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000
FXUS61 KILN 301327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR CUT EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW EROSION TO THESE LOWER
CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE
A SOLID BAND. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 301047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 301047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ENCROACHING NEAR THE
KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 300826
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS BEEN THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME FAIRLY SOLID PATCHES AND BANDS OF
STRATOCUMULUS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STUNT THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...IN AN AREA THAT WAS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SOME VERY
COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY CONDITIONS. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL START MORE OF A DISSIPATING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER).

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH AN ADVECTION PATTERN THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOL JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE ARRANGEMENT TODAY WILL
FEATURE MUCH LESS OF A GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH...WHERE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...AND AS ADMITTED BY NWS WPC...THIS LEADS TO SOME
CONFIDENCE CONCERNS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE IN TERMS OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW INTERESTING NOTES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
STEADY HEADED INTO FRIDAY MORNING...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ILN
CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE MAIN DEEPENING TROUGH BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOCUSING ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (WHERE THERE WAS SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION FOR CATEGORICAL POPS) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF ONLY AROUND -5C...NOT TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.

THOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SETUP IS FAIRLY
STRONG...THE SPEED OF THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SEEING NO STRONG REASON TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE...THIS
FORECAST WILL STICK MAINLY TO CONTINUITY...WITH SIMILAR TIMING TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND CLEARING OUT OF THE SCIOTO
VALLEY AFTER 18Z.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE
VERY CLOSELY TIED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS
WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH
RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE DRYING CONDITIONS AND A LOSS OF
ASCENT WILL BE LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. IN THE EASTERN CWA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO)...WRAP-AROUND
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THIS CHANGE HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COLUMBUS METRO AND EASTWARD. EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW (WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR)...THE WET
NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION VERY LOW.
THIS ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ALSO MEANS THAT
SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF
US-68.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING QUITE GUSTY. WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS (SOUTHERN CWA) TO 30 KNOTS (NORTHERN CWA) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL RH WILL BE
EXTREMELY SLOW TO SCOUR OUT ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY...DOING NO FAVORS TO A MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD FORECAST IS ALSO RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THINKING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE AN EASY HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS NOW SLIGHTLY
IN DOUBT FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. THE NEW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS THINKING (AND THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE) IN MULTIPLE SEGMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PUT
READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BKN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AFTER
SUNRISE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PCPN
REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 300559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NW OF INTERSTATE 71
THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SE OF THIS AREA IN OHIO
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR FROST OVERNIGHT. LIMITED
FROST MENTION TO PATCHY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSION. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF FROST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BKN
VFR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED AFTER
SUNRISE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PCPN
REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 300229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NW OF INTERSTATE 71
THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SE OF THIS AREA IN OHIO
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR FROST OVERNIGHT. LIMITED
FROST MENTION TO PATCHY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSION. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF FROST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER
5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 292322
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER
5 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 292020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.



&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...









000
FXUS61 KILN 291743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY REACHED THEIR PEAK IN THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THERE COULD BE STILL BE A FEW DEGREE RISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 291433
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN INDIANA TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO EARLIEST AND BE MOST EXTENSIVE THERE...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN THERE.
ELSEWHERE FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 291054
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 290910
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 290831
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. A WEDGE OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEHIND THE STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND AHEAD
OF ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ADDITION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH AROUND 875MB-850MB. AS THIS MIXING
OCCURS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WNW
FLOW...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW FOR ABOUT A TEN-DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 290545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER LS TO PIVOT NE INTO SRN CANADA TO PSN NR
JAMES BAY BY SUNRISE WED. SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE OF ILN/S
FA BUT A VORT SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF ALONG WITH AN
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ACRS THE SE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING HAVE LINGERED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LONGER AND HELD ONTO CLOUDS A LTL LONGER.
BY 06Z EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE AS FAVORABLE
FORCING EXITS THE REGION.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS.
LOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY.

FOR TODAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
CAA...WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME
SPOTS.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN/AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 290224
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER LS TO PIVOT NE INTO SRN CANADA TO PSN NR
JAMES BAY BY SUNRISE WED. SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE OF ILN/S
FA BUT A VORT SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF ALONG WITH AN
AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ACRS THE SE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING HAVE LINGERED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LONGER AND HELD ONTO CLOUDS A LTL LONGER.
BY 06Z EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE EXITING ALL BUT THE FAR SE AS FAVORABLE
FORCING EXITS THE REGION.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS.
LOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS WHICH BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN WEDNESDAY 8H THERMAL TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP. HAVE
KEPT THESE CIGS VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN 10 TO 15 KTS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 290035
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
835 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
MVFR CIGS WHICH BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR.
LATEST SATL IMGRY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SO
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN WEDNESDAY 8H THERMAL TROF TO SETTLE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP. HAVE
KEPT THESE CIGS VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET.

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN 10 TO 15 KTS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 282100
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FA THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS WELL. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THIS DECREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOWEVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE FROST DEVELOPMENT. WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THIS STILL HAS
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE PATCHY FROST OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FASTER THEN
ADDITIONAL FROST WORDING AND PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK IN FOR THURSDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER AIR LOW WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. IN A REGIME CONTAINING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL
MIX IN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL END AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME
WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR WITH CLEARING THEN WORKING IN AFTER 00Z. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE SOME GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT SO MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND
COULD BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS STILL MEAGER. BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME THUNDER...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE GETTING INTO THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES).
WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL END AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME
WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR WITH CLEARING THEN WORKING IN AFTER 00Z. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE SOME GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT SO MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND
COULD BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 281316
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
916 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY GOTTEN IN WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND. MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL GET
MEASURABLE RAIN ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE MUCH ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70. LITTLE INSTABILITY AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BY SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS. SO
IT APPEARS THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 20Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING THIS ACTIVITY
BY SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION LATE TODAY.

APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH BEYOND CURRENT VALUES
IN THE WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT READINGS COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AND THEN
REBOUND BETWEEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENDING AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. STILL A CHANCE FOR EASTERN SITES TO WARM A LITTLE
INTO MIDDAY DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES).
WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 281055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.

A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT WRAPS NORTHEAST AROUND A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TRAILING FROM THIS SURFACE LOW IS A
LENGTHY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH CHICAGO...ST
LOUIS...AND JUST NORTH OF DALLAS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BECOME LESS DRASTIC WITH TIME...WITH THE EVENTUAL CHANGE IN
DIRECTION OVER THE ILN CWA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...AND CONVERGENCE IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...THERE REMAINS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE QUITE LIGHT IN SOME
PLACES. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE THAT OF
BROKEN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CREATED A CHALLENGE WITH THE
POPS...AS THERE MAY BE SOME DRY SPOTS MIXED WITHIN THE AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE...POPS ARE AT 100 PERCENT...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.

A FAIRLY POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KILN VWP SHOWING WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS
JUST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY ALREADY BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODEL COMPROMISE WOULD SUGGEST AROUND
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...BUT IN A NARROW PROFILE LIMITED BY
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES. SPC SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE
ZERO CHANCE OF CAPE > 1000 J/KG...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EVEN GETTING TO 500 J/KG. THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE IN
TERMS OF NUMBERS (45 KNOTS 0-6KM / 30 KNOTS 0-3KM)...BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL IN TERMS OF ORIENTATION (UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT). THIS ADDS UP TO JUST A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY / SCIOTO VALLEY REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
UNLIKELY...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION (AS
HRRR/WRF-NMM PROJECTIONS INDICATE)...FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
MAX TEMPERATURE GRID WILL USE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN THE MORNING SIGNIFICANTLY AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM...ABOUT
AS WARM AS EVER OBSERVED DURING AN OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LATE
OCTOBER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE SET DURING
THE MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLIEST IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MIN TEMPS
WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY
MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL.

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON
FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT
CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES
COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED
CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20
KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO
INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS...
ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280604
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
204 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO NRN
MN BY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
OHIO VALLEY IN WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS NRN OHIO
AT NOSE OF 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. IN
REGION OF WAA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BUMPING UP CLOUD COVER AND WITH SW WINDS
STAYING UP HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. VERY MILD
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

FOLLOWING LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLN TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
SLIGHTLY...ONLY ALLOWING LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO FAR NW BY
DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURG THE MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
ACRS ILN/S FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO
WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE
23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON
LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME
FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF
CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG 925 MB-850 MB LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
BELIEVE NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL NOT BE MET (RESULTING IN +20
KT/-20 KT GAIN OR LOSS OF AIRSPEED) FOR VARIOUS REASONS. THERE IS
ENOUGH SUSTAINED WIND...LOCAL GUSTINESS...AT THE SURFACE TO
INDICATE SOME MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEED INCREASE IS GRADUAL ENOUGH...AND THE
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SMALL ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE LLWS. THUS...
ANY TURBULENCE WILL MOST LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE DUE TO INCREASING WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LOOKING AT MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY A 4 HOUR
WINDOW OF PCPN AT ALL TAF SITES. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. THREAT OF THUNDER IS LOW
ENOUGH TO JUST MENTION AS VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT NEAR THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF KCMH/KLCK
WHERE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS WELL...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN RATHER QUICKLY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN








000
FXUS61 KILN 280204
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO NRN
MN BY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
OHIO VALLEY IN WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS NRN OHIO
AT NOSE OF 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. IN
REGION OF WAA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BUMPING UP CLOUD COVER AND WITH SW WINDS
STAYING UP HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. VERY MILD
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

FOLLOWING LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLN TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
SLIGHTLY...ONLY ALLOWING LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO FAR NW BY
DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURG THE MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
ACRS ILN/S FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO
WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE
23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON
LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME
FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF
CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ALL TAF SITES IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. A RIBBON OF INSTBY WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HANDLED THIS EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH A VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 3 HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH A CONTD CHC FOR SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...
SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 26 KTS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 280204
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO NRN
MN BY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
OHIO VALLEY IN WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS NRN OHIO
AT NOSE OF 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF ILN/S FA WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. IN
REGION OF WAA EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BUMPING UP CLOUD COVER AND WITH SW WINDS
STAYING UP HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY. VERY MILD
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

FOLLOWING LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOLN TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PRECIP
SLIGHTLY...ONLY ALLOWING LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO FAR NW BY
DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURG THE MORNING AND SPREADING EAST
ACRS ILN/S FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO
WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE
23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON
LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME
FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF
CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ALL TAF SITES IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. A RIBBON OF INSTBY WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HANDLED THIS EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH A VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 3 HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH A CONTD CHC FOR SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...
SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 26 KTS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 272349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT GENERALLY
SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF METRO
DAYTON...MORE TOWARDS MERCER COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO
WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE
23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON
LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME
FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF
CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MONRNIG. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH ALL TAF SITES IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. A RIBBON OF INSTBY WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HANDLED THIS EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH A VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 3 HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH A CONTD CHC FOR SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...
SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 26 KTS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 272000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT GENERALLY
SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF METRO
DAYTON...MORE TOWARDS MERCER COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST CWA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS NOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF IT IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY GIVES THE STORMS SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR TO
WORK WITH. BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE REGION EAST OF ROUTE
23 HAS BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO REACH A PITTSBURGH...PORTSMOUTH...LEXINGTON
LINE BY EVENING AND CONTINUE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. A CHANCE FOR FROST AND SOME
FREEZING CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FROST IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST AS YET WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 36 OR 37. LIGHT WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY PERMIT LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING. IF
CLOUD COVER INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
SO THINK THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDS...BUT
TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT
COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY
SUNDAY MONRNIG. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS
BENEATH BKN CIRRUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 15Z.
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD DOSE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF WESTERN
SITES CVG LUK DAY AND ILN FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THUNDER WILL
OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL REACH
EASTERN SITES CMH AND LCK A BIT LATER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER SO ADDED VCTS THERE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 271744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. IN A REGIME OF GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE...SKY COVER CONSISTS OF SCT CUMULUS
UNDERNEATH SCT TO BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS. WITH AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WARM...AND MORE
HUMID AIR IS ARRIVING WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FOR LATE OCTOBER. 925 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE +18 C TO +20 C RANGE. MIXING THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. AM
FORECASTING HIGHS OF 78...78...AND 81 AT CMH...DAY...AND CVG.
RECORD HIGHS APPEAR SAFE AS THEY ARE 81...81 AND 84 AT
CMH...DAY...AND CVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
RELIANCE ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
ANTICIPATED PCPN.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A MID LVL TROUGH MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV PIVOTING NE THROUGH THE
REGION...ALONG WITH FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING
CATEGORICAL POPS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG...THE 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR IS NOT AT A FAVORABLE ANGLE (LESS THAN 45 DEGREES) TO
THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE PCPN BAND.
THUS...A DECENT MOMENTUM PUSH EAST SEEMS TO BE LACKING THAT YOU
MAY TYPICALLY SEE WITH HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DURING THE COOL SEASON. AS A RESULT...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE
THREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST MODELS SHOULD
CONDITIONS CHANGE. PCPN IS MAINLY KATAFRONT IN NATURE...WHICH
MEANS IT SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRIER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES TO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 10 MPH TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES FRONTAL PCPN OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST CWFA BY
EARLY EVENING. WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AND LOW LEVEL CAA...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO AROUND
50 SOUTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE FROM THE
WEST. SOME CAA CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT MORE TYPICAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THERE COULD
BE A CHANCE FROST IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE PIVOTS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. DEVELOPING CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL CAA
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND WE COULD END UP WITH SOME NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID
40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST TO BE FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONSIST OF SCT CUMULUS
BENEATH BKN CIRRUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 15Z.
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD DOSE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF WESTERN
SITES CVG LUK DAY AND ILN FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THUNDER WILL
OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL REACH
EASTERN SITES CMH AND LCK A BIT LATER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER SO ADDED VCTS THERE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








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