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000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 221048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 220759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 220611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.



.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 220240
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 212342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 212117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 211750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 211238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 211238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 211041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES







000
FXUS61 KILN 210559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 210154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA. PEA SIZE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND FOR VSBYS TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 210006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210006
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
806 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SOME OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK. LOWER CIGS WILL WORK
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KCMH AND KLCK ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...NOVAK







000
FXUS61 KILN 202014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN
THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND
MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL
AFTER SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 202014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE.

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN
THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND
MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL
AFTER SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED TO INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVE COLD AT
700MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AS THIS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAK/NARROW INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...VERY SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN
THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND
MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL
AFTER SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED TO INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVE COLD AT
700MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AS THIS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAK/NARROW INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...VERY SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN
THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND
MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL
AFTER SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED TO INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVE COLD AT
700MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AS THIS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAK/NARROW INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...VERY SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1043 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED TO INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVE COLD AT
700MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AS THIS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAK/NARROW INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...VERY SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







000
FXUS61 KILN 201259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 201050
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 201050
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 200841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR
LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE
PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500` DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE
CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM
A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL
INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR.

L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF
SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK.
REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS









000
FXUS61 KILN 200841
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR
LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE
PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500` DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE
CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM
A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL
INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR.

L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF
SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK.
REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 200625
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY
GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/
AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER
CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH
THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO
36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO
FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A
FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP
GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING
OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN
GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED
THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH
PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS
DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN
IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND
THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN
THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN
OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT
SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY.
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR
LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE
PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500` DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE
CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM
A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL
INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR.

L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF
SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK.
REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS








000
FXUS61 KILN 200151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY
GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/
AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER
CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH
THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO
36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO
FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A
FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP
GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING
OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN
GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED
THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH
PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS
DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN
IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND
THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN
THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN
OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT
SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY.
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH
AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT
ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD
KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE
30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU










000
FXUS61 KILN 200151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY
GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/
AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER
CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH
THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO
36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO
FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A
FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP
GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING
OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN
GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED
THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH
PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS
DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN
IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND
THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN
THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN
OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT
SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY.
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH
AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT
ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD
KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE
30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU









000
FXUS61 KILN 200027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
827 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH NEUTRAL AND THEN WAA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SEASONAL
LOWS TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH UPR 30S EAST
WITH MORE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACHING S/WV AND LL FLOW STILL FROM THE SE IN THIS AREA. HAVE
KEPT OFF THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE DRIER LOW/MID
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY.
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH
AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT
ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD
KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE
30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU








000
FXUS61 KILN 200027
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
827 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH NEUTRAL AND THEN WAA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SEASONAL
LOWS TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH UPR 30S EAST
WITH MORE CLEARING AHEAD OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACHING S/WV AND LL FLOW STILL FROM THE SE IN THIS AREA. HAVE
KEPT OFF THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE DRIER LOW/MID
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY.
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE
50S SOUTH.

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH
AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT
ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD
KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE
30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU









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