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000
FXUS61 KILN 310701
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN A
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA FREE
OF CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS OUR REGION BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS HELPED KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH 12Z SO
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY SOME OF THE CLOUDS
THAT ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD CU UP ONCE
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS
DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 310701
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN A
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR AREA FREE
OF CONVECTION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS OUR REGION BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS HELPED KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH 12Z SO
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY SOME OF THE CLOUDS
THAT ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD CU UP ONCE
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS
DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 310537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE DEPARTING
S/WV...AND ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
ILN/DAY/IND. AS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEPARTS FCST
AREA...LINGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SECONDARY S/WV OVER SOUTHERN WI DROPPING
DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING THE THINKING THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FCST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS HELPED KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH 12Z SO
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY SOME OF THE CLOUDS
THAT ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD CU UP ONCE
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS
DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 310537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE DEPARTING
S/WV...AND ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
ILN/DAY/IND. AS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEPARTS FCST
AREA...LINGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SECONDARY S/WV OVER SOUTHERN WI DROPPING
DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING THE THINKING THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FCST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS HELPED KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH 12Z SO
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
DAYBREAK BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY SOME OF THE CLOUDS
THAT ARE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD CU UP ONCE
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT IN THE WAY OF FORCING SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS
DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 310030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
830 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE DEPARTING
S/WV...AND ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
ILN/DAY/IND. AS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEPARTS FCST
AREA...LINGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SECONDARY S/WV OVER SOUTHERN WI DROPPING
DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING THE THINKING THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FCST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA STILL DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
AND EASTERN GT LAKES...WITH MEAN FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY/KCVG/KILN/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT
02-03Z AS CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A LITTLE MORE FOCUS
THAN JUST TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE SOUTH OF THE UPR TROUGH SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF TAF SITES...SO ASIDE FROM SOME MID CLOUDS...NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WITH LL MOISTURE LINGERING...SOME LIGHT BR EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FG PRONE KLUK WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
08-13Z TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 310030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
830 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE DEPARTING
S/WV...AND ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
ILN/DAY/IND. AS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEPARTS FCST
AREA...LINGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SECONDARY S/WV OVER SOUTHERN WI DROPPING
DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING THE THINKING THAT ANY ASSOCIATED
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FCST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA STILL DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC
AND EASTERN GT LAKES...WITH MEAN FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY/KCVG/KILN/KLUK THROUGH ABOUT
02-03Z AS CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A LITTLE MORE FOCUS
THAN JUST TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.

SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE SOUTH OF THE UPR TROUGH SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF TAF SITES...SO ASIDE FROM SOME MID CLOUDS...NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WITH LL MOISTURE LINGERING...SOME LIGHT BR EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FG PRONE KLUK WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
08-13Z TIMEFRAME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 302255
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LEFTOVER AND WEAKENING CONVERGENT BAND
OF SHOWERS FROM PORTSMOUTH TO CINCINNATI TO INDIANAPOLIS...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND SHOULD
BE DONE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  EXPECT MAYBE A STRAY STORM TO
MAKE IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
     THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN









000
FXUS61 KILN 302255
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LEFTOVER AND WEAKENING CONVERGENT BAND
OF SHOWERS FROM PORTSMOUTH TO CINCINNATI TO INDIANAPOLIS...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND SHOULD
BE DONE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  EXPECT MAYBE A STRAY STORM TO
MAKE IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
     THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 302011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A W-E CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ESE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND STRETCHES THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WEST TOWARDS
INDIANAPOLIS. BULK OF THE FORCING FOR THESE STORMS IS EAST OF I-71
BETWEEN CMH AND ILN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.

ACTIVITY WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE WITH NIGHTFALL AND THE
DOWNWARD MOTION FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT MAYBE A STRAY STORM TO MAKE IT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
     THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN









000
FXUS61 KILN 302011
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME...GENERALLY ENDING BY THE EVENING

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A W-E CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ESE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND STRETCHES THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WEST TOWARDS
INDIANAPOLIS. BULK OF THE FORCING FOR THESE STORMS IS EAST OF I-71
BETWEEN CMH AND ILN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.

ACTIVITY WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE WITH NIGHTFALL AND THE
DOWNWARD MOTION FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT MAYBE A STRAY STORM TO MAKE IT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50S WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TOMORROW BUT THERE SHOULD BE
A LACK OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
ATTM BUT WOULD NOT ARGUE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES MORE TOMORROW...UPPER 70S NORTH
LOWER 80S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RISE A SIMILAR AMOUNT
AND ONLY DROP TO AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 12Z FRIDAY /01.12Z/ -- DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
INTACT IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLOW PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE...THE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...STRONG WRN CONUS RIDGE...AND DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC
WATERS SOUTH OF ALASKA. ACCORDING TO 30.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...A TRIO OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FORCE THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS IN THE ERN CONUS TO RETROGRADE/REFOCUS BACK TO THE WEST OVER
THE OH VALLEY FRI/SAT...WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING WITH TIME. IN
FACT BY SATURDAY...A DEEPER SWLY MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL
OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH AXIS REFORMS TO THE WEST.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ACT TO RECARVE/SHARPEN THE TROUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...INDUCING SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THE ORGANIZING TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT
EVENING. WHILE LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /NOT
MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE PROCESSES/ THERE
WILL BE MODEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE RISES THAT OCCUR FRI/SAT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UNSETTLED/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN TN/KY.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SEEING TWO
IDEAS IN THE DATA...ONE IN WHICH THE AXIS LINGERS OVER OHIO/KY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION /30.12Z ECMWF/ WHICH
SHUNTS THE AXIS EAST INTO PA ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER WOULD YIELD A
DRIER SUNDAY - THE FORMER STILL SOME LINGERING DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. PLAYING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INPUT
FROM HPC WILL KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN CNTL
OH/SCIOTO VALLEY.

RUNNING WITH A DRY SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND NONDESCRIPT/WEAK FLOW PATTERN ABSENT OF
ANY WAVES. TUES/WED...GLANCING BLOW FROM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA MAY PUSH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE INTO OHIO/IND THESE DAYS WITH
SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUES AFTN INTO WED AMIDST
VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. AGAIN...SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY...AND WARMER...AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT/TEMP
ANOMALIES WILL FINALLY HAVE BEEN PUSHED EAST/NORTHEAST ON FLATTENING
OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
     THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 301749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PER LATEST HRRR...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OHIO. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...500-700 J/KG
OF 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST
UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
...THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 301749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PER LATEST HRRR...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OHIO. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...500-700 J/KG
OF 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST
UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA
...THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO
SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER
FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 301430
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PER LATEST HRRR...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OHIO. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...500-700 J/KG
OF 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST
UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD THEN CU UP THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH THERE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIURNAL SHOWERS/CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 301430
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PER LATEST HRRR...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL OHIO. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...500-700 J/KG
OF 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST
UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD THEN CU UP THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH THERE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIURNAL SHOWERS/CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 301033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE LOW...500 J/KG
M/L...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD THEN CU UP THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH THERE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIURNAL SHOWERS/CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 301033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE LOW...500 J/KG
M/L...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD THEN CU UP THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH THERE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DIURNAL SHOWERS/CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE SOME IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 300709
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE LOW...500 J/KG
M/L...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC IS FLOATING AROUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
MAY EVEN FILL IN A LITTLE BIT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KLUK
WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO KLUK/KCVG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE
THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND HOLD OFF ON
ANYTHING FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 300709
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND
PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE LOW...500 J/KG
M/L...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER
LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC IS FLOATING AROUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
MAY EVEN FILL IN A LITTLE BIT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KLUK
WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO KLUK/KCVG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE
THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND HOLD OFF ON
ANYTHING FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 300531
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES THERE A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC IS FLOATING AROUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
MAY EVEN FILL IN A LITTLE BIT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KLUK
WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO KLUK/KCVG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE
THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND HOLD OFF ON
ANYTHING FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 300531
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES THERE A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY SC IS FLOATING AROUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
MAY EVEN FILL IN A LITTLE BIT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KLUK
WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO KLUK/KCVG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE
THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND HOLD OFF ON
ANYTHING FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 300222
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES THERE A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIST AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY BROKEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. BUT PROBABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 300222
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1022 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES THERE A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIST AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY BROKEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. BUT PROBABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 292355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
500MB NEGATIVE ANOMALY /TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY
CLIMO/ REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE FORM
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE -4 SIGMA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ACTUALLY CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS /WITH RESPECT
TO CLIMATOLOGY/ AND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUBSEQUENTLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ACROSS OHIO/KY...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY JULY 29TH ARE BEING THREATENED. A
RENEWED BURST OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OWING TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SCT-BKN LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA AT THE PRESENT /20Z/.

THIS IS TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE DESPITE SOME
MEAGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE /29.00Z SSEO/ IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH PAST
00Z AS IT MOVES INTO SERN IND/WRN OH. UNTIL THEN...IT SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO AT MINIMUM WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY 23Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST WHERE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR /20KTS/ THUS THINK ACTIVITY IS
JUST ABOUT AT MAXIMUM OR WILL BE SO IN NEXT HOUR AS IT CROSSES ERN
IND BEFORE IT STARTS TO CYCLE DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS FOR THE 30TH /MIN TEMP/
SHOULD BE SAFE AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIST AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY BROKEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. BUT PROBABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 292355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
500MB NEGATIVE ANOMALY /TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY
CLIMO/ REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE FORM
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE -4 SIGMA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ACTUALLY CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS /WITH RESPECT
TO CLIMATOLOGY/ AND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUBSEQUENTLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ACROSS OHIO/KY...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY JULY 29TH ARE BEING THREATENED. A
RENEWED BURST OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OWING TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SCT-BKN LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA AT THE PRESENT /20Z/.

THIS IS TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE DESPITE SOME
MEAGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE /29.00Z SSEO/ IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH PAST
00Z AS IT MOVES INTO SERN IND/WRN OH. UNTIL THEN...IT SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO AT MINIMUM WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY 23Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST WHERE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR /20KTS/ THUS THINK ACTIVITY IS
JUST ABOUT AT MAXIMUM OR WILL BE SO IN NEXT HOUR AS IT CROSSES ERN
IND BEFORE IT STARTS TO CYCLE DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS FOR THE 30TH /MIN TEMP/
SHOULD BE SAFE AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIST AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY BROKEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. BUT PROBABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 292008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
500MB NEGATIVE ANOMALY /TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY
CLIMO/ REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE FORM
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE -4 SIGMA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ACTUALLY CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS /WITH RESPECT
TO CLIMATOLOGY/ AND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUBSEQUENTLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ACROSS OHIO/KY...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY JULY 29TH ARE BEING THREATENED. A
RENEWED BURST OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OWING TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SCT-BKN LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA AT THE PRESENT /20Z/.

THIS IS TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE DESPITE SOME
MEAGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE /29.00Z SSEO/ IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH PAST
00Z AS IT MOVES INTO SERN IND/WRN OH. UNTIL THEN...IT SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO AT MINIMUM WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY 23Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST WHERE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR /20KTS/ THUS THINK ACTIVITY IS
JUST ABOUT AT MAXIMUM OR WILL BE SO IN NEXT HOUR AS IT CROSSES ERN
IND BEFORE IT STARTS TO CYCLE DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS FOR THE 30TH /MIN TEMP/
SHOULD BE SAFE AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD WANE AND THE SFC TROF WEAKER...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND
SOME POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS TO
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN AND KLCK.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD PEAK HEATING. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
BEST COVERAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR THE NRN TAF SITES OF KDAY..KCMH...AND
KLCK. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 291744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD WANE AND THE SFC TROF WEAKER...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND
SOME POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS TO
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN AND KLCK.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD PEAK HEATING. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
BEST COVERAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR THE NRN TAF SITES OF KDAY..KCMH...AND
KLCK. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 291744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA
TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY
LATE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD WANE AND THE SFC TROF WEAKER...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND
SOME POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS TO
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN AND KLCK.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD PEAK HEATING. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
BEST COVERAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR THE NRN TAF SITES OF KDAY..KCMH...AND
KLCK. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 291504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 291033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SCT-BKN SC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY VFR BUT MAY BRIEFLY
DIP INTO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY SC MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 290239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 290239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 282351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 282351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT
PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281732
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 281447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KILN 281447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY TO THE
LOW 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







000
FXUS61 KILN 281052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO









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