Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KILN 272323
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...HIGH-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
ON SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...AND REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
AND RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272323
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...HIGH-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
ON SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...AND REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
AND RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272323
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
623 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...HIGH-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.

WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
ON SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS
SNOW...AND REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
AND RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272135
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272135
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 272135
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 272135
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST
BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE...
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW
PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA
PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN
DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT
AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK
SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED
WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW.

STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS
THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT
FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE
FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
5TH PERIOD.

TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE
LOWER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO
START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN
FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES
AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN
UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE
BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
FLURRIES AT THE KCMH/KLCK CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL EITHER BE CALM
OR LIGHT EASTERLY. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH WAA ALOFT WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WAA INDUCED MVFR
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT CEILINGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 271503
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SATELLITE...OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON. THEREAFTER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY...
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH. SOME
RECORD LOW MAXES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE 15...18...AND 18
AT DAY...CMH...AND CVG RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREA
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY WITH SOME OF THE
SNOW THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREA
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY WITH SOME OF THE
SNOW THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KILN 271139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREA
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY WITH SOME OF THE
SNOW THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 270958
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE
FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KILN 270958
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE
FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KILN 270613
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME
SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA.
AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE
AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE
FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 270613
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
113 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME
SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA.
AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE
AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE
FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 270152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
852 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME
SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA.
AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE
AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE MVFR CIGS PUSHING OUT OF AREA...STILL LINGERING
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS TO KEEP MVFR VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TIMEFRAME. FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED EARLIER ISNT APPEARING
AS MUCH OF A MVFR CIG ISSUE...SO VFR CIGS UNTIL CLEARING AFTER
06-09Z. FOR BEYOND 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH VFR
VSBYS AND SCATTERED STRATO CU.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR







000
FXUS61 KILN 270152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
852 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SOME CHANGES INCLUDE LINGERING FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
SOUTH...WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS SOME SKY COVER CHANGES AS SOME
SCATTERED TO EVEN CLEARING CONDITIONS IN THE NW FCST AREA.
AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY SCATTER...ALLOWING DRY/COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO BREAK. WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA BECOMING MSTLY CLEAR...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE
AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE MVFR CIGS PUSHING OUT OF AREA...STILL LINGERING
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS TO KEEP MVFR VSBYS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
TIMEFRAME. FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED EARLIER ISNT APPEARING
AS MUCH OF A MVFR CIG ISSUE...SO VFR CIGS UNTIL CLEARING AFTER
06-09Z. FOR BEYOND 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH VFR
VSBYS AND SCATTERED STRATO CU.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 262116
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW PHASES WITH MEAN TROF AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALL
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION
AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY BEFORE COMING TO AN END. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 TO -22 DEG
C TO SETTLE INTO NW OHIO BY MORNING. VERY COLD LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
SOUTH. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE
WITH RESULTANT WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACRS THE
NORTH. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 262116
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL FLOW PHASES WITH MEAN TROF AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALL
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION
AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY BEFORE COMING TO AN END. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 TO -22 DEG
C TO SETTLE INTO NW OHIO BY MORNING. VERY COLD LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
SOUTH. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE
WITH RESULTANT WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACRS THE
NORTH. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE
TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT
CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY
(1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP
UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START
OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE
PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...
POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER
UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING
IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF
REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO
NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 261755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 261504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261504
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 261447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 261447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261447
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 261106
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 261106
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 261106
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 260934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT









000
FXUS61 KILN 260934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 260934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING
EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH
DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS.  MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT
MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT









000
FXUS61 KILN 260527
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1227 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE RECENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS FOR THE TWO SYSTEMS SKIMMING PAST THE ILN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN
OVER INDIANA...BUT THUS FAR ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAVE REPORTED SNOW. THE 00Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AROUND
750MB-900MB...AND OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SPOTS WHERE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...CEILINGS HAVE YET TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW ABOUT
4000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THAT SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON AN
ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP ITS IMPACTS OUT OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST
AREA...NECESSITATING KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO GET THICKER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN AS QUICK AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD
SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS.
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF
FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 260241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE RECENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS FOR THE TWO SYSTEMS SKIMMING PAST THE ILN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN
OVER INDIANA...BUT THUS FAR ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAVE REPORTED SNOW. THE 00Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AROUND
750MB-900MB...AND OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SPOTS WHERE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...CEILINGS HAVE YET TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW ABOUT
4000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THAT SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON AN
ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP ITS IMPACTS OUT OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST
AREA...NECESSITATING KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO GET THICKER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN AS QUICK AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 260241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE RECENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS FOR THE TWO SYSTEMS SKIMMING PAST THE ILN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN
OVER INDIANA...BUT THUS FAR ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAVE REPORTED SNOW. THE 00Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AROUND
750MB-900MB...AND OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SPOTS WHERE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...CEILINGS HAVE YET TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW ABOUT
4000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THAT SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON AN
ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP ITS IMPACTS OUT OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST
AREA...NECESSITATING KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO GET THICKER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN AS QUICK AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 260241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE RECENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS FOR THE TWO SYSTEMS SKIMMING PAST THE ILN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN
OVER INDIANA...BUT THUS FAR ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAVE REPORTED SNOW. THE 00Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AROUND
750MB-900MB...AND OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SPOTS WHERE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...CEILINGS HAVE YET TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW ABOUT
4000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THAT SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON AN
ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP ITS IMPACTS OUT OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST
AREA...NECESSITATING KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO GET THICKER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN AS QUICK AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 260241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE RECENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS FOR THE TWO SYSTEMS SKIMMING PAST THE ILN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN
OVER INDIANA...BUT THUS FAR ONLY A COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE HAVE REPORTED SNOW. THE 00Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AROUND
750MB-900MB...AND OUTSIDE OF THE FEW SPOTS WHERE SNOW IS
OCCURRING...CEILINGS HAVE YET TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW ABOUT
4000 FEET. THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THAT SNOW WILL NOT SPREAD VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON AN
ORIENTATION THAT WILL KEEP ITS IMPACTS OUT OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST
AREA...NECESSITATING KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO GET THICKER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT
FALLEN AS QUICK AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 252305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 252305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 252305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 252305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...AND SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. THE THINKING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT...PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH AND MVFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE SNOW PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

ALTHOUGH SNOW IS ONLY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET DURING AND AFTER THE SNOW
FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON
THURSDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 252124
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHIFTING EAST AND LIKELY DIMINISHING TO A
FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 252124
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS
EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE
GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR
FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS
SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE
MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS
IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH
DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO
DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY
FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTN.

TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C
TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
HWO PRODUCT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS
FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO
THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHIFTING EAST AND LIKELY DIMINISHING TO A
FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 251810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AS AN
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND IT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ENHANCED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE FROM TWO
SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHIFTING EAST AND LIKELY DIMINISHING TO A
FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN







000
FXUS61 KILN 251810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AS AN
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND IT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ENHANCED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE FROM TWO
SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHIFTING EAST AND LIKELY DIMINISHING TO A
FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 251514
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AS AN
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND IT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ENHANCED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE FROM TWO
SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU HAVE CLEARED AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING S/W IN NORTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DOMINANT TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF PLAINS SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. SOME STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF LAKES. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT. S/W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TOWARD TAF SITES. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 251514
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AS AN
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND IT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ENHANCED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE FROM TWO
SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU HAVE CLEARED AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING S/W IN NORTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DOMINANT TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF PLAINS SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. SOME STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF LAKES. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT. S/W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TOWARD TAF SITES. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 251112
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING HAS BEEN WORKING QUICKLY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU HAVE CLEARED AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF
APROACHING S/W IN NORTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DOMINANT TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF PLAINS SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. SOME STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF LAKES. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT. S/W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TOWARD TAF SITES. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 251112
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING HAS BEEN WORKING QUICKLY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATOCU HAVE CLEARED AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF
APROACHING S/W IN NORTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DOMINANT TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF PLAINS SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. SOME STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF LAKES. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT. S/W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES TOWARD TAF SITES. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 250924
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
424 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING HAS BEEN WORKING QUICKLY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO
THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT
THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. THEREAFTER ONLY EXPECT HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 250529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AROUND CHICAGO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST AND BISECT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AND ECHOES ARE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEARING BY SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN.
NOT SEEING MUCH DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE RAISED READINGS TONIGHT WHICH ENDED
UP WITH WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SHIFT
FLOW TO THE NNE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF
THE WSW...AS THE NEXT LOBE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP ITS
AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER A CALM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY...A COMPLICATED BUT FAIRLY LOW-IMPACT
WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS IN THE ALIGNMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM SEPARATE STREAMS...AND THEIR INEVITABLE INTERACTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
NOT JOIN UP OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACKS TO KEEP THE WHOLE CWA IN A SIMILAR
REGIME FOR POPS. THE 12Z NAM12 IS AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE...WHILE
SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA (IF IT EVEN GETS THAT FAR NORTH). NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT ANY
LOCATION...NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT VERY MUCH CONCERN...SO THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ASSESS HOW THIS SCENARIO IS GOING TO UNFOLD BEFORE
WORRYING ABOUT POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN (WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. THEREAFTER ONLY EXPECT HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT








000
FXUS61 KILN 250529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AROUND CHICAGO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST AND BISECT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AND ECHOES ARE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEARING BY SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN.
NOT SEEING MUCH DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE RAISED READINGS TONIGHT WHICH ENDED
UP WITH WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SHIFT
FLOW TO THE NNE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF
THE WSW...AS THE NEXT LOBE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP ITS
AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER A CALM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY...A COMPLICATED BUT FAIRLY LOW-IMPACT
WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS IN THE ALIGNMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM SEPARATE STREAMS...AND THEIR INEVITABLE INTERACTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
NOT JOIN UP OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACKS TO KEEP THE WHOLE CWA IN A SIMILAR
REGIME FOR POPS. THE 12Z NAM12 IS AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE...WHILE
SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA (IF IT EVEN GETS THAT FAR NORTH). NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT ANY
LOCATION...NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT VERY MUCH CONCERN...SO THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ASSESS HOW THIS SCENARIO IS GOING TO UNFOLD BEFORE
WORRYING ABOUT POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN (WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. THEREAFTER ONLY EXPECT HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT







000
FXUS61 KILN 250219
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AROUND CHICAGO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST AND BISECT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AND ECHOES ARE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEARING BY SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN.
NOT SEEING MUCH DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE RAISED READINGS TONIGHT WHICH ENDED
UP WITH WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SHIFT
FLOW TO THE NNE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF
THE WSW...AS THE NEXT LOBE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP ITS
AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER A CALM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY...A COMPLICATED BUT FAIRLY LOW-IMPACT
WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS IN THE ALIGNMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM SEPARATE STREAMS...AND THEIR INEVITABLE INTERACTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
NOT JOIN UP OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACKS TO KEEP THE WHOLE CWA IN A SIMILAR
REGIME FOR POPS. THE 12Z NAM12 IS AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE...WHILE
SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA (IF IT EVEN GETS THAT FAR NORTH). NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT ANY
LOCATION...NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT VERY MUCH CONCERN...SO THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ASSESS HOW THIS SCENARIO IS GOING TO UNFOLD BEFORE
WORRYING ABOUT POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN (WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. THEREAFTER ONLY EXPECT HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 250219
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AROUND CHICAGO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST AND BISECT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AND ECHOES ARE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. BUT HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERN
SECTIONS CLEARING BY SUNRISE WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN.
NOT SEEING MUCH DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE RAISED READINGS TONIGHT WHICH ENDED
UP WITH WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SHIFT
FLOW TO THE NNE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF
THE WSW...AS THE NEXT LOBE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP ITS
AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER A CALM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY...A COMPLICATED BUT FAIRLY LOW-IMPACT
WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE CHALLENGE IS IN THE ALIGNMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
FROM SEPARATE STREAMS...AND THEIR INEVITABLE INTERACTION OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
NOT JOIN UP OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACKS TO KEEP THE WHOLE CWA IN A SIMILAR
REGIME FOR POPS. THE 12Z NAM12 IS AN OUTLIER WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE...WHILE
SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA (IF IT EVEN GETS THAT FAR NORTH). NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE SUPPORTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO AT ANY
LOCATION...NOT ENOUGH TO PRESENT VERY MUCH CONCERN...SO THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ASSESS HOW THIS SCENARIO IS GOING TO UNFOLD BEFORE
WORRYING ABOUT POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN (WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM.  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO
MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.  A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY LOWERING TO MVFR IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. THEREAFTER ONLY EXPECT HIGH AND PERHAPS SOME
MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities