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000
FXUS61 KILN 241043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...KLUK HAS DEVELOPED LIFR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEPART THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOWER MVFR CLOUDS
(3000-6000 FEET) EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AIRPORTS BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS
THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KLUK.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 240529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS
THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KLUK.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS









000
FXUS61 KILN 240140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 232333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 232021
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST
AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 231723
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH FULL SUN...12Z ILN
SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF 59 DEGREES TODAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST
AND CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT
IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES IN
THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 231319
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
FA THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH FULL SUN...12Z ILN
SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING A HIGH OF 59 DEGREES TODAY. WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE HAS ERODED THE SC.


CIRRUS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 TROF IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KLUK....POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR...BUT THE BUILDING CI WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS.

IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAFS CIGS DROP DOWN TO 5K FT. THERE MIGHT BE A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AFT 12Z THU...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS TO
LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 231041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER
IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING
AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE HAS ERODED THE SC.


CIRRUS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 TROF IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY...BECOMING BROKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KLUK....POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR...BUT THE BUILDING CI WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS.

IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAFS CIGS DROP DOWN TO 5K FT. THERE MIGHT BE A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AFT 12Z THU...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS TO
LOW TO MENTION RIGHT NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 230821
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER
IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING
AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 230821
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER
IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING
AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY.

ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT
GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY
COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO
SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE.

THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 230559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 230205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 230205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 230019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSELY WATCHING THE LOWEST LEVEL RH AND WIND FIELDS ON THE RAP
FOR ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD DEPARTURE. CONCERNS ARE THE NEAR NON-
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD IN
THE 925 LAYER EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE...AS IF THE RAP 925 IS CORRECT...THERE MAY BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING DOWN VERY CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING AND THEREFOR FROST WILL BE
FROM THE DAYTON AREA NORTHWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 230019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSELY WATCHING THE LOWEST LEVEL RH AND WIND FIELDS ON THE RAP
FOR ASSESSMENT OF CLOUD DEPARTURE. CONCERNS ARE THE NEAR NON-
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD IN
THE 925 LAYER EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE...AS IF THE RAP 925 IS CORRECT...THERE MAY BE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING DOWN VERY CLOSE TO AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING AND THEREFOR FROST WILL BE
FROM THE DAYTON AREA NORTHWARD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
PUSHED BACK CLEARING TIMES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ESPECIALLY KCVG/KLUK
WHERE THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD. BEST CHANCES
OF CLEARING JUST AFTER 06Z WILL BE AT KDAY.

HAVE GONE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR








000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 221305
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR
EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL
RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 221048
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A
HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT
THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK
SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE
MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL
THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL
LATE AFTN.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 220759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S.

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES









000
FXUS61 KILN 220611
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.



.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 220240
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1040 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
BREAKS INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE ROTATING
AROUND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SO THESE GAPS ARE BEING FILLED
IN. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION TO THE DECK ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 212342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING. APPEARS THAT SOME CLEARING MAY WORK INTO THE
CINCINNATI AREA AFTER 07Z. BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL NOT
STILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CEILING. SO ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME
MVFR WITH KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW 2000 FT. LOWER
DECK WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z ALTHOUGH A VFR CEILING MAY PERSIST AT
SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 212117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 211750
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL








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