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000
FXUS61 KILN 282333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN DURING THE DAY. VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. APPEARS
THAT THEY WILL NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITY OR LOWER CEILINGS TOO MUCH
AT LEAST INITIALLY /THROUGH 00Z/. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z AND THEN STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 282333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN DURING THE DAY. VERY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. APPEARS
THAT THEY WILL NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITY OR LOWER CEILINGS TOO MUCH
AT LEAST INITIALLY /THROUGH 00Z/. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z AND THEN STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECWMF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 281947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECWMF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK










000
FXUS61 KILN 281947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECWMF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 281947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND WEST
VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND SOME
WIND. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUT US CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AND SEE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ONCE AGAIN. TOOK THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE AND SHAVED A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF IT WHICH SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. I DO
NOT SEE ANY PARAMETER THAT WOULD BE OFF SUGGESTING A WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OH AT 6Z...SETTLING IN WV AT 12Z. NORTHWEST AND INDIANA
COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW SET UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSET BY CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT WILL NOT GET PUSHED OUT WITHOUT SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DUE TO THE SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KICK IN AND
PROVIDE FOR A COOL BUT NICE SPRING DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S COULD PLACE HIGHER WITH MORE SUN THAN NOT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE A 35-40 DEG DEPARTURE
FROM MORNING LOWS. WHILE THESE DIURNAL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER THAN
TYPICALLY EXPECTED...THE STRONG SLY PUSH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
SUGGEST SUCH A SCENARIO.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ENOUGH WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT TO WRING
OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN
THE WEST AND BY EVENING IN THE EAST. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WHILE
MOST AREAS SEE SOME...A FEW SPOTS COULD MISS OUT OR ONLY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST. HAVE PUT IN
AROUND .1 TO .15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE EXPECTED QPF FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD BE SCATTERED AS IT WORKS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. H5 DYNAMICS ARE WELL BEHIND/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT
SO THAT THUNDER SHOULD NOT PLAY A PART IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEST WINDS WILL ONLY USHER IN LOW
TEMPS SUN NIGHT THAT ARE IN THE MID 30S...A MARKED UPTICK FROM
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE 50S...POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IF SUN LASTS LONGER THAN THE CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MODELS ARE ALL NOTING A DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MAKING A SE
PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO NERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 3-4 /TUES AND WED/ BEFORE
CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK -
WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH.

TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS /WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH/ WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE SLIDING
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NRN OHIO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR AREA
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY /SOUTHWEST/ AND INCREASED WINDS
SOMEWHAT THIS FORECAST WITH HIGH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS /GFS AND NAM/ EXPECT THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER ANEMIC
PRECIPITABLE WATER /BELOW NORMAL/ SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BULK
OF SATURATION AND BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF TRACK
OF THE LOW...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CNTL OHIO TUE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A DRY/BREEZY DAY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.

WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END
AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS
DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE
MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS
THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER
THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD
SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES
FOR THURS.

GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT
SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH
FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR
IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE
SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER
WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING.
DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL
WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/.

ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS
TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT
WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED
FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND
28.12Z ECWMF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS
AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD
RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR
REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES
OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN
COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK










000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUED THE FLURRIES MENTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO...PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS WHERE BETTER RETURNS FROM TCMH RADAR ARE
FOUND UNDER THE MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD. A FEW STRAY RETURNS OVER
OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES SW OF CINCY HAD ME ERR ON THE
CAUTIOUS SIDE AND INCLUDE FLURRIES FOR THE CINCY METRO AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WILL BE CUT OFF
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
WANING DAYLIGHT FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

DID NOT ADJUST MAX TEMP TODAY BUT TWEAKED THE FORECAST HOURLY
T/TD TO COME IN LINE WITH OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS KCVG AND
KLUK. CU WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF
THE KCVG TAF. ADDED IN RAIN TO THE LAST HOUR OF THE KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 281543
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1143 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER AND NE OF COLUMBUS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
FOR TODAY HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND WENT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 281024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE
STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES









000
FXUS61 KILN 280801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN
DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE
ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 280457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT
RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 280220
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN
FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272337
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 271030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 270827
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 270551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LIGHT VIS SHOWING VFR CLOUD DECK RAPIDLY EXPANDING THIS
MORNING AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VFR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 850 WINDS NEARING
20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY BUT
CHANCE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AS OF NOW. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 270228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1028 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE
LOW LEVEL LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
WORK INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD
INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KILN 262340
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN
SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK
SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL
NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 262049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
449 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND
SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO
WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT
IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE
HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING
AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE
QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS
ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE
DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM
THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.  WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.  A RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING
AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL.  TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT.

A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  AFTER
THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE
AFFECTING THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DUE TO POST FRONTAL CAA WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR
THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

STRONGER SURGE OF CAA WILL HIT THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE CAA ALONG WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ONLY WENT VCSH ATTM TO COVER THE PCPN CHANCE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.


OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE
AFFECTING THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DUE TO POST FRONTAL CAA WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR
THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

STRONGER SURGE OF CAA WILL HIT THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE CAA ALONG WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ONLY WENT VCSH ATTM TO COVER THE PCPN CHANCE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.


OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE
AFFECTING THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DUE TO POST FRONTAL CAA WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR
THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

STRONGER SURGE OF CAA WILL HIT THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE CAA ALONG WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ONLY WENT VCSH ATTM TO COVER THE PCPN CHANCE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.


OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 261812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE
AFFECTING THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DUE TO POST FRONTAL CAA WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR
THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

STRONGER SURGE OF CAA WILL HIT THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE CAA ALONG WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ONLY WENT VCSH ATTM TO COVER THE PCPN CHANCE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.


OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 261812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ARE
AFFECTING THE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DUE TO POST FRONTAL CAA WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR
THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT
TO VFR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TONIGHT.

STRONGER SURGE OF CAA WILL HIT THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z IN THE CAA ALONG WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ONLY WENT VCSH ATTM TO COVER THE PCPN CHANCE.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE OF
A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.


OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST
INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST
INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST
INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 261049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST
INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH
ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATER.

THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST
AFFECT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE
OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO
MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A
SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO
VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.

CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260645
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FCST AREA AND NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR KGCI/KPAH BEGINNING TO PUSH ALONG
THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG/NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE SOONER TO PUSH INTO THE SW AFTER
06Z. SHOWERS THEN SPREAD OVER AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...LIMITED
FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. MAIN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF
ENOUGH WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. REST OF THE CWA
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE DAYTIME UNTIL A BETTER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER TO SNOW.

ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCEMENT
THEN OCCURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE
MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMA FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM
CLIMATOLOGY...SUGGESTING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN THE OFFING ON SATURDAY. THE KEY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
/STRATOCUMULUS/ AND IF A LARGER CLOUD FIELD IS SLOWER TO ERODE ON
SATURDAY WE COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY MAKE
THIS TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. EITHER WAY...A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CLOUDS STUBBORNLY GIVING WAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF CLEARING DOESN/T OCCUR DURING THE DAY...IT
MOST CERTAINLY WILL AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON
SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE
COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR/AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260645
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FCST AREA AND NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR KGCI/KPAH BEGINNING TO PUSH ALONG
THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG/NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE SOONER TO PUSH INTO THE SW AFTER
06Z. SHOWERS THEN SPREAD OVER AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...LIMITED
FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. MAIN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF
ENOUGH WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. REST OF THE CWA
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE DAYTIME UNTIL A BETTER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER TO SNOW.

ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCEMENT
THEN OCCURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE
MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMA FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM
CLIMATOLOGY...SUGGESTING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN THE OFFING ON SATURDAY. THE KEY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
/STRATOCUMULUS/ AND IF A LARGER CLOUD FIELD IS SLOWER TO ERODE ON
SATURDAY WE COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY MAKE
THIS TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. EITHER WAY...A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CLOUDS STUBBORNLY GIVING WAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF CLEARING DOESN/T OCCUR DURING THE DAY...IT
MOST CERTAINLY WILL AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON
SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE
COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR/AR







000
FXUS61 KILN 260645
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FCST AREA AND NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR KGCI/KPAH BEGINNING TO PUSH ALONG
THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG/NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE SOONER TO PUSH INTO THE SW AFTER
06Z. SHOWERS THEN SPREAD OVER AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...LIMITED
FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. MAIN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF
ENOUGH WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. REST OF THE CWA
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE DAYTIME UNTIL A BETTER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER TO SNOW.

ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCEMENT
THEN OCCURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE
MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMA FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM
CLIMATOLOGY...SUGGESTING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN THE OFFING ON SATURDAY. THE KEY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
/STRATOCUMULUS/ AND IF A LARGER CLOUD FIELD IS SLOWER TO ERODE ON
SATURDAY WE COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY MAKE
THIS TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. EITHER WAY...A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CLOUDS STUBBORNLY GIVING WAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF CLEARING DOESN/T OCCUR DURING THE DAY...IT
MOST CERTAINLY WILL AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON
SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE
COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO PIVOT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY
TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN
REGION OF ELEVATED INSTBY AT NOSE OF 8H 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THIS REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER IN SRN TAF SITES WHERE MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY IS
EXPECTED. CAN NOT RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD
HOLD TOGETHER INTO DAY AND CMH AREAS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING. AFTER INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THRU...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THRU AND THEN BECOME
NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR/AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 260126
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FCST AREA AND NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR KGCI/KPAH BEGINNING TO PUSH ALONG
THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG/NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE SOONER TO PUSH INTO THE SW AFTER
06Z. SHOWERS THEN SPREAD OVER AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHILE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...LIMITED
FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE IN THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY. MAIN OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE MORNING...BUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF
ENOUGH WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA. REST OF THE CWA
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH THE DAYTIME UNTIL A BETTER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR COMES IN AND CHANGES ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER TO SNOW.

ONE SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCEMENT
THEN OCCURS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THERE
MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MINIMA FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST
WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM
CLIMATOLOGY...SUGGESTING SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN THE OFFING ON SATURDAY. THE KEY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
/STRATOCUMULUS/ AND IF A LARGER CLOUD FIELD IS SLOWER TO ERODE ON
SATURDAY WE COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN
AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY MAKE
THIS TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE. EITHER WAY...A VERY CHILLY DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH CLOUDS STUBBORNLY GIVING WAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF CLEARING DOESN/T OCCUR DURING THE DAY...IT
MOST CERTAINLY WILL AT NIGHT GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON
SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE
COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO.

SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A
RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN
ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO
SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION.

SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD
ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT
RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH
ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET
ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE TWEAKED TIMING SLIGHTLY OF ONSET OF SHOWERS...AND KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER AT ONLY KCVG/KLUK...WITH A POSSIBILITY STILL AT
KILN IN THE 10-13Z TIMEFRAME AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO/OHIO RIVER AREA IN THIS TIME. AFTER
ESPECIALLY 07Z IN THE WEATERN LOCATIONS AND 09Z IN THE EAST...MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL DOMINATE AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES
IN. THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING TO MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
QUICKLY...SO WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER AFTER
15Z...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL LINGER UNTIL 18-21Z.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







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