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000
FXUS61 KILN 162257
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
657 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO
THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY
AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID
40S SW.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH
THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY
WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS. A FEW CUMULUS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR DAYTON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD,

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS








000
FXUS61 KILN 161948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO
THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY
AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID
40S SW.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH
THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY
WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 161811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A MODIFYING
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE
PROGRAM AT THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 161435
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1035 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
TOWARD THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A MODIFYING
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE 30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE
PROGRAM AT THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 161033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES UNTIL SUNRISE.
FROST WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONG MID APRIL SUN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM AT
THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 160713
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AND WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES UNTIL SUNRISE.
FROST WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING. STRONG MID APRIL SUN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM AT
THIS TIME.

RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA
ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.

ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL
VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...JUST EXPECT TO JUST SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 160532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF. THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NEAR RECORD LOW
MINIMA.

RECORDS LOWS FOR APRIL 16
CMH 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935
CVG 24 DEGREES IN 1875
DAY 23 DEGREES IN 1962

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY.

THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND
850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR
900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY
AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE
GRIDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
HWO OR CONSIDER ISSUING A HEADLINE.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY
SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY.  THERE IS AGAIN
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTIONED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...JUST EXPECT TO JUST SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 160203
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1003 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN IN CENTRAL OHIO AND
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF. THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NEAR RECORD LOW
MINIMA.

RECORDS LOWS FOR APRIL 16
CMH 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935
CVG 24 DEGREES IN 1875
DAY 23 DEGREES IN 1962

WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY.

THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND
850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR
900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY
AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE
GRIDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
HWO OR CONSIDER ISSUING A HEADLINE.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY
SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY.  THERE IS AGAIN
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTIONED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 152327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
727 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH THE ILN CWA
IN A REGIME OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CUMULUS (WITH
FLURRIES EVIDENT ON RADAR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON).
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM HAS BEEN PASSED.
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AT AROUND 06Z...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FROM THE COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...LEADING TO A LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT COMES VERY CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CMH: 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935
CVG: 24 DEGREES IN 1875
DAY: 23 DEGREES IN 1962

THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE MODEL
SPREAD...EASILY SUPPORTING A CONTINUANCE OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE AREAS WHERE THAT PROGRAM IS ACTIVE...AND A FORECAST OF
WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGHOUT THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY.

THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND
850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR
900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY
AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE
GRIDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
HWO OR CONSIDER ISSUING A HEADLINE.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY
SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY.  THERE IS AGAIN
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTIONED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 152325
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH THE ILN CWA
IN A REGIME OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CUMULUS (WITH
FLURRIES EVIDENT ON RADAR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON).
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM HAS BEEN PASSED.
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AT AROUND 06Z...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FROM THE COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...LEADING TO A LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT COMES VERY CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CMH: 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935
CVG: 24 DEGREES IN 1875
DAY: 23 DEGREES IN 1962

THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE MODEL
SPREAD...EASILY SUPPORTING A CONTINUANCE OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE AREAS WHERE THAT PROGRAM IS ACTIVE...AND A FORECAST OF
WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGHOUT THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY.

THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND
850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR
900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY
AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE
GRIDS...BUT

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY
SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY.  THERE IS AGAIN
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTIONED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 152022
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH THE ILN CWA
IN A REGIME OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME INSTABILITY-DRIVEN CUMULUS (WITH
FLURRIES EVIDENT ON RADAR FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON).
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM HAS BEEN PASSED.
CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY MID EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AT AROUND 06Z...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FROM THE COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...LEADING TO A LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT COMES VERY CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES.
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

CMH: 22 DEGREES IN 1962/1935
CVG: 24 DEGREES IN 1875
DAY: 23 DEGREES IN 1962

THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE MODEL
SPREAD...EASILY SUPPORTING A CONTINUANCE OF THE FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE AREAS WHERE THAT PROGRAM IS ACTIVE...AND A FORECAST OF
WIDESPREAD FROST THROUGHOUT THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ILN CWA...IN A GENERALLY-NORTHEAST DIRECTION
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FLOW PATTERN THAT ALLOWS
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY.

THE WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
CHANGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WITH SUN AND MIXING (THROUGH AROUND
850MB) EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION NEAR
900MB WILL INCREASE...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY UNLIKELY...AND FROST POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION...WITH DRY
AIR AND SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME FROST WAS ADDED TO THE
GRIDS...BUT

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT WARMER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA GETTING INTO THE 60S. THOUGH A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN GENERAL ONLY
SOME PATCHES OR STREAKS OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE EXPECTED. LATE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PICK UP IN
STRENGTH...IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS.  AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY.  THERE IS AGAIN
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTIONED.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEN...AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
14Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 151800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MID LEVEL UPR TROF AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LITTLE IF NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...AND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR SW CWFA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES FIRMLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEN...AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TO AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ONLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
14Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 151629
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MID LEVEL UPR TROF AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LITTLE IF NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...AND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR SW CWFA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES FIRMLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN JUST WEST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE
AREA. IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SUPPOSE A FEW OF
THESE COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 151425
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL EXIT OUR FAR ERN CWFA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MID LEVEL UPR TROF AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LITTLE IF NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...AND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR SW CWFA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES FIRMLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN JUST WEST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE
AREA. IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SUPPOSE A FEW OF
THESE COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 151045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED WEST OF I-75
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE...THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP WILL FALL OUT OF THIS BAND THIS MORNING AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF I-71...WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALL SNOW.
AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVELY LESSER PROPORTION
OF THEIR PRECIP FALL AS SNOW...DUE TO A LAG IN COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME OF THE SNOWFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY BE LOST AS IT REACHES THE SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAUSING MELTING AS IT MEETS SURFACE RADIATION. THIS
COMPLICATES THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME REDUCTION DUE TO THIS MELTING ON THE GROUND. ELEVATED
SURFACES MAY BE MORE IMMUNE TO THIS MELTING. AM FORECASTING 1 TO 2
INCHES TO STICK TO THE SURFACES FROM THE DAYTON AREA EAST TO
COLUMBUS AND POINTS NORTHWARD. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUN
BEGINNING TO SHOW LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN JUST WEST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE
AREA. IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SUPPOSE A FEW OF
THESE COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 150737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED WEST OF I-75
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE...THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP WILL FALL OUT OF THIS BAND THIS MORNING AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF I-71...WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALL SNOW.
AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVELY LESSER PROPORTION
OF THEIR PRECIP FALL AS SNOW...DUE TO A LAG IN COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME OF THE SNOWFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY BE LOST AS IT REACHES THE SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAUSING MELTING AS IT MEETS SURFACE RADIATION. THIS
COMPLICATES THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME REDUCTION DUE TO THIS MELTING ON THE GROUND. ELEVATED
SURFACES MAY BE MORE IMMUNE TO THIS MELTING. AM FORECASTING 1 TO 2
INCHES TO STICK TO THE SURFACES FROM THE DAYTON AREA EAST TO
COLUMBUS AND POINTS NORTHWARD. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUN
BEGINNING TO SHOW LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA WITH -SN NOW FALLING AT KCVG AND KDAY. THIS IS PERHAPS
AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BY ABOUT AN HOUR AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. CAA IS PRETTY STRONG SO WHILE THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. HEAVIEST PCPN/LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS OUR
AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL








000
FXUS61 KILN 150532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT CHANGING
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND CENTER ITSELF
ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
FLOW WILL LET THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT STILL TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS INTO THE
30S IN THE NORTHWEST. RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
INDIANA. EARLIER THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF SLEET. SO THAT REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITION OCCURS.

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-71 WITH PERHAPS ONLY A
DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH SOUTH/EAST OF THERE. WARM GROUND WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY GUIDANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE AN INITIAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW SHORTLY AFTER
CHANGEOVER WHICH COULD PRODUCE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION. EXPECT
ROADWAYS TO BE FINE FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH SOME BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES COULD GET SLICK IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING
OFF IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK.

FORECAST LOW LOOK ON TRACK AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PART OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW
COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO
FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE
IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA WITH -SN NOW FALLING AT KCVG AND KDAY. THIS IS PERHAPS
AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BY ABOUT AN HOUR AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. CAA IS PRETTY STRONG SO WHILE THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. HEAVIEST PCPN/LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS OUR
AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092-094-095.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL









000
FXUS61 KILN 150250
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1050 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT CHANGING
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND CENTER ITSELF
ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
FLOW WILL LET THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT STILL TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD DO SO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS INTO THE
30S IN THE NORTHWEST. RAIN HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
INDIANA. EARLIER THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF SLEET. SO THAT REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITION OCCURS.

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-71 WITH PERHAPS ONLY A
DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH SOUTH/EAST OF THERE. WARM GROUND WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY GUIDANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE AN INITIAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW SHORTLY AFTER
CHANGEOVER WHICH COULD PRODUCE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION. EXPECT
ROADWAYS TO BE FINE FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH SOME BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES COULD GET SLICK IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING
OFF IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK.

FORECAST LOW LOOK ON TRACK AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PART OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW
COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO
FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE
IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY START MVFR. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. AS COLD AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE
TRANSITION. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST SHORTLY AFTER THE
CHANGE OVER WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL STILL BE
PERIODS OF SNOW TO AROUND 12Z BUT EXPECT LESS INTENSITY AND THUS
BETTER VISIBILITIES AFTER INITIAL BURST. AFTER SNOW ENDS THE
CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT. COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL AROUND OR EVEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 150019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
819 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT CHANGING
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND CENTER ITSELF
ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
FLOW WILL LET THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE MID SOUTH LARGE SCALE LIFT
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH AN AREA
OF RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS ALSO INCREASING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING MORE PRECIPITATION. AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING AT NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MODERATE BURST OF PRECIPITATION...DO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
REGION TO BE WHITE BY DAYBREAK...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND FREEZE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW
COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO
FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE
IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY START MVFR. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. AS COLD AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE
TRANSITION. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST SHORTLY AFTER THE
CHANGE OVER WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL STILL BE
PERIODS OF SNOW TO AROUND 12Z BUT EXPECT LESS INTENSITY AND THUS
BETTER VISIBILITIES AFTER INITIAL BURST. AFTER SNOW ENDS THE
CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT. COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL AROUND OR EVEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 142007
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM TOLEDO TO EVANSVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT...CENTERING ITSELF ALONG THE
OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH FLOW WILL LET
THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
BLOSSOM AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES AMPLE LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO THE REGION. H8 TROUGH IS IN EASTERN OHIO AND PA/WV AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CINCY METRO AREA AND A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN ORDER FOR THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING...STARTING THE LAST HOUR OF THIS PERIOD.

SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE COLD AIR. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET
BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FOR A SNOW PROFILE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WARM NATURE OF THE GROUND ALREADY...I WAS
ABLE TO CUT PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS BY ABOUT A THIRD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW
COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO
FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE
IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO A THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS LOW AND
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME IFR.
LIMITED MENTION OF SHOWERS TO VCSH FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK









000
FXUS61 KILN 141800
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. DUE
TO THIS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AS WELL. WITH THESE VALUES BEING JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL HANDLE THEM WITH AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE
WINDS IN THE HWO.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WILL
BE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND THEN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE HAVE AN ISOLATED CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. ACROSS NW PORTIONS
OF THE FA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AND THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
OUR AREA.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT
CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME
WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS
POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO
PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING
ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...
WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT
LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE
GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED
SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE
SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING
AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO A THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS LOW AND
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME IFR.
LIMITED MENTION OF SHOWERS TO VCSH FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 141446
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1046 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. DUE
TO THIS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AS WELL. WITH THESE VALUES BEING JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL HANDLE THEM WITH AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE
WINDS IN THE HWO.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WILL
BE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND THEN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THERE
IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. ACROSS NW PORTIONS
OF THE FA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AND THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
OUR AREA.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT
CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME
WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS
POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO
PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING
ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...
WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT
LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE
GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED
SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE
SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING
AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY...GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE WEST. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR LATER
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN
CONTINUES. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 141040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE
PCPN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50-60 KNOT 925-850 MB
JET THAT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT PIVOTS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TECHNIQUE OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40-50 KNOT WIND GUSTS MIXING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE PCPN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE BACK TO OUR WEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL WAA...THINK THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE MAY BE
OVERDOING THE WINDS A BIT. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AM LEANING
AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY ATTM AND PLAN ON HANDLING STRONGER WINDS
WITH AN SPS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS SOMEWHAT DRIER ATTM AND THE 00Z
MODELS ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING THE INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS A
RESULT...HOW FAR EAST THIS PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT SO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WEST
THIS MORNING...TAPERING THEM BACK FARTHER EAST. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY MILD...MAINLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE UP
HIGHS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MID 70S SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT NON-DIURNAL TEMPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AS CAA DEVELOPS WITH FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
OUR AREA.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT
CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME
WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS
POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO
PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING
ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...
WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT
LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE
GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED
SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE
SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING
AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY...GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE WEST. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR LATER
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN
CONTINUES. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>054-060>062.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 140751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE
PCPN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50-60 KNOT 925-850 MB
JET THAT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT PIVOTS UP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TECHNIQUE OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40-50 KNOT WIND GUSTS MIXING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE PCPN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE BACK TO OUR WEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL WAA...THINK THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE MAY BE
OVERDOING THE WINDS A BIT. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AM LEANING
AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY ATTM AND PLAN ON HANDLING STRONGER WINDS
WITH AN SPS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS SOMEWHAT DRIER ATTM AND THE 00Z
MODELS ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING THE INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS A
RESULT...HOW FAR EAST THIS PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT SO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WEST
THIS MORNING...TAPERING THEM BACK FARTHER EAST. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY MILD...MAINLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE UP
HIGHS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MID 70S SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT NON-DIURNAL TEMPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AS CAA DEVELOPS WITH FROPA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST
OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS
OUR AREA.

IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT
CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME
WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS
POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO
PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING
ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE
FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...
WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT
LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE
GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED
SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE
SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP
TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING
AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A
LARGE BAND OF RAIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR TERMINALS
STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THIS WEAKENING
BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSES...WHICH COULD RESULT A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE WINDS GUSTS REACH 30 TO 35 KT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS AROUND 21Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITH A STEADY RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 140544
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE EVENING. BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP READINGS QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IF THEY DO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND INDICATIONS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME ARE
THAT ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT THAT SLEET IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS DOWN AND SNOW BECOMES
PREVALENT. AT THIS MOMENT...AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN NORTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RAPID DECREASE
IN PRECIP EARLY TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE REGION TO LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

A RAPID TURN-OFF TO THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND
THERE WILL BE ONLY A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...LOW 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A FULL 25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TODAYS LOWER 80S. MONDAY
HIGHS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH PAST TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED...
WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT
LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE
GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED
SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS
THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE
SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARMING
TREND FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL WORK TO AROUND 50
OR THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED
TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A
LARGE BAND OF RAIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR TERMINALS
STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT
HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THIS WEAKENING
BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSES...WHICH COULD RESULT A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE WINDS GUSTS REACH 30 TO 35 KT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS AROUND 21Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITH A STEADY RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO








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