Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KILN 240538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING INTO OUR AREA. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY
BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WILL EVENTUALLY BE
MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT
SAFE AND KEEP FROST ADVISORY FOR LICKING...FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING
COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES
FARTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY
WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS
TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH
A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN
GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN
THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM
FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING
THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL THEN LEAVE JUST
SOME CIRRUS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 240157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING INTO OUR AREA. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY
BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WILL EVENTUALLY BE
MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT
SAFE AND KEEP FROST ADVISORY FOR LICKING...FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING
COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES
FARTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY
WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS
TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH
A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN
GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN
THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM
FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING
THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS AT TAF SITES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE HIGH...BUT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 232316
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A
SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF
WILL EVENTUALLY BE MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK
THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LICKING..FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY
FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY
WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS
TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH
A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN
GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN
THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM
FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING
THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS AT TAF SITES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE HIGH...BUT
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...CONIGLIO








000
FXUS61 KILN 231934
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
334 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY BUT THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A
SPRINKLE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPS SHOULD
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF
WILL EVENTUALLY BE MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT THINK
THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH BUT WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LICKING..FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES WITH A PATCHY
FROST MENTION FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL GET INTO RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON THURSDAY
WITH WAA DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE LIMITING RED FLAG CRITERIA LOOKS
TO BE THE WINDS AS THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION AT THIS TIME IS WITH
A CONTINUED MENTION OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE REMAINING MODELS HAS BEEN SLOWER
AND WILL TREND THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PCPN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WITH
THIS SLOWER TIMING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING BY THE TIME THE PCPN
GETS INTO OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH HEADING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN
THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM
FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING
THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND
POTENTIALLY SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME ON
THURSDAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT EAST TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ056-065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR









000
FXUS61 KILN 231734
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF KCMH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF MORE. DUE TO THIS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE ACROSS THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
30S. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ADDED A PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN TONIGHT IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF KCMH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
25 PERCENT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST HAVING ANY THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED
THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT
GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON
HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME ON
THURSDAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT EAST TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 231501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1101 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF KCMH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF MORE. DUE TO THIS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE ACROSS THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
30S. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ADDED A PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN TONIGHT IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF KCMH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
25 PERCENT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST HAVING ANY THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED
THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT
GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON
HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 231033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF KCMH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF MORE. DUE TO THIS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE ACROSS THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
30S. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ADDED A PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN TONIGHT IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF KCMH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
25 PERCENT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST HAVING ANY THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED
THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT
GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON
HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND THEN
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 230842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF KCMH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF MORE. DUE TO THIS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE ACROSS THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE
30S. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ADDED A PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN TONIGHT IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF KCMH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
25 PERCENT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST HAVING ANY THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING
BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED
THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT
INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT
GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON
HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS COULD STILL BRUSH BY KCMH EARLY AND THEN FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AREA
WIDE. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO NORTHEAST OR EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 230529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER IN STRENGTH.

AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHES OF CI CONTINUE TO SLIP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE QUICK H5 FLOW. MEANWHILE SC DROPPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD POOL IS DROPPING DOWN THRU NRN OHIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SC SHOULD MOVE E BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS COULD STILL BRUSH BY KCMH EARLY AND THEN FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AREA
WIDE. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO NORTHEAST OR EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 230210
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER IN STRENGTH.

AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHES OF CI CONTINUE TO SLIP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE QUICK H5 FLOW. MEANWHILE SC DROPPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD POOL IS DROPPING DOWN THRU NRN OHIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SC SHOULD MOVE E BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CI WILL WORK THRU THE NW H5 FLOW. AN
AREA OF VFR SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 S/W IS WORKING SE ACROSS NRN
OHIO. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME SCT SC TO CMH/LCK FIR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10KTS THRU 04-06Z.

AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...CAA AT H8 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CU TO POP
BY LATE MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE E...BUT EVEN THERE
ONLY WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLIP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 230032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
832 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CI WILL WORK THRU THE NW H5 FLOW. AN
AREA OF VFR SC ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 S/W IS WORKING SE ACROSS NRN
OHIO. THIS MIGHT BRING SOME SCT SC TO CMH/LCK FIR THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10KTS THRU 04-06Z.

AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...CAA AT H8 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CU TO POP
BY LATE MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE E...BUT EVEN THERE
ONLY WENT WITH SCT COVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLIP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTH BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 222031
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA IN A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 221749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN MENTION TO JUST
A SIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST EARLY. GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY SHARP SFC DEW POINT DRYING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY WHICH
SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER ILNS AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURG THE AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

SMALL DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR








000
FXUS61 KILN 221414
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN MENTION TO JUST
A SIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST EARLY. GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY SHARP SFC DEW POINT DRYING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY WHICH
SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER ILNS AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURG THE AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

SMALL DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST VERY LONG WITH MOISTURE DECREASING
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 221049
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST VERY LONG WITH MOISTURE DECREASING
RAPIDLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 220907
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
507 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER
THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO
THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE
WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE
NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD
COVER.

WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE
SOME FIRE WX ISSUES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 220540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA IS WORKING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM.
THE HRRR...AND THE NAM TO SOME EXTENT...HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
THEY MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALONE...FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THE PERIOD VFR WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR SIMPLICITY HAVE
INDICATED PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS THE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...








000
FXUS61 KILN 220207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA IS WORKING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM.
THE HRRR...AND THE NAM TO SOME EXTENT...HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
THEY MOVE THIS FEATURE THRU THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

KEPT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALONE...FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND ARE
WORKING EWD TOWARDS THE TAFS. BASED ON RADAR IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
INITIAL BATCH HAS SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THEM...SO CARRIED A TEMPO
IN THE WRN TAFS THRU 04-05Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 05Z AS CDFNT SWINGS UP THE OH VALLEY.
AS CDFNT GETS CLOSER CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO KEPT MENTION OF TS OUT FOR NOW. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. CLDS WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL BEFORE SCATTERED OUT QUICKLY BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY POST FRONTAL AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 220009
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME ECHO RETURNS
PER KILN RADAR...BUT SINCE THESE ARE FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK...THEY
WERE LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME INITIAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPR
SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDES THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA AND ARE
WORKING EWD TOWARDS THE TAFS. BASED ON RADAR IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
INITIAL BATCH HAS SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THEM...SO CARRIED A TEMPO
IN THE WRN TAFS THRU 04-05Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 05Z AS CDFNT SWINGS UP THE OH VALLEY.
AS CDFNT GETS CLOSER CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF TS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO KEPT MENTION OF TS OUT FOR NOW. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. CLDS WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL BEFORE SCATTERED OUT QUICKLY BETWEEN 14Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY POST FRONTAL AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES








000
FXUS61 KILN 212026
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME ECHO RETURNS
PER KILN RADAR...BUT SINCE THESE ARE FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK...THEY
WERE LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME INITIAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND UPR
SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS LATE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAYS READINGS DUE TO CAA...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL RISE FROM MORNING READINGS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LVL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CAA
STRATOCUMULUS/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE WIND
SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WILL APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO SHOULD LATER
FORECASTS BECOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES. AS OF TODAY...WE HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN CWFA WHICH INCLUDS THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METROS.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE USED 925 MB TEMPERATURES AS A
PROXY FOR FORECASTING HIGHS. THIS METHOD YIELDS VALUES COOLER THAN
MOST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RETURN FLOW/WAA ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WAA PATTERN...BUT THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION KEEPS THIS LOW THREAT TO OUR NW...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO SOME CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE MORNING HAS PASSED...THE ILN CWA
WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LUMBER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL TIMING WITH THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE ONLY
MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW POPS GO AS HIGH AS
60-70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE WEAK...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN USED FOR THE
FORECAST GRIDS.

LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION QUICKLY.
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE LACKING...AND CLEAR SKIES...THE WSW FLOW WILL KEEP THE
BIGGEST DROPS IN TEMPERATURE UNTIL OVERNIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL
UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN.

ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP
DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT
THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE
UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A
STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO
DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30
PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. BY
THAT TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO AM KEEPING THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER SUNRISE...CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE
LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...LATTO








000
FXUS61 KILN 211731
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. BY
THAT TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...SO AM KEEPING THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER SUNRISE...CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY THE
LATE MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO









000
FXUS61 KILN 211303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED HOWEVER AND THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT THE END OF TAFS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KCMH AND KLCK. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KCMH AND KLCK
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 211053
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT THUNDER TO BE ISOLATED HOWEVER AND THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AT THE END OF TAFS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES EXPECT FOR
KCMH AND KLCK. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KCMH AND KLCK
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








000
FXUS61 KILN 210842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD EXPECT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE A VCSH MENTION IN AT THE END OF
THE KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN TAFS. KCMH AND KLCK WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD. HAVE VCSH AND THEN SHRA MOVING INTO THE LONGER KCVG
TAF. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL BY THE END
OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities