOME
MORE OF A BIGGER ISSUE.
ON MONDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
OHIO RIVER. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BEING REPLACED BY VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT OF A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE OHIO. GIVEN THE SMALL THREAT...HAVE KEPT THE KCVG/KLUK TAFS
DRY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HOW SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS
BRING A LITTLE HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF HAS BEEN LEFT
DRY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 162021
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. SOME STRONGER CELLS SOUTH OF THE RIVER ARE
RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED CELLS ARE POPPING UP TO THE NORTH OF DAY AND
CMH IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE
PREVALENT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...LEAVING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THE MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE MID 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MODELS PREDICT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY...AND
MOISTURE. THIS WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH FLOW
VEERING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY SFC FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTH THRU OHIO ON
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OFFER TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS...AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PREVAILING
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. WITH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
CINCINNATI AREA...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FAVORABLY FOR AVIATION RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR-TO-IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE FORECAST...WITH
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE AND NEAR SUNRISE. THIS
IS A MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS
DO NOT RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE CEILINGS AS LOW AS THE IFR
CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
000
FXUS61 KILN 161740
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH 100-POPS NOW IN USE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SHOWERY AND WEAK.
THE SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TODAY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED STREAM OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WSW...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON (RAW MODEL FORECASTS ARE AS HIGH
AS THE LOWER 70S...BUT LIKELY OVERDONE). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UNDER 1000 J/KG) TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
STRENGTH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW FOR A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.75" OR HIGHER NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MIGHT ALSO
SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE OVERALL SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WELL-DEFINED FORCING...DOES NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LOWER IN THE NW...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS...AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PREVAILING
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
AT THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES. WITH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE
CINCINNATI AREA...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FAVORABLY FOR AVIATION RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR-TO-IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE FORECAST...WITH
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE AND NEAR SUNRISE. THIS
IS A MEDIUM-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS
DO NOT RETAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE CEILINGS AS LOW AS THE IFR
CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 161308
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
908 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH 100-POPS NOW IN USE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SHOWERY AND WEAK.
THE SIGNAL IN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TODAY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED STREAM OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WSW...WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON (RAW MODEL FORECASTS ARE AS HIGH
AS THE LOWER 70S...BUT LIKELY OVERDONE). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UNDER 1000 J/KG) TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
STRENGTH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW FOR A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.75" OR HIGHER NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MIGHT ALSO
SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE OVERALL SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WELL-DEFINED FORCING...DOES NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LOWER IN THE NW...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDS SHIFT CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
SOME VFR SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY THE
MORE STEADY RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED TO BRING DOWN THE CIGS AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL BEING CHARGED WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS
INCOMING RAIN.
PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE MVFR IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BEHIND IT
MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COOLEST
PART OF THE PREDAWN HOURS TOMORROW. IFR CIGS ARE BEING INDICATED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER VSBYS IN A MOIST POST-FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE THAT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT...INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 161102
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDS SHIFT CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
SOME VFR SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY THE
MORE STEADY RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED TO BRING DOWN THE CIGS AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS STILL BEING CHARGED WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS
INCOMING RAIN.
PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE MVFR IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BEHIND IT
MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COOLEST
PART OF THE PREDAWN HOURS TOMORROW. IFR CIGS ARE BEING INDICATED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER VSBYS IN A MOIST POST-FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE THAT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT...INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KILN 160836
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
436 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
LOCATION AROUND THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVG OUT OF INDIANA AND INTO OHIO IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN H5 S/W IN THE QUICK ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE N. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL BY MID
MORNING...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO COMBINE WITH A SFC FRONT THAT
SAGS INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
WENT WITH BEST POPS IN DURING THE AFTN HOURS AND IN THE E. KEPT
POPS LIKELY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH UP TO AROUND 80 AGAIN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SFC FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO KY OVERNIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE NR THE
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC POPS OF CONVECTION IN THE S
OVERNIGHT. NRN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS KY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
ACROSS SRN LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT TO GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...ALLOWING
THEM TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
COOLER AREA THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE N AND THE LOWER 80S IN THE S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD SE PROVIDING GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND.
UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALLOW A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP TO RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MID WEEK THEN
RECOVER TO READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDS SHIFT CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UNTIL
THE SHOWERS OCCUR...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE FOUND AND SOME VFR
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE AT KDAY WHERE UPSTREAM SHOWERS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER THROUGH SUNRISE.
PREVAILING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE 16-20Z TIME FRAME AND SHOULD
BE MVFR IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BEHIND IT MAY
CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR KCVG DURING THE
COOLEST PART OF THE PREDAWN HOURS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON THE
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE COOLER AIR COMING IN...IFR CIGS MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAFS AND AT KCVG FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE 30 HOUR TAF.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
| 
