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000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 241813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES.
HANDLED ANY REMAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOME LESSER
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  MVFR
AND VFR CIGS ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR OR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 241441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU
THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS
OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST
AND THEN DIMINISHING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET
PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED
SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING.

AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER
IN THIS CAA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 241145
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN
HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET
INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH
THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH
SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING
EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS
AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT
NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240942
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING.

A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS
ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE
IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER
MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC
WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED
NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 240259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 240002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 240002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A VERY STRONG
MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS...CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR...BUT POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VALUES INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN
ACTIVITY.

ON MONDAY...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE AS IT MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY...PCPN
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREDOMINATING
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

A BIG ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AS THEY
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER WITH TIME. GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA AND SINKING AIR WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 232117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS









000
FXUS61 KILN 232117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED ON MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. IN A BAND
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS. MODEL QPF
SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS SHOW ABOUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
IN BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY MILD IN THE LOWER 50S IN A WELL MIXED AND INSULATED
REGIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MVFR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 231602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MFVR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 231602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MFVR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 231602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MFVR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 231602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MFVR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 231527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 231527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 230558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 230256
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
956 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS
THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 230254
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME RECOVER EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS THICKEN AN PERHAPS
A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 230254
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND
PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME RECOVER EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS THICKEN AN PERHAPS
A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH  ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 230006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 230006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST
ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE
LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 222113
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER
TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
RECENT NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON
WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS ENDED...AND THE
FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...AND SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE DAYTON TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY...AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 221609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221609
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1109 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO ARE FINALLY WARMING SOLIDLY ABOVE
FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY (WHICH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
16Z) HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REGIONAL TRAFFIC AND ROADWAY
SENSOR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MONITORED AS A PROXY FOR
EXPECTED ICE CONDITIONS...AND SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE PAST HOUR.

CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND INDIANA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS VERY DIFFICULT...DRIVEN BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION WILL NOT BE BROKEN OVER MOST OF THE
ILN CWA TODAY...MEANING THAT THE EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SENSITIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH MIXING CAN OCCUR (AND NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED). FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SOME
APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPS ON HIGHER-RESOLUTION
NCEP-RUN MODELS...WHICH SHOW AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ON A LINE FROM ADAMS COUNTY OHIO TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY
OHIO (AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY OR TWO). A GRADIENT IS DEFINITELY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT NOT
OF THAT MAGNITUDE. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE MAX
TEMP FORECAST...WHICH ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL OHIO BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 221149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 221149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES HAVE BECOME FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL OH WHERE THE WARM AIR HAS LAGGED AND NOT BLOWN OUT THE
ENTRENCHED COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PLAIN RAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z...MAYBE EARLIER. CIGS RIGHT AT THE MVFR 3KFT CUTOFF WILL
BE FOUND AT KCMH/KLCK AND WHERE A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY HIT REMAINING
TAF SITES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK IN FAVOR OF 6-8KFT CLOUD DECK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS AND A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER MVFR STRATUS WORKS IN
RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 221122
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS.


EARLIER DISCUSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS
MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 220950
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING
MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN
COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN WITH THAT.

PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE
MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL
PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP
FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.

A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS
THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA
AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN
AGAIN,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL
CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 220549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT
THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE
SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO
EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2
HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE.

REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF
A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 220226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 220226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT
EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE
OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO
OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE
AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 212336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 212336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS
LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA
APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN
AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 212127
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 212127
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WE COULD
STILL SEE THEM BUMP UP A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THEM TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS
THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET
ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP
TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE
GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX
FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA
INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR









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