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000
FXUS61 KILN 040246
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THAT ALSO GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DID NOT ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 040246
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THAT ALSO GET MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. DID NOT ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 032354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IN NRN KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO SLIP TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. THEREFORE THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR THE SHOWERS ARE
BREAKING UP...SO LOWERED THE POPS UP THERE AND SPED UP THE
OVERALL EXITING OF THE POPS ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 032354
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IN NRN KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO SLIP TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. THEREFORE THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR THE SHOWERS ARE
BREAKING UP...SO LOWERED THE POPS UP THERE AND SPED UP THE
OVERALL EXITING OF THE POPS ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 032346
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL RIDE E ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY
WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8 PM...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE ON
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. 12Z NAM HAS PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS AND
KEEPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SO HAVE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR THE
FIRST PARTS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW QUARTER OF
THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 032346
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL RIDE E ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY
WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8 PM...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE ON
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. 12Z NAM HAS PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS AND
KEEPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SO HAVE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR THE
FIRST PARTS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW QUARTER OF
THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE
LEFT LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT
TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO IFR VSBY AT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 032035
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL RIDE E ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY
WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8 PM...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE ON
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. 12Z NAM HAS PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS AND
KEEPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SO HAVE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR THE
FIRST PARTS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW QUARTER OF
THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 032035
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL RIDE E ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY
WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8 PM...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE ON
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. 12Z NAM HAS PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS AND
KEEPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SO HAVE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR THE
FIRST PARTS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW QUARTER OF
THE FA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO NRN IL/IN ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE
FA DRY. IN ERN KENTUCKY...LINGERING PCPN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THINK THAT IT WILL STAY SE OF THE FA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS WILL BE 80.

THE SFC FRONT SLIPS FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE COAST. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITHOUT
THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE NAM HOLDS THE
UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER MODELS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH AND THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS
SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE FRONT ABOUND...AND
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS FROM NW-SE TUESDAY AND
LINGERING IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD ON WED NIGHT TO THE NORTH
WHEREAS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS EVOLVE A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MODELS DIFFER...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 031744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 031744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 031744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 031744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT PCPN IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS IT HAS SHIFTED ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TREND ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW FOR A TEMPO MVFR -SHRA
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PUT
KCVG/KLUK IN BETWEEN A BETTER CHANCE TO THEIR NORTH AND SOUTH SO
WILL JUST GO WITH A VCSH THERE AT THIS POINT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES EAST AND WE START TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN FILLS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR/AND OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY BR/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 031406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH.
KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO









000
FXUS61 KILN 031406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH.
KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 031101
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS
AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2
INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY
TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG
THE AFTN.

GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL
FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH.
KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 031101
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS
AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2
INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY
TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG
THE AFTN.

GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL
FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH.
KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 030911
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS
AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2
INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY
TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG
THE AFTN.

GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL
FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 030911
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS
AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2
INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY
TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG
THE AFTN.

GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL
FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 030911
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WEST AND MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST. AN EMBEDDED S/W IN THE FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK ENE ALONG E-W ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KY. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH SFC /925MB LOW TRACKING THRU NRN KY THIS
AFTN. THIS PLACES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE A LTL FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. PW/S INCREASE TODAY...APPROACHING 2
INCHES OR CLOSE TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY
TO DEVELOP WITH BLYR CAPES OF 1000-1400 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTH DURG
THE AFTN.

GIVEN TRENDS...WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LTL
FURTHER NORTH ACRS ALL OF NRN KY AND INTO S CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
ALSO BUMP UP POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
ACRS THE SOUTH.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 030542
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







000
FXUS61 KILN 030542
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 030542
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND
LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND AFTER MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FORM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z. NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT FORECAST VFR WITH SITES FARTHER FROM LOW
CENTER AND CONCENTRATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE
LOW MOVING EAST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 030125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 030125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 030125
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY...KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NOT TO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A STALLED FRONT
REMAINS PLACED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH SHOWERS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. DID GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY HOLD UP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ESP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR NOW THINK FOG WILL REMAIN ISOLATED SO HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION-->
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING
CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER
THE REGION...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/HAINES/SITES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 022324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
724 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW. THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN
OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH
A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT. WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S.
35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES








000
FXUS61 KILN 022324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
724 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW. THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN
OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH
A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT. WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S.
35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY. MAIN TAF SITES THIS
WILL AFFECT ARE KCVG AND KLUK. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WE LOOSE DAY LIGHT.

OVERNIGHT THE SREF IS SHOWING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE WET. THIS AGAIN WILL MAINLY
BE AT KCVG/ KLUK. FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH WHERE LESS RAIN FELL
THINK THE CHANCE OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS. GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY TOMORROW SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS VCSH
BUT THUNDER MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. ALSO AM THINKING
COVERAGE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALSO PUSHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADDED A VCSH
TO ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAINES







000
FXUS61 KILN 022111
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW. THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN
OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH
A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT. WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S.
35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER THUNDER
THREAT TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THEIR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PCPN WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME MVFR BR/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WOULD THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 022111
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW. THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN
OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH
A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT. WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S.
35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER THUNDER
THREAT TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THEIR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PCPN WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME MVFR BR/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WOULD THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 021801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
MAINTAINED THEMSELVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/850 MB LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE BECOME
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
BETWEEN THIS AND THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
EAST. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER THUNDER
THREAT TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THEIR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PCPN WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME MVFR BR/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WOULD THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL







000
FXUS61 KILN 021801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
MAINTAINED THEMSELVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/850 MB LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE BECOME
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
BETWEEN THIS AND THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
EAST. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER THUNDER
THREAT TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THEIR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PCPN WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME MVFR BR/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WOULD THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089-090-094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 021351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
MAINTAINED THEMSELVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/850 MB LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE BECOME
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
BETWEEN THIS AND THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
EAST. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET  AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LINGER INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY
WHILE THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM
TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPORARY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW/S
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH AT KCVG/KLUK...THEN CEILINGS
MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE AND THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 021351
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
MAINTAINED THEMSELVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/850 MB LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AS WE BECOME
A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND REGIME...SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
BETWEEN THIS AND THE FAIRLY WET SOIL CONDITIONS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED...SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY
EAST. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET  AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LINGER INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY
WHILE THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM
TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPORARY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW/S
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH AT KCVG/KLUK...THEN CEILINGS
MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE AND THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN









000
FXUS61 KILN 021033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON THE WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND THETA-E PLOTS FROM RECENT
NAM/RAP RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TODAY IS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-MOVING LOW...CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. DISCOUNTING THE CHALLENGES WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SITUATION FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...COVERING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE NWS WILMINGTON FORECAST AREA WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS VERY
LOW IN THE ILN CWA (NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY)...WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY WEAK WIND FLOW BELOW 500MB.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PROLONGED OR
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING (AND IN AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AS HEAVIER RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.

AFTER THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE COOL AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR VALUES AGAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET  AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LINGER INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY
WHILE THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM
TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPORARY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW/S
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH AT KCVG/KLUK...THEN CEILINGS
MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE AND THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 021033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON THE WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND THETA-E PLOTS FROM RECENT
NAM/RAP RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TODAY IS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-MOVING LOW...CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. DISCOUNTING THE CHALLENGES WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SITUATION FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...COVERING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE NWS WILMINGTON FORECAST AREA WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS VERY
LOW IN THE ILN CWA (NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY)...WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY WEAK WIND FLOW BELOW 500MB.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PROLONGED OR
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING (AND IN AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AS HEAVIER RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.

AFTER THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE COOL AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR VALUES AGAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET  AND HOW LONG IT WILL
LINGER INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY
WHILE THE KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM
TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPORARY LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW/S
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE ENOUGH AT KCVG/KLUK...THEN CEILINGS
MAY DROP BELOW 2000 FEET. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WILL STICK
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE AND THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 020811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON THE WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND THETA-E PLOTS FROM RECENT
NAM/RAP RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TODAY IS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-MOVING LOW...CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. DISCOUNTING THE CHALLENGES WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SITUATION FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...COVERING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE NWS WILMINGTON FORECAST AREA WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS VERY
LOW IN THE ILN CWA (NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY)...WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY WEAK WIND FLOW BELOW 500MB.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PROLONGED OR
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING (AND IN AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AS HEAVIER RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.

AFTER THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE COOL AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR VALUES AGAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z. THEREAFTER...THIS
PCPN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE
LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY WHILE THE
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE THEREFORE
PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARY
LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE
KCVG/KLUK SHOULD SEE THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN...HAVE LOWERED THEIR CEILINGS TO BELOW 2000 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE
TO BETTER ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 020811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON THE WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND THETA-E PLOTS FROM RECENT
NAM/RAP RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS
STRETCHED WEST-TO-EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE APPRECIABLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TODAY IS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-MOVING LOW...CONVECTION
HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. DISCOUNTING THE CHALLENGES WITH THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SITUATION FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW AGREE THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...COVERING ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE NWS WILMINGTON FORECAST AREA WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS VERY
LOW IN THE ILN CWA (NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY)...WITH VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NOTABLY WEAK WIND FLOW BELOW 500MB.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR PROLONGED OR
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING (AND IN AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AS HEAVIER RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.

AFTER THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE COOL AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR VALUES AGAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES BY FRIDAY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
MOTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING
AT SURFACE PRESSURES AND 700/850MB HEIGHTS...THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTHWEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS IT
PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM12 TRACK IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE A CMC/ECMWF COMPROMISE COMES NICELY IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA) WITHOUT FORECASTING THE SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS MODELED BY
THE GFS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN STUNTING THE DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES SHOULD COME BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z. THEREAFTER...THIS
PCPN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE
LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY WHILE THE
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE THEREFORE
PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARY
LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE
KCVG/KLUK SHOULD SEE THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN...HAVE LOWERED THEIR CEILINGS TO BELOW 2000 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE
TO BETTER ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 020529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z. THEREAFTER...THIS
PCPN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE
LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY WHILE THE
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE THEREFORE
PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARY
LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE
KCVG/KLUK SHOULD SEE THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN...HAVE LOWERED THEIR CEILINGS TO BELOW 2000 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE
TO BETTER ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 020529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

EVEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW DIGGING MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERTURB A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES HOW STRONG...HOW FAR NORTH...AND
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO RIPPLE EAST/SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE FROM THE WEST TOWARD 12Z. THEREAFTER...THIS
PCPN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE
LOW WILL TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT/TOMORROW. THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN TERMINALS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY WHILE THE
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE. HAVE THEREFORE
PLACED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK (HIGHEST CHANCE) AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. WILL NOT PLACE TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS
THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND SPORADIC FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARY
LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW
POSITION AND HOW FAST IT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST. THUS...HAVE
JUST KEPT SOME VCSH DESCRIPTORS FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. SINCE
KCVG/KLUK SHOULD SEE THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN...HAVE LOWERED THEIR CEILINGS TO BELOW 2000 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE
TO BETTER ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 020209
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1009 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP









000
FXUS61 KILN 020209
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1009 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP








000
FXUS61 KILN 020209
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1009 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP









000
FXUS61 KILN 012343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP








000
FXUS61 KILN 012343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP







000
FXUS61 KILN 012343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP








000
FXUS61 KILN 012343
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING
E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK
MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT
BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT
LUK/CVG.

SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP







000
FXUS61 KILN 012055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 012055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STALLED BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CONTINUES TO ACT AS
THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORK E ACROSS KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY SOUTH OR
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY IN NW FLOW WILL SWING
E THROUGH KY TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VARYING SOLUTIONS
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT. THE RAP AND THE HRRR
KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. AFT 02-03Z DROPPED THE PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FA AND WENT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A
LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP
TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A
CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W
SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT
STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A
BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A
BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY
AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT
DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE
LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JDR









000
FXUS61 KILN 011817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 011817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 011817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 011817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO VFR WITH VFR CIGS AS WELL. WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE TODAY AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION...A REPEAT OF
THIS MORNINGS LIFR NOT EXPECTED...JUST POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT
KLUK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG/SOUTH OF OHIO
RIVER...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

WITH HIGHER RES MODELS HINTING AT A MESOSCALE COMPLEX NEAR/SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BRIGNING VCSH TO JUST KCVG/KLUK NEAR
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 011515
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 011515
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 011515
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 011515
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1115 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAYS
WEATHER. SOME SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. COOL HIGHS TODAY WITH NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLOUDS FROM WRAP AROUND DEPARTING LOW NOW OVER
NE ONTARIO...AND CLOUDS ALSO NEAR/SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 011043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RARE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EVENING...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH ALREADY ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS ANY CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 011043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RARE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EVENING...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH ALREADY ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS ANY CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF
SITES...SANS KDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AS FOG/STRATUS EXITS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ALL VFR BY 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP
UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 010817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RARE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EVENING...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH ALREADY ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS ANY CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 010817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RARE DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EVENING...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH ALREADY ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS...AS ANY CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY NOT LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...AS
THE LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE STORM TRACK COMING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS STILL BEING HANDLED INCONSISTENTLY BY
THE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW...AND POWERED BY SPEEDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SEMI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OUTSIDE
OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...SO POPS WILL BE KEPT HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...HOW THIS FRONT SHIFTS WITH TIME (AND ESPECIALLY THE
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CENTERS ALONG IT) REMAINS SOMETHING THAT IS
BEING MODELED DIFFERENTLY ON A NEARLY RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE POSITION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN THAT
THESE NUMBERS COULD STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF WHAT ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 010557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 010557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 010557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 010557
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH
12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT
OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY
EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A
LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








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