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000
FXUS61 KILN 210233
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR AIR FLOW WITH TROF DIGGING SE THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN MODERATE INSTBY TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTN OVER INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACRS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO ILN/S
WESTERN COUNTIES IN NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED SOUNDING NORTH OF CVG
YIELDS ELEVATED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTBY...ALONG
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS SHUD ALLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE. A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL EXIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO/MIAMI AND
WHITEWATER VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
AND UPDATED HWO PRODUCT.

TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST ACROSS INDIANA IN MODERATE
INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW
OHIO. INSTBY SHARPLY DROPS OFF INTO MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS OHIO.
THIS LINE WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE TIMED A PERIOD OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTN WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL
TROF LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE VFR
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WEST
WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 202348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES BY AN HOUR OR TWO BASED
ON TIME TRENDS FROM RADAR ON NOW WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM NERN IND BACK TO WCNTL IND. MOST CONCENTRATED N-S PORTION OF
LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF LINE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO BE
SEVERE...AND WE/RE WATCHING PORTION OF THE LINE FROM LOGANSPORT
BACK TO IL BORDER AS THE PORTION THAT WILL AFFECT US. GUST FRONT
NOW KICKING SWRD FROM SEGMENT OF LINE FROM COLUMBIA CITY BACK TO
LOGANSPORT SO THIS PORTION OF LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MESOA OVER
IND/OH SHOWS INSTBY DECREASING WITH EWRD EXTENT INTO ILN CWA AND WITH
SUNSET APPROACHING STILL THINK OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
DID UPDATE HWO TO GIVE HEADS UP TO WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND COUNTIES
THAT A GUSTY/WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY 00Z-02Z. REF
MCD#1741 THAT A NEW WATCH /IF ISSUED/ MAY GRAB A COUPLE OF OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES. ALSO PULLED RAIN CHANCES IN NRN KY AS CUMULUS/PVS
SHRA DOWN THERE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -> SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE CVG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD
MIXING TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM
200-500 J/KG. CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS
EXTENSION OF BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
AXIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
IN PARTS OF OUR NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST ACROSS INDIANA IN MODERATE
INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW
OHIO. INSTBY SHARPLY DROPS OFF INTO MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS OHIO.
THIS LINE WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE TIMED A PERIOD OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTN WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL
TROF LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE VFR
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WEST
WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 202348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES BY AN HOUR OR TWO BASED
ON TIME TRENDS FROM RADAR ON NOW WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM NERN IND BACK TO WCNTL IND. MOST CONCENTRATED N-S PORTION OF
LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF LINE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO BE
SEVERE...AND WE/RE WATCHING PORTION OF THE LINE FROM LOGANSPORT
BACK TO IL BORDER AS THE PORTION THAT WILL AFFECT US. GUST FRONT
NOW KICKING SWRD FROM SEGMENT OF LINE FROM COLUMBIA CITY BACK TO
LOGANSPORT SO THIS PORTION OF LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MESOA OVER
IND/OH SHOWS INSTBY DECREASING WITH EWRD EXTENT INTO ILN CWA AND WITH
SUNSET APPROACHING STILL THINK OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
DID UPDATE HWO TO GIVE HEADS UP TO WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND COUNTIES
THAT A GUSTY/WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY 00Z-02Z. REF
MCD#1741 THAT A NEW WATCH /IF ISSUED/ MAY GRAB A COUPLE OF OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES. ALSO PULLED RAIN CHANCES IN NRN KY AS CUMULUS/PVS
SHRA DOWN THERE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -> SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE CVG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD
MIXING TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM
200-500 J/KG. CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS
EXTENSION OF BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
AXIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
IN PARTS OF OUR NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST ACROSS INDIANA IN MODERATE
INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW
OHIO. INSTBY SHARPLY DROPS OFF INTO MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS OHIO.
THIS LINE WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE TIMED A PERIOD OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTN WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL
TROF LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE VFR
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WEST
WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 202157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
557 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES BY AN HOUR OR TWO BASED
ON TIME TRENDS FROM RADAR ON NOW WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM NERN IND BACK TO WCNTL IND. MOST CONCENTRATED N-S PORTION OF
LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF LINE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO BE
SEVERE...AND WE/RE WATCHING PORTION OF THE LINE FROM LOGANSPORT
BACK TO IL BORDER AS THE PORTION THAT WILL AFFECT US. GUST FRONT
NOW KICKING SWRD FROM SEGMENT OF LINE FROM COLUMBIA CITY BACK TO
LOGANSPORT SO THIS PORTION OF LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MESOA OVER
IND/OH SHOWS INSTBY DECREASING WITH EWRD EXTENT INTO ILN CWA AND WITH
SUNSET APPROACHING STILL THINK OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
DID UPDATE HWO TO GIVE HEADS UP TO WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND COUNTIES
THAT A GUSTY/WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY 00Z-02Z. REF
MCD#1741 THAT A NEW WATCH /IF ISSUED/ MAY GRAB A COUPLE OF OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES. ALSO PULLED RAIN CHANCES IN NRN KY AS CUMULUS/PVS
SHRA DOWN THERE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -> SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE CVG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD
MIXING TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM
200-500 J/KG. CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS
EXTENSION OF BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
AXIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
IN PARTS OF OUR NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO










000
FXUS61 KILN 202157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
557 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SPED UP ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES BY AN HOUR OR TWO BASED
ON TIME TRENDS FROM RADAR ON NOW WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION
FROM NERN IND BACK TO WCNTL IND. MOST CONCENTRATED N-S PORTION OF
LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REST OF LINE SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO BE
SEVERE...AND WE/RE WATCHING PORTION OF THE LINE FROM LOGANSPORT
BACK TO IL BORDER AS THE PORTION THAT WILL AFFECT US. GUST FRONT
NOW KICKING SWRD FROM SEGMENT OF LINE FROM COLUMBIA CITY BACK TO
LOGANSPORT SO THIS PORTION OF LINE LIKELY TO WEAKEN. MESOA OVER
IND/OH SHOWS INSTBY DECREASING WITH EWRD EXTENT INTO ILN CWA AND WITH
SUNSET APPROACHING STILL THINK OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
DID UPDATE HWO TO GIVE HEADS UP TO WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND COUNTIES
THAT A GUSTY/WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY 00Z-02Z. REF
MCD#1741 THAT A NEW WATCH /IF ISSUED/ MAY GRAB A COUPLE OF OUR FAR
NWRN COUNTIES. ALSO PULLED RAIN CHANCES IN NRN KY AS CUMULUS/PVS
SHRA DOWN THERE HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -> SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS
OF HIGHER THETA-E THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO
THE CVG AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD
MIXING TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM
200-500 J/KG. CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS
EXTENSION OF BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS
AXIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
IN PARTS OF OUR NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO









000
FXUS61 KILN 201952
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E
THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE CVG AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD MIXING TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 200-500 J/KG.
CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS EXTENSION OF
BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN PARTS OF OUR
NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 201952
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL FOCI FOR PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. FIRST...IS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E
THAT RUNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE CVG AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS HAVE WITHSTOOD MIXING TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S YIELDING SOME MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 200-500 J/KG.
CONFLUENT FLOW/VERY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO THIS EXTENSION OF
BUOYANCY AND SOME ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH ABT 7-8 PM TIED STRONGLY TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW/INSTBY. HAVE PLACED A SMALL RAIN CHANCE IN PARTS OF OUR
NRN KY COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

LARGER CONCERN IS STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS SHIFTING THROUGH
WI/IA/NRN IL ATTM ATTENDANT TO A COUPLE OF HEIGHT FALL
CENTERS...ONE IN WI THIS AFTN AND ANOTHER VERY COMPACT ONE IN ERN
ND. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS STRONG WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING AS THE THROUGH
AMPLIFIES WITH TIME TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED AS OF 19Z JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO
AND SPC WATCH #504 ACCOMPANIES THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION OFF TO
OUR NW. ACCORDING TO 20.12Z AWR-WRF...20.09Z SREF...AND MULTIPLE
WELL-AGREED UPON HRRR RUNS...A RATHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST. ORIENTATION/MAGNITUDE /30+KTS BY TONIGHT/ OF 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DURATION/ORGANIZATION TO LINE
SEGMENTS WHICH CAN ORIENT IN MORE N-S FASHION OR SOME VARIATION OF
THAT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...HRRR RUNS HAVE DEMONSTRATED SPORADIC SWATHS
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS > 50KTS ACROSS NRN IND POTENTIALLY
INVOLVING NWRN/WCNTL OH LATER THIS EVE /AFTER 10 PM OR SO/. REALLY
LIKE THE 5% WIND CONTOUR INTO WCNTL OHIO BASED ON THE HRRR/ARW WRF
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WEAKENING ORGANIZED LINE COMING INTO OUR AREA
AROUND 10 PM...PERHAPS WITH SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS FITS
CURRENT MESOA WHICH HAS MINIMUM OF INSTBY IN WRN OH DUE TO MIXED
DWPTS IN THE 50S...SO LINE SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES INTO OHIO...DESPITE BRINGING A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
VIA ADVECTION.

STRUGGLED A LOT WITH RAIN CHANCES...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WITH DYING LINE INTO ABOUT THE NWRN 1/2 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALL CAMS/PARAMETRIZED DATA SHOWING ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE SCT WITH TIME AS NIGHT WEARS ON. SO RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM A LOW CONFIDENCE 20% IN FAR SOUTH/EAST UP TO
A 70% CHANCE OR SO IN WCNTL OH. ALL WILL DEPEND HOW QUICKLY THE
INCOMING LINE WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO









000
FXUS61 KILN 201740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 201740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT CVG AND LUK...OTHERWISE TAF SITES HAVE
VFR. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MORE MVFR CEILINGS. KEPT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW SINCE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AT A DIURNALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS DIRECTION SHIFTS TO WEST ALONG THE FRONT. CVG SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 201417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201417
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS TO DISCUSS. ALTHOUGH ANY REMAINING
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 3500-6000 FOOT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KNOT
RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN. THE PRECIPITATION
(WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. A TEMPO -SHRA GROUP WAS
INCLUDED AT KDAY...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE NOT AS CERTAIN TO
RECEIVE RAIN. AS THE FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 200817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP...CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS...4 K FT TO 6 KT ACROSS THE
SRN CWFA TOWARD MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN THIS DECK TO WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE POP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IN ROADS TOWARD OUR REGION
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND
THE FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE AGAIN USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS...ALONG WITH CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS...TO HONE IN ON THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL DIG EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A LONG
WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN U.S.
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND. RAPIDLY DECREASING INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL FORCING...ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE THE
REASONS THAT THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW...DECREASING THE THREAT
TO JUST 30 AND 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE GFS/ECMWF...BELIEVE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT S/WV...WE SHOULD SEE A POCKET OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS
CAA WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL FORECAST LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO THE
NRN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. BUT AS TIME WEARS ON AND INSTABILITY
WANES...THE THREAT SHOULD RELEGATE ITSELF TO OUR NE TOWARD
CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ERIE. PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WILL UNDERGO A
CLEARING TREND...ESPECIALLY WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND AS IT SETTLES RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH A FEW
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY (UP TO 20 KNOTS)
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE DAY...GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. MVFR FOG AT KLUK
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES BY 05Z-08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 200534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH A FEW
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY (UP TO 20 KNOTS)
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE DAY...GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. MVFR FOG AT KLUK
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES BY 05Z-08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 200237
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 192343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS. A RETURN...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS
SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF FOG TO MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KLUK PRIOR TO THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE APPEARS RATHER LOW AND THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 192004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 191737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 191737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 191340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 191340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 191049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 191049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. WITH
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR RANGE (4000-5000 FEET) BUT COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER IN
PATCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 190843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO
HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE
SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON
SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH
AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES
SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED
AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 190158
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO









000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 182000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 182000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 181710
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 181710
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT
DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH AN INCREASINGLY MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT...EXPECT LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME SPOTTY CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 181347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 S/W THAT IS PASSING THRU KY IS BRINGING SOME AC TO THE SRN TAFS
ATTM. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST. IN ADDITION...SOME ST DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFTED INTO CMH/LCK. THIS ALSO SHOULD
WORK E QUICKLY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING FOG AT LUK AND ILN FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. WEAK
CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. SE
FLOW SHOULD BRING IFR FOG AGAIN TO LUK WITH MVFR FOG TO ILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 181040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUD SKY COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WARM TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70 FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 S/W THAT IS PASSING THRU KY IS BRINGING SOME AC TO THE SRN TAFS
ATTM. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST. IN ADDITION...SOME ST DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFTED INTO CMH/LCK. THIS ALSO SHOULD
WORK E QUICKLY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING FOG AT LUK AND ILN FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. WEAK
CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. SE
FLOW SHOULD BRING IFR FOG AGAIN TO LUK WITH MVFR FOG TO ILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 181040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUD SKY COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WARM TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70 FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 S/W THAT IS PASSING THRU KY IS BRINGING SOME AC TO THE SRN TAFS
ATTM. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST. IN ADDITION...SOME ST DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFTED INTO CMH/LCK. THIS ALSO SHOULD
WORK E QUICKLY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING FOG AT LUK AND ILN FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. WEAK
CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. SE
FLOW SHOULD BRING IFR FOG AGAIN TO LUK WITH MVFR FOG TO ILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 180754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUD SKY COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WARM TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70 FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELY FLOW SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
IFR FOG AT LUK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ILN.

WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 180754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUD SKY COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WARM TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70 FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELY FLOW SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
IFR FOG AT LUK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ILN.

WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 180547
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SERN IL/SRN IND SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENING. AREAS OF MID CLOUD ARE SHIFTING
THROUGH SRN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY BUT PLENTY OF CLEARING IN BETWEEN.
UPSTREAM IN ERN IL/WRN THERE IS MORE MID CLOUD BUT THIS IS
BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP A SKY COVER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
/HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH/ MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THESE TRANSIENT MID
CLOUD DECKS ATTENDANT TO THE WEAK WAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. DIURNAL
CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND WINDS ARE CALM WITH SURFACE HI IN
CONTROL. T/TD SPREADS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM 6F
TO 13F AT 01Z...AND GIVEN FCST SNDGS THINK THE VALLEYS WILL FOG
TONIGHT RATHER DEEPLY WITH SHALLOW FOG OTHER AREAS. ADDED THIS TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST EMPHASIZING VALLEYS/DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG SIGNAL IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA
PER NWP BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A POCKET OR TWO HERE. TEMPS LOOKED DECENT
AT THIS HOUR WITH LARGE VARIATION FROM POPULATED CORRIDORS TO
RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS...TYPICAL OF A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS
THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED
ON BIAS TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELY FLOW SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
IFR FOG AT LUK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ILN.

WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 180547
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SERN IL/SRN IND SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKENING. AREAS OF MID CLOUD ARE SHIFTING
THROUGH SRN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY BUT PLENTY OF CLEARING IN BETWEEN.
UPSTREAM IN ERN IL/WRN THERE IS MORE MID CLOUD BUT THIS IS
BREAKING UP. WILL KEEP A SKY COVER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
/HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH/ MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THESE TRANSIENT MID
CLOUD DECKS ATTENDANT TO THE WEAK WAVE SHIFTING THROUGH. DIURNAL
CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND WINDS ARE CALM WITH SURFACE HI IN
CONTROL. T/TD SPREADS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM 6F
TO 13F AT 01Z...AND GIVEN FCST SNDGS THINK THE VALLEYS WILL FOG
TONIGHT RATHER DEEPLY WITH SHALLOW FOG OTHER AREAS. ADDED THIS TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST EMPHASIZING VALLEYS/DRAINAGE AREAS. MORE
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG SIGNAL IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA
PER NWP BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A POCKET OR TWO HERE. TEMPS LOOKED DECENT
AT THIS HOUR WITH LARGE VARIATION FROM POPULATED CORRIDORS TO
RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS...TYPICAL OF A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS
THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED
ON BIAS TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELY FLOW SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
IFR FOG AT LUK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ILN.

WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








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